While it may seem that all the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average may move together, there are always those laggards that can’t catch up. This creates opportunity for the turnaround investor.

In this issue, we provide our thoughts on the laggards, highlighting those with promising appeal as well as some that might best be left alone for now.

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes have scored a couple of solid gains, though we’re seeing plenty of crosscurrents underneath the surface; this could be the start of a rotation out of growth, but it may just be normal action that’s often seen around quarter-end (as hedge funds, most of which get paid quarterly, book profits and reposition themselves). Just looking at the evidence, the push higher has kept the intermediate-term trend pointed up, and while some leaders have hit potholes, most remain in uptrends and have avoided abnormal action. Overall, then, we remain mostly bullish, though we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7 for a bit longer to see if this recent push (a) continues and (b) is led by leading, Top Ten-style stocks.

This week’s list has many familiar names from earlier this year—a good sign, in our view, that leading stocks are continuing their uptrends. Our Top Pick is Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), a unique drug firm with a powerful chart. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Armstrong World (AWI)	88.01	77-79	70.5-72
Array Biopharma (ARRY)	46.35	23-24.5	20.5-21.5
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	56-59	48-50
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)	73.34	77-80	69-71.5
Paylocity (PCTY)	97.34	87-90	79-81
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	240-248	220-223
Survey Monkey (SVMK)	19.97	17-18	15.3-16
TAL Education (TAL)	50.49	34-36.5	31.5-32.5
TransDigm (TDG)	599.41	443-458	415-425
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	150-155	134-137

Two weeks ago, we pointed out some developing divergences in the broad market, and in the short-term, those have caught up to the big-cap indexes and growth stocks, which have generally fallen off in recent days, including a couple of breakdowns. In the near-term, the outlook is still murky, so we advise stepping carefully, though big picture, we remain bullish and, hence, heavily invested.
In the Model Portfolio, we’ve placed some stocks on hold and, this week, sold one stock as it broke down on huge volume. We’re holding 18% cash now, though should the market and growth stocks firm up, we’ll be looking to put that to work in stronger leaders.
In tonight’s issue, we dive in deeper into all our thoughts on the market and our stocks, as well as look at prior environments after blastoff signals to see what’s normal and what’s not (hint: so far, we’re still in good shape).

CBD is hot, and acquisitions in the cannabis industry seem to occur daily, but the biggest marijuana stocks are cooling, at least for a while.

Long-term, however, I remain very bullish on both the companies and the stocks in the industry and am truly enjoying staying on top of the developments.

The gains so far this year, in both the sector and the portfolio, remain spectacular, but they won’t continue; I guarantee that corrections and volatility will come. And I also guarantee I’ll give you my best ideas on how to deal with them.

In this issue I highlight a company that has been investing in infrastructure assets all over the world. The stock has doubled the return of the S&P 500. And business will only get better.

The market has softened over the past week, and we’ve seen some high-volume selling in former leading stocks, so I’m now pulling back a bit on risk, which is one reason today’s recommendation is a low-risk utility stock.
Technically part of the Safe Income portfolio of Cabot Dividend Investor, this stock pays a healthy 2.6% yield and it has decent upside potential as well.
As for the current portfolio, we still have some stocks hitting new highs, but we’ve also got some showing renewed weakness, so today I have two sell recommendations. Details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


