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Issues
In recent months I’ve been telling you that cannabis stocks were incredibly cheap and overdue for a bounce and now it seems the world is starting to agree, as all our cannabis operators (not the REIT) have seen their stocks climb in the past month.

Of course, the broad market’s rebound has helped, but the broad market doesn’t have the compelling fundamentals of the cannabis industry’s top stocks.



Bottom line: the first six months of 2022 were rough. The past month brought us a small gain. And I expect far bigger gains over the remainder of the year.



Full details in the issue.



Yours for wealth and wisdom.



The precious metals remain near their yearly lows, but a window of opportunity still beckons. Specifically, recent commercial hedging activity points to a possible bottom ahead for the metals.

Elsewhere, titanium remains one of today’s strongest metals. Other industrial metals, meanwhile, are coming off major lows but have rebound potential.



In the trading portfolio, I’m adding a potential short-covering trade for a palladium ETF. Details inside.


This week we are going to make a play on Qualcomm (QCOM), which is due to report earnings on Wednesday. And while there is risk in executing a trade ahead of earnings, we are going to play it conservatively by selling an in-the-money call.


For the first time in months, stocks actually have a bit of momentum. Is it sustainable? Or another false start? Too early to tell. But it’s a good time to keep adding beaten-down names that are finally showing signs of life. This week’s new recommendation fits the bill, and has been a big winner for Carl Delfeld since he added it to his Cabot Explorer portfolio earlier this month.

Details inside.


The big event last week for the market was that, by our measures, the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes and many growth funds turned up, which is enough for us to extend our line a bit—but, at this time, just a bit, as there remain many headwinds, including the longer-term trend and (very important) the lack of upside breakouts quite yet. That tells us to go slow and keep our eyes peeled for further upside confirmation—if we see that, we’ll continue to put more money to work in fresh leaders, but should the nascent rally hit a wall, we’ll hold off. For now, we’ve nudged our Market Monitor up to a level 4 and will take it day by day from here.


This week’s list has a bunch of names that have shown solid power of late, though most do report earnings within the next two or three weeks, so be sure to keep things small and aim for dips.. Our Top Pick is an innovative software firm whose stock is actually tightening up after a good-looking bottoming process.

There really isn’t too much to say at the moment. Our positions keep chugging along and while they are all still in a healthy position the margins of error, particularly to the upside on our SPY and IWM iron condors, have narrowed a bit. No worries, we will make adjustments if necessary, but for now the probabilities on all our trades remain in reasonable territory.

As for next week, well, due to the rally over the past week, we are seeing numerous ETFs hit a short-term overbought extreme. We don’t want to react too quickly, but if we see a continuation of the current trend higher, I think a trade or two will be in the cards as we want to take advantage of ETFs in a short-term overbought extreme. SMH is already there, but I would like to see a few others join the group before taking on another position.
Earnings season is finally in full swing next week with an abundance of high-quality, blue-chip companies due to announce.

Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and Apple (AAPL) are just a few of the names I’ll be focusing on. As you can see in “The Week Ahead” section below there are more than 15 stocks that I’ll be watching closely next week with the intent of making at least two, three, if not four trades.
All of the major indices continued to rally this week, which helped all of our open positions.

We sold calls against our newly assigned shares of BITO and GDX early in the week and decided to sell more puts in WFC towards the latter part of the week. We currently have five open positions.



That being said, I plan to add at least two to three more as we move through earnings season. I really like to sell puts for an expiration cycle or two in large-cap equities with highly liquid options several days to a week after earnings are announced. I’m currently looking at a few of the big banks to sell puts on next week as well as a few credit card companies including AXP, V and MA.

Stocks are on track to post gains for July as Explorer recommendations have a good week with new pick Centrus Energy (LEU) up 20% followed by Cloudflare (NET), up 15%. Now, we head to Germany for today’s pick.
In the July Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities I snag two stocks from our Watch List and profile three fresh names that have caught my eye. Officially, we add three of these positions to our portfolio, including a rapid growth software stock, an oil and gas producer with a growing midstream asset base, and a rapidly expanding coffee shop.
Enjoy!


