Issues
In tonight’s issue we write about one stock that’s at the top of our Watch List, as well as the value of letting a stock make decisions for you. We also give you our latest thoughts on the market, our stocks and some new ideas.
We start this month with our Spotlight Stock, a company that operates in the Oil Services area. Beaten down by low oil prices, this company is pulling out all the stops to cut costs and expand into new geographical arenas—efforts that are attracting some very interesting institutional interest in its stock. My Feature article further explores the strategies that the company and its new management team are applying to manage—and expand—the company’s footprint.
Today’s stock is a name you’ll know. The company was born in the early days of the internet and today it’s all grown up—a major player in the world of financial transactions.
Current Market OutlookFollowing last week’s selling storm, today’s big rebound was encouraging; three of the five major indexes we track (S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE Composite) bounced back above their 50-day lines today, and many leading stocks did the same. Ideally, last week’s decline, which was spurred on by obvious news (North Korea), was a sharp shakeout that cleared the decks and set the stage for a new upmove. But we’ll need to see more evidence before going there. As we stand now, the intermediate-term trend is sideways-to-down, and many stocks have either cracked or are testing support. There’s no need for wholesale selling, but we are knocking our Market Monitor down a notch; you should keep new positions on the small side and honor your stops until we see further evidence that the bulls are back in control.
This week’s list does have a bunch of good growth stories, which is encouraging after the recent selling. We’re going with Vantiv (VNTV) as our Top Pick—it’s not the most volatile stock, but it just blasted out of a long period of lackluster action following a game-changing acquisition.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Autohome (ATHM) | 98.65 | ||
| CBOE Holdings (CBOE) | 0.00 | ||
| Chegg (CHGG) | 74.21 | ||
| Exelixis (EXEL) | 27.35 | ||
| Planet Fitness (PLNT) | 0.00 | ||
| Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) | 129.66 | ||
| Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) | 123.32 | ||
| Teledyne (TDY) | 0.00 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| Vantiv (VNTV) | 0.00 |
Markets sold off slightly on Wednesday, but really got into it on Thursday, with the iShares MSCI ETF falling a full 2%. Despite the blood-letting, the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer is still flashing a green light, indicating that the medium-term trend of the market is still up.
This month I start covering a bank for the first time in many years. The balance sheets of many U.S. banks have strengthened significantly during the past few years, and present low risk buying opportunities. Citizens Financial, based in Rhode Island, stands out from the crowd and is a solid pick for steady performance during the year ahead.
Stocks have continued to zoom higher, and our contributors have found a very nice variety of investments for your consideration this month, beginning with our Spotlight Stock—a company that has been in existence since 1879.
The market remains strong and cohesive and thus I remain bullish. However, numerous indications remind me that the market is overdue to deliver a painful shock to investors, so today I’m leaning back to the conservative side, recommending a dividend-paying stock that has solid long-term prospects and minimal downside risk.
Current Market OutlookToday was a welcome day for leading growth stocks, with many bouncing nicely after nearly two weeks of sliding steadily (despite the Dow’s advance during that time). Overall, the situation remains mostly bullish, but tricky—the major indexes are in uptrends and many stocks are in good shape, but we’ve also seen quite a few breakdowns among Top Ten stocks during the past couple of weeks, while many stocks moving to new highs have quickly found selling pressure. All told, we’ll leave our Market Monitor in bullish territory because the majority of evidence remains on the positive side of the ledger, but we’ll be watching to see if today’s strength in leading stocks continues or the choppy conditions return.
This week’s Top Ten has a bunch of impressive charts (including some multi-year breakouts) from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is GrubHub (GRUB), whose story has improved and whose stock has exploded out of a two and a half year consolidation. Try to buy on weakness.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron’s (AAN) | 74.35 | ||
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) | 0.00 | ||
| Arista Networks (ANET) | 0.00 | ||
| Baidu (BIDU) | 0.00 | ||
| Baozun (BZUN) | 44.24 | ||
| GrubHub (GRUB) | 140.03 | ||
| Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. (LL) | 0.00 | ||
| Rockwell Collins (COL) | 0.00 | ||
| Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) | 92.54 | ||
| WTW (WTW) | 100.47 |
Today’s recommendation is a small company, and there are no analysts following the stock. But it has big clients for which its products are absolutely critical. The stock has been on a wild ride this week. I have a hunch I know why, and we’re going to step in and to try and grab shares at a discount, starting with half a position.
Updates
While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.
Alerts
I’m putting J.M. Smucker (SJM) on Hold today while we wait to see if the stock can find support, but I don’t think the earnings report merits selling.
Shares of Chembio (CEMI) have been on the ropes for a few weeks, and over the last two days, they have deteriorated even more. Sell.
Today, we’re going to add a stock we think can be a liquid leader of the new market uptrend: Alibaba (BABA), China’s e-commerce giant.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.