As the year winds to a close, we find ourselves in the grip of a mild but long bull market in emerging markets stocks, and the big question on all investors’ minds is whether the trend will continue into the new year. No one knows, of course, but the Cabot system says there’s no reason to fight the trend!

Bullish sentiment remains high, both for investors and advisors. And one contributor also believes that the market is becoming more attractive for gold investors. Our Spotlight Stock is a two-pronged recommendation, as the company is benefiting from owning and selling off its land holdings, which also happen to be in one of the most profitable oil regions in the country. As I explain in my Feature article, this oil basin is nowhere near depletion, so the profits should continue to roll in for many years.

The year is poised to end on a high note, as the major indexes continue to hit new highs, with the Dow hitting a record number of new all-time highs this calendar year.

As 2017 comes to a close, we all have a lot to be thankful for, as the bull market provided us with a great environment for stock picking. There’s always room for improvement (which we’ll probably write about in future issues), but coming into this week the Model Portfolio was sitting on a gain north of 40%. We’ll take it.

Looking ahead, we remain bullish, especially longer-term, as some big-picture indicators point toward higher prices. Near-term, though, it’s hard to ignore the optimistic sentiment, which we write about in today’s issue. It’s very inexact, so we don’t base trading decisions on it, but it’s good to remember to keep your eyes (and your options) open.

Today’s recommendation is a medical device company whose one product—an insulin delivery system for diabetics—is growing market share rapidly.

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes boomed again today, with three of the five we track (S&P 500, Nasdaq and NYSE Composite) all notching all-time highs. We would point out that today’s move came on obvious news (likelihood of corporate tax cuts), and that sentiment is getting hot and heavy, which increases the risk of a market pullback or a generally trickier environment (rotation, choppy trading, etc.). Thus, you want to keep your feet on the ground and be sure you’re looking for decent entry points and honoring your stops. But there’s no question the majority of evidence remains solidly positive, and until that changes, you should remain in a bullish frame of mind.

Not surprisingly, this week’s list has many strong charts in a bunch of different industries. Our Top Pick is Urban Outfitters (URBN), a solid turnaround situation in a newly leading sector. Try to buy on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS)	46.21	26-27.5	23.5-24.5
CF Industries (CF)	45.23	39-40.5	36-37
Cree, Inc. (CREE)	67.96	38-40	34.5-36
KB Home (KBH)	36.05	30-31.5	27.5-28.5
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)	304.69	72.5-75	66.5-68.5
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	312-322	285-290
PRA Health Sciences Inc. (PRAH)	96.08	87.5-90	82-84
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)	0.00	155-165	125-132
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	0.00	228-235	208-213
Urban Outfitters (URBN)	0.00	32-34	28-29

Since the last issue, five stocks have declined and 10 gained more than 10%. Many are now at or near fair value, and eight are rated Sell or Sell a Portion. Also in this issue, I recommend two new stocks and profile a new small-cap stock that’s on my watch list.

The Cabot Emerging Markets Timer is sitting firmly on the fence and some of our stocks are taking breathers. It’s not anything like a time to over-react, but we’re pulling in our horns in an appropriate way. We also have a new stock that does a brilliant job of balancing a national presence with thorough local focus.

For value-focused investors, this year’s prologue has been a welcome change from the turmoil experienced in early 2025.

In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.

The market rotation continues to be the main story out there this week, though rumblings of a potential strike on Iran, an update from the January FOMC meeting, and a slew of earnings reports and economic data releases have been giving investors plenty to think about.

In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.

Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.

Happy Chinese New Year! The year of the horse is upon us.

China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.

As U.S. investors have shifted from risk-on to risk-off mode in recent months, a clear disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” has materialized.

Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.

Cyclical stocks are soaring and technology is floundering in the transformed market.

The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.

Strong fourth-quarter earnings are confirming what the market was already doing.

Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.

Like many coffee aficionados, I have something of a love/hate relationship with Starbucks (SBUX). My main gripe is that the company’s food and beverage offerings have always been pricey compared to the fare served in most fast-food restaurants and run-of-the-mill coffee houses.

The outperformance of small caps continues.

Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.

All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).

Let’s talk about the power of staying invested.

Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.

NOTE: We’re sending this a day early as I’m soon to embark on a trip with the kiddos over the next week. I will be working a good amount from the road, though, and will have updates if need be. Also, next week’s issue will be published as scheduled.

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WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.

Today could be a big day for cannabis stocks.

The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.

Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.

I’m excited to share a couple of enhancements to Cabot Early Opportunities —improvements designed to sharpen our focus and better help you stay on top of the stocks we own.

This company is the subject of an investigative report published today by the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation.

This companies shares dropped 7% on February 16 after the company released disappointing fourth-quarter results and suspended its dividend.

Ongoing problems in China’s travel industry are concerning me enough that I am moving one of our stocks from Strong Buy to Hold.

GM has officially agreed to sell its European business to Peugeot. The deal was announced this morning and GM is trading slightly higher pre-market.

This defense, aerospace, and industrial contractor beat earnings estimates by $0.11 last quarter.

Costco (COST) opened 4% lower today following the company’s second-quarter report, which missed estimates.

Today’s special bulletin brings news on one of our stocks, followed by brief comments on additional portfolio stocks.

Analysts expect this stock to earn $3.48 a share, on sales of $4.08 billion, when it reports today.

We’re enjoying better-than-expected results from reporting companies this week. Here’s my quick take on three Cabot Small-Cap Confidential positions that have recently reported.

For 2017, 12 analysts have increased their earnings estimates for this home builder, and the stock was recently upgraded by FBR & Co. to ‘Outperform’ and by BofA/Merrill, to ‘Buy’.

GameStop (GME) is about 5% lower today after Target (TGT) reported earnings that missed estimates and issued disappointing guidance. Other store-based retailers are also pulling back today. Analysts fear that Target stores’ lower traffic and comp sales are a bellwether for other brick-and-mortar retailers.

This telecom company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.12 last quarter, and Wall Street is forecasting triple-digit growth for the company this year.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.