The lagging action of the broad market finally caught up with the major indexes last Friday, with everything taking a big hit and, more important, small- and mid-cap indexes falling below their 50-day lines. Right now, most of the evidence remains positive, so we remain mostly bullish. But it’s fair to say our antennae are up and the next few days will be important—the intermediate-term trend is basically on the fence (another bad day could turn it down) and many leading stocks have been running for many weeks and are extended to the upside. Bottom line, we’re sticking with our current stance, but be sure to honor your stops and loss limits, take partial profits where available and, on the buy side, be discerning and aim to buy on weakness.
The good news is we’re seeing a decent amount of strong stocks that hit new highs recently and are pulling back normally. This week’s list is full of them, and our Top Pick is iRobot (IRBT), a stock with a solid growth story and a good-looking setup on the chart.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Forescout (FSCT)	41.92	41.5-43	37-38
Huazhu Group (HTHT)	30.89	38-40	34-35.5
Invitae (NVTA)	32.06	22.5-24.5	19-20
iRobot (IRBT)	103.17	118-122	107-110
ProPetro (PUMP)	23.30	20.5-21.5	18.2-18.9
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	194-200	178-182
Sleep Number (SNBR)	35.80	45-47	41-42.5
StoneCo (STNE)	27.54	37-39.5	31.5-33
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)	34.43	23.5-24.5	21.5-22
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	116-120	107-110

We’ve seen a bit of turbulence in international emerging markets with speculation about trade talks and the perceived slower growth in China and Europe.

Apparently, institutional investors are underweighting Europe so we go against the grain for our new recommendation. This is a great brand that offers a nice combination of high quality, value price of entry, strong growth in emerging markets and a 7.8% dividend yield.

With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.

And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.

Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.

For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.

After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.

Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.

Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.

The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.

The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.

The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.

It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.

Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.

The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.

That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.

After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.

Markets are facing more inflation as the Iran mess gets messier. Concerns over high AI capital spending are a cloud over a resilient market. On the bright side for our portfolio, however, International Business Machines (IBM) shares were up 7.4% this week following last week’s 8.9% gain. Sea Limited (SE) shares leapt 9.6% this week and are up about 20% over the past month. MercadoLibre (MELI) shares are up 11.6% over the last two weeks.

I remain bullish on stocks, but I am turning more cautious, winding down leverage, and letting some cash build up in my non-marginable accounts.

The reason is that spooky season lies just around the corner. September and October are typically the weakest months of the year. We also often see weakness in July and August, perhaps as investors get nervous about those looming difficult months.

After a very strong run since the March lows, the market appears to be going through a healthy, albeit somewhat uncomfortable, rotation.

The biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade are finally seeing some profit-taking, with Goldman Sachs (GS) noting that momentum stocks recently suffered their worst two-day decline since 2020. UBS (UBS) just said that the momentum factor is down roughly 20% from its June peak, marking the seventh-largest drawdown of the last decade and the fastest decline of that magnitude on record.

Five analysts have raised their EPS estimates for this inbound marketing company in the past 30 days. And Zacks has rated it a ‘Strong Buy’, based on EPS growth, in the near- and long-term.

This supplier to the construction industry beat Wall Street’s earnings forecasts by $0.06 per share last quarter. Analysts are expecting 40%+ growth from the company this year.

One of our stocks reported third-quarter results that met Wall Street’s estimates, two stocks move from Buy to Hold, and there’s new price action on another.

This mega-bank beat analysts’ earnings projections by $0.03 last quarter, leading Wall Street to beat its drums. In the past 30 days, 21 analysts have increased their 2017 forecasts for the company and 13 have boosted their earnings outlook for 2018.

Two of our stocks reported third-quarter earnings beats; another reported third-quarter earnings in line with estimates.

This once out-of-favor designer brand is now being touted by Wall Street. The shares have received lots of analyst attention lately including: upgraded by Canaccord Genuity to ‘Buy’, initiated at Barclays to ‘Equal-Weight’, and upgraded by Oppenheimer to ‘Outperform’.

New FDA approvals are giving this stock some momentum.

Two financial stocks reported earnings beats; sell one and buy the other.

This entertainment company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.12 last quarter, and Wall Street is forecasting growth north of 70% annually over the next five years for the company.

This supermarket company’s shares recently crossed over their 50-day moving average, a bullish sign. The company will announce third quarter earnings on November 15.

One of our stocks beat earnings estimates, another’s rating changes to Buy, plus updates on eight other stocks.

The shares of this recent IPO were just initiated at both Oppenheimer and William Blair with an ‘Outperform’ rating.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.