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SX Crypto Advisor
Profit from Digital Currency & Blockchain
Issues
    -$400 million USD in Bitcoin sent to exchanges for sale (not bullish)-BTC dropped by $1,000 immediately following last week’s CPI data (inflation)-The higher CPI data means a larger rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 21-ETH Merge was largely a buy the rumor sell the news event as prices ran up ahead of the Merge but have now declined-September historically is not a good month for investors. In fact, since 1950, September has been the worst-performing month of the year for stocks across all major averages.

    -$400 million USD in Bitcoin sent to exchanges for sale (not bullish)-BTC dropped by $1,000 immediately following last week’s CPI data (inflation)-The higher CPI data means a larger rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 21-ETH Merge was largely a buy the rumor sell the news event as prices ran up ahead of the Merge but have now declined-September historically is not a good month for investors. In fact, since 1950, September has been the worst-performing month of the year for stocks across all major averages.

Here are my latest thoughts on the stock market and crypto market, followed by some news on Ethereum…
  • With the S&P 500 back up to 4,200 — just 11% below the all-time-highs — we are officially coming out of the bear market. This has been our stance here at Cabot SX Crypto Advisor over the past several weeks. I am urging readers to begin to consider putting cash to work in the face of historic equity and crypto outflows.
  • July’s 0% month-over-month CPI inflation data was a great sign that pricing pressures are easing.
This week’s edition of Cabot SX Crypto Advisor will be a bit more brief than usual as I recently came down with covid. Luckily, I am vaccinated and recovering well. Each of the past few days has been a bit better than the last.

Wishing all of you good health and good fortune!



Turning to cryptocurrency markets, we are finally seeing the bounce that we all have been waiting for.

We reverted to the mean. Markets have corrected significantly, falling back towards their longer-term averages.
Crypto, which was more resilient than the Nasdaq for a time, has now taken a hit.


This begs the question: What is investible in a time like today?


Thank you to all of our new subscribers, we are extremely excited to have you as readers! We continue to work to bring valuable investment insights to help navigate this environment and generate positive returns. Current subscribers – thank you for sticking with us during this recent downdraft for global markets.
When we launched Cabot SX Crypto Advisor under two months ago, all indices began to experience a significant contraction. As a result, our two model portfolios have remained largely in cash.

We want to take a moment to highlight breadth across the overall markets. Many individual stocks are down well over 50%, while indices have remained more stable. Why? The composition of the S&P 500 is weighted heavily towards mega-cap technology companies. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Google remain near all-time highs, bolstered by the overall current flight to quality. Investors remain enticed by buybacks, splits, and fundamental cash flow generation.

Many investors are simply asking themselves: what do I buy right now if anything at all?



Demand for unprofitable assets has fallen off precipitously.

Becoming a great investor stems from a passion for learning. Learning new things is what gets me up every morning.

In Cabot SX Crypto Advisor, I will always make my best attempt to distill information concisely and clearly to you the audience so that you can make more informed, independent decisions.



This type of character development transcends assets and instead enables us to develop a rigorous, analytical framework. Sound and lucrative investments take conviction and time to compound. Therefore, concrete theses must be built piece by piece from solid research to identify great businesses and the correct holding period.

Updates
The ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF (BITI) launched on Tuesday, June 21. This is the first ETF of its kind launched in U.S. markets, catering to investors (and bears) who are looking to hedge their cryptocurrency holdings. As active investors here at Cabot, we believe the launch of this product to be a compelling way for our readers to profit from short-term declines in cryptocurrency markets and offers a new way to hedge our long portfolio.
FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Sam Bankman Fried, remains well capitalized and has been stepping in to provide liquidity to other firms such as Voyager Digital and BlockFi. The FTX US exchange continues to be a great option for our traders to utilize. Other exchanges that I recommend are Coinbase and Binance. These “big three” crypto trading platforms have significantly less liquidity issues and better risk profiles when compared to other niche players.
The Federal Reserve will meet on June 15, where it is expected they will raise interest rates by half of a percentage point for a consecutive time.

Rate hikes historically are seen as a way to fight inflation, as May consumer prices rose 8.6% y/y. This number was slightly higher than expected, resulting in price declines across global markets.

We reiterate our bullish call that the highest-quality names have likely bottomed. This thesis stems from the fundamental financial performance of the names we have been tracking. As these companies have delivered high-quality earnings reports, their positive financial results have de-risked the process of investing in these great businesses. They are worth owning today, to hold well into the future, making it a compelling time to invest in areas like cloud computing, enterprise and SME software, semiconductors, financial technology, and cryptocurrency.
In our view, the best, quality assets bottomed last week. After months of heavy selling across a myriad of asset classes, BITO is up 10% today on heavy volume. We reiterate this ETF as a BUY and feel this is an attractive entry point to own Bitcoin.
In the coming months, we expect to be more aggressive in our portfolio allocation, gaining exposure to high-quality U.S. equities and crypto assets. The multi-month decline in prices have increased the expected return of these assets.


According to a recent study published by the Federal Reserve, 12% of U.S. adults have used cryptocurrency as either an investment or a way to transact in 2021. This number has increased from the prior year, when only 5% of the population were counted as users.

One of our most bullish theses is the continuation of user adoption. More people globally will turn to cryptocurrency as both a medium of exchange and as an investment.

ENS is the GoDaddy of Defi. In this week’s market update we will highlight this lesser-known investment opportunity.
Over the weekend, Bill Gurley tweeted his perspective on valuation and global markets. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, a venture capital firm in Menlo Park, CA. Benchmark has invested in many defining companies including Uber, Zillow, and Grubhub.
His tweets echo what we have been preaching here at Cabot SX Crypto Advisor since inception.


In the market today, how many companies can you confidently say you are comfortable owning for the next 25 years?

Those names are on a short list. Companies that come to mind include Apple, Google, Tesla, and Amazon.



According to studies performed by Wharton, the average tenure of a company in the S&P 500 is 21 years, compared to 36 years in 1965. This means stock picking is an art and companies often have an expiration date.

Prices have been pushed lower across the board for stocks and crypto, as traders look to appropriately price riskier assets in a rising interest rate environment. The VIX has moved higher and is now over 23 as demand for option protection has increased.

Correlation between stocks and crypto assets have been positive, especially in recent months. According to Bloomberg, and Arcane Research, BTC has a correlation to the S&P of .40. For BTC to truly hedge, it would be important to see inverse correlation via a negative coefficient.


Alerts
Bitcoin is rallying today up 4.61% when compared to the broader market which is flat. The Nasdaq is up slightly, with small caps leading today’s modest rally.
Today we are adding Arista Networks (ANET) to our Watchlist.
We launched Cabot SX Crypto Advisor during a time of extreme global uncertainty.
We are adding the Proshares Strategy Bitcoin ETF, ticker symbol: BITO to our stock portfolio today. We are purchasing a quarter of our expected total position of 10%. There are several reasons why we may increase the weight to overweight and bring our total holdings over 10% in time. We highlight these below.
Terra (LUNA) is demonstrating very strong intraday price action – moving from $82 to $87. It is now up over 8% on a day when other names are flat or negative. LUNA is outperforming broader indices.

Since first recommending LUNA several weeks ago, price has been volatile. Today, we reiterate our conviction in holding LUNA over a multi-year period.