Issues
Housekeeping: Seeing as next Monday is Presidents’ Day, your next issue will be Tuesday, February 18.
When we look at the overall evidence, we continue to see more good than bad out there: Most indexes are testing the top end of their ranges; we see more breakouts than breakdowns among growth stocks; earnings season has gone well so far; and all of this has happened as headline uncertainty has crept into the picture. That said, we’re still waiting for buyers to truly step up, as most peppy stocks are still seeing lots of selling on strength and most every index is trending sideways. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 for now but could move that meaningfully by week’s end depending on how things go.
All that said there are opportunities out there, and this week’s list has many of them, with a ton of recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick has turned super-strong after earnings as investors look forward to what should be a huge 2025 and 2026.
When we look at the overall evidence, we continue to see more good than bad out there: Most indexes are testing the top end of their ranges; we see more breakouts than breakdowns among growth stocks; earnings season has gone well so far; and all of this has happened as headline uncertainty has crept into the picture. That said, we’re still waiting for buyers to truly step up, as most peppy stocks are still seeing lots of selling on strength and most every index is trending sideways. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 for now but could move that meaningfully by week’s end depending on how things go.
All that said there are opportunities out there, and this week’s list has many of them, with a ton of recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick has turned super-strong after earnings as investors look forward to what should be a huge 2025 and 2026.
Though the market has been stagnant of late, its resilience in the face of the DeepSeek surprise, a barrage of tariff news and threats, an uncertain interest-rate climate and ongoing geopolitical strife has actually been impressive. It’s clear stocks want to go up, if they can just get a sufficient catalyst. For now, the best earnings season in three years is propping up the market, and breadth has improved from much of the last two years. With that in mind, today we add a small-cap stock that’s a household name. It was a Covid-era darling that fell severely out of favor the last few years. Now, it’s showing signs of a comeback. I recently recommended the stock to my Cabot Value Investor audience. Now, we add the stock to our Stock of the Week portfolio.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The volatile and sloppy start to 2025 continued last week as the indexes fell hard on Monday, recovered in the middle part of the week, and then lost ground again on Friday. For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.5%.
The volatile and sloppy start to 2025 continued last week as the indexes fell hard on Monday, recovered in the middle part of the week, and then lost ground again on Friday. For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.5%.
Today’s new addition is an emerging MedTech company that’s developed a whole-organ therapy system to treat liver-dominant cancers.
These are very difficult-to-treat cancers where survival rates are low. But this company’s system, which was just approved for its first indication last summer, is improving the odds.
It’s an exciting story, both from a treatment and investment perspective.
These are very difficult-to-treat cancers where survival rates are low. But this company’s system, which was just approved for its first indication last summer, is improving the odds.
It’s an exciting story, both from a treatment and investment perspective.
The market has been resilient in the face of some bad headline news during the past two weeks, but just about every major index and most stocks and sectors are essentially neutral--the evidence is as mixed as it can be. That’s not a bearish thing, per se, and we’re actually making one small new buy today in a peppy growth stock. But until we see more decisive action among growth titles (possibly as earnings season continues to ramp up), we recommend holding a good amount of cash (45% after our move tonight).
Less than two years removed from the dual implosions of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the U.S. banking industry is thriving again, boosted by a resilient economy, declining inflation, and lower borrowing costs. No sector has reported better earnings growth in the fourth quarter than financials, with banks leading the way. And yet, bank stocks remain cheap. So today, we add a big name in the banking industry to our Growth/Income portfolio – one that’s growing fast, and cheaper than most of its peers. I think it could reach new all-time highs within a matter of months.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The AI theme came under heavy pressure last Monday, which weighed on the markets. However, by week’s end the bulls had bought the dip and impressively the S&P 500 had fallen only marginally, the Dow had eked out a small gain, while the Nasdaq “only” lost 1.5%.
The news today is all about the tariffs, but to this point, most things are simply hacking around in a range, so we’re fine holding resilient titles and ditching those that crack. Our biggest thought beyond the headline news or daily reactions is that, unless you’re hopping in and out of things every couple of days, there’s no real money being made of late, with selling on strength seen and headline news causing big moves up and down most days. To be clear, that’s more descriptive than predictive, but until something changes, we favor keeping new positions on the small side, holding some cash and practicing patience waiting for this ping-pong action to stop. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.
We will say, however, that this week’s list is encouraging—it’s very growth heavy, and even after today’s pothole, many names are in position to get going if the market allows it. Our Top Pick is in the midst of a solid-looking nine-week rest after a huge comeback in the second half of last year.
We will say, however, that this week’s list is encouraging—it’s very growth heavy, and even after today’s pothole, many names are in position to get going if the market allows it. Our Top Pick is in the midst of a solid-looking nine-week rest after a huge comeback in the second half of last year.
