Issues
Here is your summer issue of Cabot’s 10 Best Marijuana Stocks, with updates on the industry as a whole as well as all the important fundamental developments regarding the stocks in the portfolio.
In general, I remain very bullish on the marijuana sector long-term. I’m impressed by both the creativity demonstrated by the management of these companies, and the appetite for investment in the sector, by both individual investors and private equity. The future is bright.
In general, I remain very bullish on the marijuana sector long-term. I’m impressed by both the creativity demonstrated by the management of these companies, and the appetite for investment in the sector, by both individual investors and private equity. The future is bright.
The market has done a good job of holding its strong early-May upmove, and that’s kept both of our trend-following market timing indicators in positive territory. That said, what we really want to see going forward is upside follow through from the major indexes and leading growth stocks, which would go a long way toward telling us the three-month correction is over.
Surprisingly good earnings reports boosted many stocks in our portfolios in recent weeks, and the same factor has turned the trends of the major indexes favorable; it’s good to be invested.
But we must never grow complacent, and one way I reduce risk in the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio is by diversifying by both industry group and investment style.
This week’s recommendation, for example, is a growth stock; it was originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader. But it’s in an industry that’s generally regarded as conservative, and where stocks are usually appraised on a value basis. I think you’ll enjoy it.
But we must never grow complacent, and one way I reduce risk in the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio is by diversifying by both industry group and investment style.
This week’s recommendation, for example, is a growth stock; it was originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader. But it’s in an industry that’s generally regarded as conservative, and where stocks are usually appraised on a value basis. I think you’ll enjoy it.
Current Market OutlookThe market had a relatively quiet week, with the major indexes slipping a fraction of a percent on light volume and most leading stocks marking time after solid advances the prior two weeks. So far, this action is totally acceptable, but the key will be what happens from here—a couple of large, high-volume selloffs would put a serious dent in the rally, but upside follow through in the indexes and many leading growth stocks would go a long way toward confirming that the January-May market correction is over. For now, we advise sticking with a “lean bullish” mentality; we’re OK doing some buying, but also picking your spots and holding some cash as we look for follow through. Our Market Monitor remains unchanged.
This week’s list has a ton of strong stocks in a variety of growth-oriented sectors. Our Top Pick is LPL Financial (LPLA), a mid-sized Bull Market stock that is acting very well and recently crushed earnings expectations.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 51job, Inc. (JOBS) | 0.00 | ||
| Baozun (BZUN) | 44.24 | ||
| Carvana (CVNA) | 82.90 | ||
| Illumina Inc. (ILMN) | 289.74 | ||
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) | 267.14 | ||
| LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) | 85.22 | ||
| Penn National Gaming (PENN) | 45.38 | ||
| SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG) | 124.37 | ||
| Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) | 52.50 | ||
| WildHorse Resource (WRD) | 0.00 |
While we have yet to get a buy signal from the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer, our stocks are generally performing very well and we have only a couple of quarterly reports yet to come. In today’s issue, I talk about the trouble with too much news and write up a Chinese financial company that has a powerful head of steam up, with only a Q1 report to worry about.
At last, market volatility has lessened and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is steady, resting at about the same level as it was at last month’s issue.
Economic stats also remain status quo, with a slight improvement in job openings, a small dip in retail sales, and a Consumer Sentiment Index that continues increasing.
That has given rise to a return to a more bullish environment for advisors, as you will see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer and our Market Views this month.
Economic stats also remain status quo, with a slight improvement in job openings, a small dip in retail sales, and a Consumer Sentiment Index that continues increasing.
That has given rise to a return to a more bullish environment for advisors, as you will see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer and our Market Views this month.
The past week was one of the most fun in a while! But you can’t rest on your laurels in this business; just when you start to congratulate yourself is when the market comes around to slap you down. Today I’m dialing back the risk a bit with a conservative growth stock that you almost certainly know, and which is at a decent buying point.
Current Market OutlookAfter establishing three bottoms in three months—with each bottom higher than the last—the broad market blasted higher last week, pushing our Market Monitor back into the green zone. But we’re not recommending indexes, we’re recommending stocks, and these stocks are not bouncing off bottoms, they’re breaking out to new highs! Furthermore, a lot of these market leaders are new names that are not familiar to investors—which means there is far more potential buying power than selling power in the stocks.
There are many great growth stories in the bunch, with many possibilities of huge long-term gains in revolutionary businesses, and our Top Pick is one of them; it’s Coupa Software (COUP), a small but fast-growing company whose spending-management software addresses a huge potential market.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AAXN (AAXN) | 87.11 | ||
| Coupa Software (COUP) | 262.20 | ||
| Green Dot (GDOT) | 85.11 | ||
| Guess (GES) | 0.00 | ||
| Petrobras (PBR) | 14.78 | ||
| Pure Storage (PSTG) | 25.64 | ||
| Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC) | 127.95 | ||
| Tenet Healthcare (THC) | 0.00 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| Twilio (TWLO) | 183.39 |
Updates
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.
Markets are facing more inflation as the Iran mess gets messier. Concerns over high AI capital spending are a cloud over a resilient market. On the bright side for our portfolio, however, International Business Machines (IBM) shares were up 7.4% this week following last week’s 8.9% gain. Sea Limited (SE) shares leapt 9.6% this week and are up about 20% over the past month. MercadoLibre (MELI) shares are up 11.6% over the last two weeks.
Alerts
I’m closely watching our newest position, which recently reported results and is now trading right around the 9.5 to 10 level. The current trading range should represent a nice entry point to add to existing positions, but we’ll need a little support from the broad market to prevent a drop into the low 9s.
Guggenheim just raised the rating of this retailer’s shares to ‘Buy’. In the past 30 days, 19 analysts have increased their earnings forecasts for the company for 2017 and 14 for 2018.
We are downgrading this stock from the Buy and Long-Term Buy lists after the company posted a disappointing December quarter and gave mixed guidance for 2017.
The market suffered its worst day in months today, with the Dow down 238 points and the Nasdaq finished down 108 points.
This semiconductor company is forecast to grow at a 66.7% rate in 2017 and 80% next year.
The shares of this electronics company just crossed its 50-day moving average—a bullish indicator.
Adobe Systems (ADBE) reported first-quarter 2017 earnings yesterday (November year-end), after the market closed. The company outperformed analysts’ estimates by a good margin, and also increased second-quarter expectations.
This Fidelity Select Fund is a diversified way to participate in the recovery of the natural gas industry through strong companies.
This spin-off from Alcoa is expected to grow at a 35.5% rate next year.
One new stock joins the Growth & Income Portfolio, plus updates on three other stocks.
On March 20, this financial firm will become part of the S&P 500 index. The added visibility should help propel the company to the double-digit growth that Wall Street is expecting.
This semiconductor company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.02 last quarter, and is forecast to grow at a triple-digit rate this year and next.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.