This week we are jumping right back into a position in Dollar Tree (DLTR), which is a stock we traded successfully last month.
During the past two months we’ve seen big Fed rate hikes (with another likely next week), multi-decade highs in inflation, some earnings duds and leading economic indicators heading sharply south, but the market has held its own, and this week, if all goes well, we could get an intermediate-term green light. That means you should have your eyes open and shopping list ready, but we’re not ready to go nuts quite yet, as we don’t anticipate signals, there’s still plenty of damage to repair and earnings season is just revving up. For now, our Market Monitor remains at a level 3.



This week’s list has another batch of biotech names (including some speculative high-flyers), though for our Top Pick, we’re going with a medical services provider that offers both growth and reliability.

Updates
Despite a global pandemic and an economic crash, stocks had a great year. As of yesterday’s close all three indexes are higher for the year and very near all time highs. The S&P 500 is up over 14% while the tech-laden Nasdaq is up an astounding 42% YTD.
The market is relatively flat so far this week as more traders head home for the holidays. Coming into Wednesday, most major indexes were within 1% (up or down) of where they closed last week, though many growth stocks have picked up steam.
The Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor has an investment horizon that is generally one to two years. As long as our companies are making fundamental progress, we’re comfortable with waiting for periods that easily extend past December 31st. However, the market doesn’t necessarily share that perspective. For many reasons, including professional investor bonus calculations, tax-related trading, window-dressing and simple year-end portfolio house-cleaning, the market’s horizon shrinks geometrically as the calendar winds down.
I started my career as an equity research associate at Eaton Vance, a $100BN+ asset manager. It was a great place to start out because the equity research department was small relative to its assets under management. As a result, even as an entry level research associate, I had the opportunity to interview senior management teams.
It was a quiet week, with no companies reporting earnings (no earnings reports scheduled for the rest of the year, in fact) and no changes in ratings. We had three price target increases, for Trinity Industries (TRN), Adient (ADNT) and DuPont (DD), noted below.
The market continues to grind higher and the small cap index, which we haven’t talked about in forever, is finally opening up some white space above its pre-pandemic high. In fact, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is, at this very moment, trading at an all-time high.
Some of you might have been a bit alarmed at the message attached to last week’s issue that the next issue will be out January 7, 2021. But today we have an update and rest assured, I’ll be following the Explorer portfolio next week and will send an alert if anything unusual happens. I will also have another update and some portfolio changes the following week.
The market has leveled off a bit since the fabulous November rise. That’s okay. The market can’t go up that fast for long. It needed a breather and this is healthy. And the basic story still hasn’t changed.
With Christmas just a little over a week away, the market tends to go into a holding pattern. It’s a lot like the last weeks of the summer. Investors tend to focus on other things while the market continues in the same fashion as it did right before people stopped paying attention.
It’s been said that the four most dangerous words in investing are “this time, it’s different.” The stock market’s behavior is clearly pointing to things being different this time.
As we approach Christmas, its important to remember that performance of the stock market tends to be quite strong around holidays.
It was a quiet week, with no companies reported earnings (no earnings reports scheduled for the rest of the year) and no changes in ratings or price targets.
Alerts
This Canadian pharma company is forecasted to grow 111.5% next year.
Marijuana stocks exploded higher this morning as investors speculated that the solid Democratic federal government resulting from yesterday’s Georgia election would be favorable to this fast-growing industry.
This tech behemoth is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 18.76% over the next five years.
What is the one investment that is shunned and denigrated as a waste for your money? Cash. No one advises owning cash or short-term U.S. T-bills because they provide little in the way of interest income.
The top five countries in which this fund invests are: United States, 45.11% of assets; Mexico, 10.73%; Argentina, 8.27%; Brazil, 5.26%; and Cayman Islands, 5.05%. The fund has a current dividend yield of 8.07%, paid monthly.
This biotech is on the list of the top 10 IPO performers for 2020. It is expected to grow by more than 34% next year.
This pharmacy/clinic chain continues to struggle, but the shares are undervalued and pay a current annual dividend yield of 4.72%, paid quarterly.
Six hedge funds have recently purchased shares of this biotech.
This Real Estate Investment Trust is forecasted to grow its earnings at an annual rate of 17.47% over the next five years. The shares have a current dividend yield of 3.47%, paid quarterly.
Marijuana stocks as a whole remain very strong as we head into the holiday season, where trading is expected to be lighter and news announcements few. Today I have no recommended changes in our portfolio, though I do have a few updates, as well as a little advice on buying and selling.
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