Tariffs are here, and the market doesn’t like them. But how long are they here for? As this morning’s deal with Mexico to delay them by a month reveals, it’s possible tariffs are being used as more of a scare tactic than a permanent penalty. If so, that would be good for stocks. But the best thing to do with tariffs as an investor is to ignore them and focus on stocks that are performing well. And today, we do just that, adding a promising biotech that caught the attention of Cabot Top Ten Trader Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The AI theme came under heavy pressure Monday of last week, which weighed on the markets. However, by week’s end the bulls had bought the dip and impressively the S&P 500 had fallen only marginally, the Dow had eked out a small gain, while the Nasdaq “only” lost 1.5%.
The AI theme came under heavy pressure Monday of last week, which weighed on the markets. However, by week’s end the bulls had bought the dip and impressively the S&P 500 had fallen only marginally, the Dow had eked out a small gain, while the Nasdaq “only” lost 1.5%.
Updates
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic, but continue to pick your spots. Most of the evidence is positive, but the action among growth stocks is good but somewhat mixed, with many names acting great but some hitting air pockets and lots hitting resistance near prior highs. In the Model Portfolio, we’re doing a little reshuffling tonight—we’re going to sell one-half of DraftKings (DKNG) and sell one-quarter of Uber (UBER), but we’re also going to start another half-sized stake in On Holding (ONON). We’re also placing Pulte (PHM) on Hold. We’ll still have about 23% in cash after these moves. Details below.
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index has drifted a little lower this week but made a nice move over the last month as interest rates declined. The S&P 600 iShares ETF (IJR) is up 7% over the last five weeks.
The chart inside shows how clear the inverse relationship between the IJR (green line) and the 10-year yield (blue line) is.
The chart inside shows how clear the inverse relationship between the IJR (green line) and the 10-year yield (blue line) is.
“Markets are never wrong, only opinions are.” – Jesse Livermore
Few quotes related to investing have stuck with me more than that one.
Jesse Livermore, of course, is an investment legend who, in the early 20th century, pioneered day trading and who was the basis of the best-selling Edwin Lefevre book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – considered by many to be the investing Bible. Many of his words are relevant to today’s market, nearly 85 years after his death. And I think the above quote is as evergreen as any and is important to remember in bull markets like this one.
Few quotes related to investing have stuck with me more than that one.
Jesse Livermore, of course, is an investment legend who, in the early 20th century, pioneered day trading and who was the basis of the best-selling Edwin Lefevre book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – considered by many to be the investing Bible. Many of his words are relevant to today’s market, nearly 85 years after his death. And I think the above quote is as evergreen as any and is important to remember in bull markets like this one.
The market has regained its footing, and here comes Nvidia (NVDA).
All eyes are on the Nvidia earnings report scheduled to come out after the closing bell on Wednesday. It was an Nvidia earnings report two years ago that featured a massive demand for artificial intelligence products and services that sparked the AI craze and ignited a powerful rally in technology stocks.
All eyes are on the Nvidia earnings report scheduled to come out after the closing bell on Wednesday. It was an Nvidia earnings report two years ago that featured a massive demand for artificial intelligence products and services that sparked the AI craze and ignited a powerful rally in technology stocks.
The market dodged a bullet. And the rally forges on.
After a 5% dip from the high, stocks started climbing again in mid-April and have regained all the losses. Last week’s inflation report had the potential to derail the recent rally. But it didn’t. And the good times are continuing.
After a 5% dip from the high, stocks started climbing again in mid-April and have regained all the losses. Last week’s inflation report had the potential to derail the recent rally. But it didn’t. And the good times are continuing.
In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Kopin Corporation (KOPN), Adient (ADNT), and Bayer (BAYRY).
Our note also includes the monthly Catalyst Report, which we encourage you to look through. This report is a listing of a few companies that have reported a catalyst in the past month. These catalysts include new CEOs, activist activity, spin-offs, cyclical turnarounds and other possible game-changers. We source many of our feature recommendations from this list. You will find it nowhere else on Wall Street.
Our note also includes the monthly Catalyst Report, which we encourage you to look through. This report is a listing of a few companies that have reported a catalyst in the past month. These catalysts include new CEOs, activist activity, spin-offs, cyclical turnarounds and other possible game-changers. We source many of our feature recommendations from this list. You will find it nowhere else on Wall Street.
We’ve been able to enjoy a break in the earnings action this week (finally), and without a lot of company-specific updates, we’ll keep things short and sweet today.
The main message is that the broad market continues to rise on the back of rate cut expectations and a falling 10-year yield (down to 4.35% from over 4.7% a couple weeks ago).
The main message is that the broad market continues to rise on the back of rate cut expectations and a falling 10-year yield (down to 4.35% from over 4.7% a couple weeks ago).
