After six consecutive weeks down, the market has generally given up all its gains for the year; taking profits when they were there was definitely wise. But this week the market is up—so far—and I’m watching carefully to see which of our stocks bounce like tennis balls—and which bounce like eggs. The best tennis balls can still be your road to profits.

Overall, though, the climate is definitely unsupportive, and thus a defensive stance, including plenty of cash, is warranted.

Current Market Outlook


Stocks had another punishing week, with all the major indexes off at least 3% and many individual stocks doing much worse than that. Yes, the market remains stretched to the downside, with numerous oversold-type readings and some measures of sentiment that are showing greater caution. But at this point, any bounces have lasted just hours, and the intermediate-term trend remains firmly down (the major indexes are also below all longer-term moving averages), so we advise waiting patiently for the bulls to offer support; our Market Monitor drops to a level 3 in today’s issue. The ray of light is that, as earnings season has progressed, we’re beginning to see some solid reactions, often from names that didn’t do much in the last uptrend. These are names to keep an eye on for potential leadership down the road.

This week’s Top Ten has the first batch of earnings winners and other resilient stocks showing some big-volume accumulation. Our Top Pick is Tractor Supply (TSCO), a steady company that’s found excellent earnings-induced support, even hitting a new high today. If you want in, aim to nibble on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)	47.84	20-21.5	18.3-19.2
Burlington Stores (BURL)	193.95	164-168	151-153
Cadence Design (CDNS)	42.95	43-45	40-41
Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC)	89.83	71-73	67.5-69.5
Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)	92.00	79-81	74-75
MongoDB (MDB)	156.56	72-75	64-67
PayPal (PYPL)	147.00	79-82	74-75
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	325-340	290-298
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)	122.24	90-93	82-84
Xilinx (XLNX)	134.50	76-79	70-72

Hopefully, you took some profits last week as I advised. It’s been a rough week since then, but it wasn’t unexpected. The well-publicized legalization day in Canada was exactly the type of event that often accompanies market tops.

Of course, it’s not just the marijuana stocks that have been sinking; the broad stock market is trending down as well.

But have no fear! The key to successful investing in this sector is to hold cash when the environment is against you, and to invest in great growth companies when trends are positive, and to take partial profits—as we did last week—when stocks get frothy.

The market’s downturn continues, with the trends of the major indexes and most growth stocks clearly down. Our longer-term Cabot Trend Lines even turned negative last Friday, reinforcing the view that the sellers are in control.

The market decline of the past month has turned Cabot’s long-term trend-following indicator negative (after 30 months on the positive side), so it’s time to recognize that the tide is now going out. Defense is now a major part of the game.

Current Market Outlook


The day-to-day (and sometimes hour-by-hour) action remains very volatile, with headlines (both company-specific and economic) coming at investors quickly. But taking a step back, not much has changed—the intermediate-term trend is pointed down and the vast majority of leading stocks are in the same boat, with a good amount of damage on their charts that will likely take time to repair. That doesn’t mean you should stick your head in the sand; odds favor earnings season allowing some names to grab pole position for the next market uptrend. But right now, it’s best to remain defensive as we wait for the market to find some strong support and more stocks to build launching pads. Our Market Monitor remains at a level 4 today.

This week’s list includes a broad mix of stocks and sectors, including one very new IPO and a couple of special situations. Our Top Pick, though, is Ciena (CIEN), the mid-sized networking outfit that looks ready for a sustained upturn once the pressure comes off the market.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ciena (CIEN)	44.25	29.5-31	27-28
Dine Brands (DIN)	93.05	80-83	74-76
Eli Lilly (LLY)	117.78	107-110	100-102
GasLog (GLOG)	21.39	20-20.7	18-18.5
Guardant Health (GH)	88.34	35-38	29-31
Intelsat (I)	25.46	32.5-35	28-29
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI)	103.94	87-90	81-82.5
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)	57.03	49-51	43-45
Tabula Rasa Healthcare (TRHC)	76.14	75-78	67-70
United Continental Holdings (UAL)	96.76	86-89	79-81

The emerging market sector remains in a downtrend as we patiently await the buyers to arrive. When they do, we fully expect a profitable, sustained uptrend given the persistent decline this year, but until that happens, it’s best to stay mostly on the sideline.

There is one area in the EM world that’s doing well, though, and in tonight’s issue, our new recommendation is a mega-cap stock from that country. It’s a familiar name, is part of a resilient sector and has huge turnaround potential.

Wow! The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a bumpy month the first couple of weeks in October, but made up for those doldrums yesterday, gaining 547 points—all in one day! The catalyst? Some important and very positive earnings news from Morgan Stanley, who pointed to the resurgence of its IPO business; Goldman Sachs, who also enjoyed increases in its underwriting area; and Johnson & Johnson, who cited some nice sales improvements.

Overall, it just seems like folks were ready for some good news. Sentiment remains bullish, as you’ll see from our Advisor Sentiment Barometer, which barely moved this month. However, some caution is being advised—at least in the short term—as reflected in our Market Views section of the newsletter.

What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.

The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.

Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.

Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”

The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.

Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.

Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.

You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.

It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.

That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.

What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.

Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30^th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.

The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”

Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation

Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.

Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.

Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.

The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.

In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.

The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.

The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.

I’ve seen some unsettling action in a few of our stocks, I think we need to make a few small adjustments.

One of our stocks reported results this morning that beat on revenue and slightly missed on EPS.

This building products company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.12 last quarter, and 21 analysts have increased their forecasts in the past 30 days.

We’ve had a small pullback in the U.S. stock market averages. It’s a little too early to tell if they might fall further, which could easily happen if the recent increase in hostility that’s coming from North Korea continues to escalate.

The market suffered a major selloff yesterday; the Dow declined nearly 1%, the S&P 500 lost 1.5%, and the Nasdaq closed over 2% lower. I’m not entirely surprised, there have been red flags popping up under the surface of the market for weeks, as discussed in our regular updates.

This emerging market stock took off yesterday, after a great earnings beat.

While the Dow Industrials put on a good show in recent weeks and grabbed the headlines, many growth stocks struggled, as did the Nasdaq and small- and mid-cap indexes.

This restaurant company is seeing double-digit revenue and earnings increases, and is growing rapidly via acquisition.

Here are earnings updates on two of our stocks.

This aero-structure company’s EPS forecasts were increased by 13 analysts in the past 30 days.

Here are earnings updates on three of our stocks, and there’s drama at another.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.