Issues
As you’ll see in our Market Views, our contributors remain bullish, as do the Advisor and Investor Surveys we follow. And our contributors continue to find investing ideas with which to stuff your stocking—in just about every sector.
The market weakness that I mentioned last week has vanished, and with it my cautious stance. Thus, this week’s stock is what we call a zinger—a stock that has been hot, and will likely remain hot for a substantially longer period of time as investors learn about its great growth story.
Current Market OutlookGrowth stocks have stabilized and the market has quieted down following the sharp Nasdaq-led selloff, allowing some stocks to bounce back nicely and other new leaders to flex their muscle. Short-term, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some follow-on selling in some of the damaged areas (we still think chip stocks, for instance, look iffy), and some year-end uncertainties (tax reform, government shutdown) could always cause some wobbles. But you know us—we go with the evidence in front of us, and with the major trends of the major indexes and most leading stocks pointed up, we remain mostly bullish. As always, you want to sell stocks that are breaking down and focus new buying on fresher leadership stocks that have shown excellent volume clues.
There are many such examples in this week’s list, which has a wide variety of good-looking charts and stories to choose from. Our Top Pick is Etsy (ETSY), a niche online retailer that’s just turning profitable and has powerfully broken out during the past week.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Financial (ALLY) | 30.44 | ||
| Boise Cascade (BCC) | 0.00 | ||
| Charles Schwab (SCHW) | 0.00 | ||
| D. R. Horton (DHI) | 66.55 | ||
| Etsy (ETSY) | 112.97 | ||
| First Solar (FSLR) | 83.74 | ||
| G-III Apparel (GIII) | 45.25 | ||
| Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) | 0.00 | ||
| NetApp (NTAP) | 0.00 | ||
| Roku, Inc. (ROKU) | 150.46 |
We’ve pared back during the past few days in the Model Portfolio, but we\'re not sticking our heads in the sand and are giving our profitable stocks room to consolidate. In tonight’s issue, we dive into our game plan for our remaining stocks, and we also do some sector analysis, including two areas that are launching new leaders.
Today’s featured stocks include two new additions to the portfolios and a stock that seems ready for a huge price rebound.
Today’s recommended stock is an old-world company in a prosaic business, and its prospects are bright as it reaps improved efficiencies from its recent big merger.
Current Market OutlookThe past week saw yet another round of rotation, but this one was the sharpest and most violent we’ve seen all year, with many leading growth stocks getting crunched while other areas of the market (especially those benefiting from likely lower corporate taxes) surged. Our advice, as usual, is to follow the plan—some growth stocks look very toppy after long, uninterrupted runs, and for those, selling (or partial selling) makes sense. But other growth stocks are pulling back normally, and some new leadership is emerging. It makes sense to pull in your horns a bit, possibly holding some cash until the market settles down; we’ve nudged our Market Monitor down to reflect that. Right now, we advise taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, holding your resilient/advancing issues, while honoring your stops and selling names that break down.
This week’s list is heavier on cyclical, building and retail stocks, all of which have caught huge updrafts during the past few days. Our Top Pick is Warrior Met Coal (HCC), a big turnaround play in the coal sector. Buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Roofing (BECN) | 0.00 | ||
| CH Robinson (CHRW) | 0.00 | ||
| E*Trade Financial (ETFC) | 0.00 | ||
| Gardner Denver (GDI) | 0.00 | ||
| GrubHub (GRUB) | 140.03 | ||
| Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS) | 73.22 | ||
| Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) | 43.32 | ||
| Tyson Foods (TSN) | 0.00 | ||
| USG Corp. (USG) | 0.00 | ||
| Warrior Met Coal (HCC) | 0.00 |
There are only a few companies out there that provide the software that companies can use to implement IT cost-accounting. Today’s Cabot Small-Cap Confidential candidate is pioneering the entire movement.
Updates
What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
Alerts
I’m moving two growth stocks from Hold to Buy today, Boise Cascade (BCC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), and provide an update on General Motors (GM)—which is no longer in the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor portfolios—and recommendations on the best stocks to buy today.
Before the opening bell today, one of our stocks issued preliminary Q4 2016 results that came in below expectations.
Applied Materials (AMAT) moves from the Growth & Income Portfolio to the Growth Portfolio, and I suggest three semiconductor stocks for your consideration.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.