Major indexes are at all-time highs as data indicated inflation retreated a bit. And many of our positions are soaring.
That includes new addition Neo Performance (NOPMF), whose shares were up 17% during the stock’s first week as an Explorer recommendation as the company reported a swing to profitability. It wasn’t our only holding to post double-digit performance last week.
Details inside.
That includes new addition Neo Performance (NOPMF), whose shares were up 17% during the stock’s first week as an Explorer recommendation as the company reported a swing to profitability. It wasn’t our only holding to post double-digit performance last week.
Details inside.
The market is at all-time highs, the Chiefs beat the 49ers in the most recent Super Bowl, and so-called meme stocks are headed to the moon. Is it January 2021 all over again? Sure feels like it.
Yes, GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and the like are back, with those and a few others nearly tripling this week. The last time that happened, things didn’t end so well for the meme stocks. Or the market. Should it be a similar red flag for the bull market this time around?
Yes, GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and the like are back, with those and a few others nearly tripling this week. The last time that happened, things didn’t end so well for the meme stocks. Or the market. Should it be a similar red flag for the bull market this time around?
It’s been a good month in the market, so far. The S&P 500 has regained all the dip from April and is now within a whisker of the all-time high. The driving forces have been an improving interest rate story and solid earnings.
With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings increased an average of 5.4% over last year’s quarter. But it’s better than that. If you take out the report of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), average earnings growth would be 8.3% for all the other stocks on the index. That’s a strong gain.
With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings increased an average of 5.4% over last year’s quarter. But it’s better than that. If you take out the report of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), average earnings growth would be 8.3% for all the other stocks on the index. That’s a strong gain.
The market has regained its footing. After a 5% pullback in the earlier part of April, the S&P 500 has since regained nearly all that was lost, and the index is within bad breath distance of the high.
Earnings have been good. With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings increased an average of 5.4% over last year’s quarter. But it’s better than that. If you take out the report of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), average earnings growth would be 8.3% for all the other stocks on the index. That’s a healthy gain.
Earnings have been good. With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings increased an average of 5.4% over last year’s quarter. But it’s better than that. If you take out the report of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), average earnings growth would be 8.3% for all the other stocks on the index. That’s a healthy gain.
Viatris (VTRS) reported 1Q 2024 results yesterday, narrowly missing on revenue but coming in line with earnings expectations at 67 cents per share. Sales of older drugs Lipitor and Norvasc declined, with the branded drugs unit’s revenue dropping 4.5% to $2.31 billion. The company has completed its women’s healthcare business divestiture and expects its API unit sale to close soon. Despite the challenges, Viatris reaffirmed its financial guidance for the year, projecting total revenue between $15.5 billion and $16.0 billion, with adjusted EBITDA estimated at $5.0 billion to $5.4 billion. The company remains focused on debt reduction, having paid down $546 million during the quarter.
Alerts
We have four remaining positions that are due to expire at the November 17, 2023 expiration cycle. So, let’s go ahead and buy our short calls back and immediately sell some more premium.
We currently own the JPM January 17, 2025, 100 call LEAPS contract at $46.20. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.
As a result, our Small Dogs of the Dow portfolio continues to push higher, up over 22% on the year. More specifically, our INTC position is up more than 110% since we initiated it back at the beginning of 2023. The underlying stock position is only up 40%, again showing the power of using a poor man’s covered call strategy on individual stocks and ETFs.
Verizon is currently trading for 35.90.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Do a little more buying. Today’s action is very broad and bullish, with our Cabot Tides flipping to positive and with more stocks acting well and hitting new highs. Short term, it’s possible (even likely) we see some retrenchment after a straight-up move in some stocks, we’re going to beef up a couple of our positions today and look to put more cash to work soon (possibly in the next couple of days)—we’ll fill out our stake in Nutanix (NTNX) and add a 3% position back to Uber (UBER), which looks very powerful. Our cash position will now be around 57%. Details below.
VTI is currently trading for 222.60.
In the All-Weather portfolio, we currently own the VTI January 17, 2025, 165 call LEAPS contract at $55.05. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.
In the All-Weather portfolio, we currently own the VTI January 17, 2025, 165 call LEAPS contract at $55.05. You must own LEAPS in order to use this strategy.
SPY is currently trading for 448.02.
Our stop loss has been hit, so we need to stay disciplined and exit the trade. We’ve seen back-to-back losses for the first time since early February of this year and, believe me, more losses will come. But, as we all know, by staying disciplined and continuing to stick with our high-probability approach we will be successful over the long haul and that’s what truly matters. Remember, we need to allow the law of large numbers to work in our favor, and taking stop losses, when the time calls, keeps us moving in the right direction.
I will be exiting our Home Depot (HD) trade today. I will discuss the trade in greater detail in our upcoming weekly issue.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.