Signs of IPO Momentum
As we head into the final weeks of 2025, the IPO market has rebounded from an early-December dip and looks poised to end the year with solid momentum.
SPAC IPO activity continues to be extremely strong, too – 150 SPACs are looking for companies to take public and another 100 have mergers pending. And despite rumblings about overinvestment in all things AI, there’s been reports that some of the biggest privately held AI companies are prepping for IPOs in late 2026 and early 2027.
So far this year, we’ve seen 196 companies come public, raising $36.4 billion. That’s 40% more IPOs than at this time last year, and a 26% increase in total proceeds.
The pace of IPOs implies the number of new listings will have grown for the third consecutive year, also topping the number of new IPOs from 2017, 2018 and 2019. If the momentum continues, then 2026 could be the best year since 2020, when we saw 221 new IPOs.
The high-water mark of the last decade, 397 from 2021, is unlikely to be challenged anytime soon though – probably a good thing since history has shown that was a frothy market, which was subsequently followed by several extremely weak years.
The following chart from Renaissance Capital shows what the trends in the IPO market look like.
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What’s New This Week
This week’s new offerings should begin with Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) today, Lumexa Imaging (LMRI) tomorrow and Wealthfront (WLTH) on Friday.
Cardinal will be brought public by Stifel and William Blair. Management believes it is one of the fastest-growing full-service infrastructure services companies in the Southeast.
Lumexa Imaging will be brought public by Barclays and J.P. Morgan and operates the second-largest group of outpatient imaging centers in the U.S., with 184 centers across 13 states. I’m interested to see how this one does and will likely keep tabs on it once it begins trading.
Wealthfront, which is being underwritten by Goldman and J.P. Morgan, is another offering I’ll be keeping tabs on. The company offers a financial solutions platform aimed at Millennials, Gen Z and later generations – i.e., those born after 1980 – to help service the needs of the “wealth builders” within these generations.
The high-level pitch is that these generations use digital platforms for everything from ride sharing to food delivery … why not use a digital solution like Wealthfront to build long-term wealth too?
What’s Worked & What Hasn’t
The Renaissance IPO Index outperformed the S&P 500 last week, propelled higher by Rubrik (RBRK), up 22.5% on Friday after reporting Q3 results, and CoreWeave (CRWV), which has been chipping higher since finding support near 66 around Thanksgiving.
Still, neither of those stocks has surpassed their previous highs or appears on my list of stocks I’m particularly interested in buying now.
Among the worst performers in the IPO Index last week was product testing firm UL Solutions (ULS), which fell over 10% on Wednesday on news of a secondary offering. It’s worth noting that ULS had just recently hit an all-time high, and this drawdown put the stock right back where it was before the most recent surge higher, which was catalyzed by the Q3 earnings report on November 4. A quick rebound in the share price after the offering closes could be a bullish signal.
A Coming AI IPO Supercycle?
The Financial Times reports that Anthropic, which brought us the Claude family of AI models, is laying the groundwork for a possible 2026 IPO. Anthropic has hired law firm Wilson Sonsini for this project.
These talks are reportedly very early stage but include initial conversations with major investment banks. Anthropic’s management team has indicated it will double to triple its annualized revenue run rate in 2026, to around $26 billion, and has over 300,000 customers.
Anthropic was most recently valued at $183 billion. A private funding round is currently being negotiated that could give the company a valuation of over $300 billion.
That’s huge, but the size of Anthropic’s potential IPO could be dwarfed by OpenAI … if it chooses to go public.
The Financial Times has indicated that, while an IPO is not in OpenAI’s near-term plans, it too is laying the groundwork.
OpenAI could have a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion.
If these two companies formally announce IPO plans, get ready for the “AI is a bubble” talk to really fire up!
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