Given the still-iffy broad market, we\'re not advising you to dive in with both feet, but we are adding one new stock to the Model Portfolio tonight and will look to put more cash to work should the bulls continue to make headway.

Current Market Outlook


Last week was another constructive week, as the major indexes and leading stocks gave back just a smidgen of their prior two weeks of gains. Plus, of course, today’s action offered more encouragement, with the big-cap indexes spiking back toward all-time highs and many individual stocks notching good gains. We can’t conclude we’re completely out of the woods, especially as volume remains light (today’s volume on the Nasdaq was below average) and the broad market is still so-so (small- and mid-cap indexes are still in the middle of multi-month ranges). Still, the evidence has grown steadily more bullish recently, so we’re following along—we’re bumping our Market Monitor up to level 7 (out of 10), and continued strength would have us getting aggressively invested.

This week’s list is a mixed bag, with some special situations, many different sectors and a few recent breakouts. Our Top Pick is ST Microelectronics (STM), a fast-growing chip maker with a good story and chart. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)	93.53	81-85	74-76
ASML Holding (ASML)	350.01	158-162	147-150
Guidewire (GWRE)	90.60	76-79	71-73
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	131-134	121-124
Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. (LL)	0.00	36-38.5	32.5-31.5
Owens Corning (OC)	0.00	71-74	67-68.5
Pure Storage (PSTG)	25.64	13.5-14.5	12.4-12.9
Barrick Gold (GOLD)	27.20	101-105	93-95
STMicroelectronics (STM)	30.09	17.5-19	16.3-16.8
Summit Materials (SUM)	0.00	29-30.5	27-28

A few of our stocks have been taking a breather, but the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer remains resolutely positive. Investors have remained optimistic despite a truckload of negative news and the fundamentals are solid for the stocks in the portfolio. I also have an overlooked Indian stock to recommend that ties in with the recent improvement in commodity prices.

I add another Canadian company to the Model this month. Canadian stocks are more undervalued than U.S. stocks, and the Canadian economy is now improving noticeably for the first time in a long while.

Today’s featured stocks include four companies that should benefit from the post-Hurricane Harvey rebuilding process.

With August in the rear-view window, it’s time for Wall Street to get back to full-time work. At present, trends continue to look good (but not great). Still, there are plenty of candidates to choose from, and this week’s comes from an emerging market that is not China; I think you’ll like it.

Current Market Outlook


After lots of sloppy and weak action in June, July and the first half of August, the past two weeks have certainly been an improvement—the major indexes have popped higher, often in the face of bad news and uncertainties, and many of the resilient growth stocks did the same. We can’t conclude the market is out of the woods, as the broad market is still iffy, the intermediate-term trend is mostly sideways and relatively few stocks have actually broken out on good volume. Still, this is probably the best action by growth stocks (which have led the way higher this year) since June, so we’re not complaining. We’re moving our Market Monitor up one notch to a level 6 (out of 10); you can put a little more money to work, though we need more upside confirmation before getting bullish.

This week’s list contains a mix of familiar and newer names, all of which are showing great strength. For our Top Pick, we’re going with Match Group (MTCH), which has exploded to new highs; it’s a bit thin, but we like the overall growth story and the recent power. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
BeiGene (BGNE)	170.20	71-75	64-66
Catalent Inc (CTLT)	0.00	41-39	37-36
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	125.51	80-83	74-76
Match (MTCH)	0.00	21-22.5	19.5-20.5
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	105-110	94-96
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	25-27	23-24
TowerJazz (TSEM)	0.00	28-30	25.5-26.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	123-129	113-116
Werner Enterprises (WERN)	0.00	31.5-33	29.5-30.5
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)	121.08	137-143	129-132

Today’s candidate provides at-home health care solutions to people with vascular disease. These are often chronic conditions, which account for up to 80% of every healthcare dollar spent in the U.S. The company is growing quickly, with average annual growth since 2013 is over 30%!

While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.

The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.

The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.

The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.

It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.

With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.

And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.

Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.

For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.

After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.

Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.

Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.

The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.

The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.

The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.

It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.

Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.

The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.

That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.

After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.

Despite the continuing Buy signal from the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer, one of our stocks, Telkom Indonesia (TLK), is not pulling its weight and is now rated Sell.

USA Technologies (USAT) reported a mixed bag of quarterly results this morning. I think buying here has a relatively high probability of working out within a 30-day window.

We will place ProShares S&P 500 Ultra Fund (SSO) on Hold to respect the message from our Tides.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.