SanDisk’s stock has staged a stunning rally, roughly doubling in just a few weeks. What looks like a sudden surge is actually the result of several powerful forces converging at once: exploding AI-driven demand for storage, tightening supply in the NAND flash market, a major valuation reset after its spin-off, and a rapid shift in how investors perceive the company.
Here’s what’s really behind the move — and why the market suddenly can’t get enough of SNDK.
From Cyclical Memory Stock to AI Infrastructure Play
For years, memory stocks like SanDisk were treated as classic cyclicals: great when supply was tight, painful when it wasn’t. That perception has changed almost overnight.
Artificial intelligence workloads are fundamentally storage-hungry. Training and running large models requires massive volumes of fast, reliable flash storage, especially enterprise-grade SSDs used in data centers. As AI infrastructure spending accelerates, NAND flash is becoming strategic infrastructure.
Investors have begun to value SanDisk less like a boom-bust hardware maker and more like a critical supplier to the AI data stack.
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AI Is Driving a Surge in NAND Demand
At the core of SanDisk’s business is NAND flash memory, and demand is tightening fast. Hyperscale cloud providers and AI-focused data centers are expanding aggressively, consuming far more flash storage per deployment than traditional workloads.
This surge is happening just as the industry emerges from a prolonged downturn that forced manufacturers to cut production and delay capacity expansion. The result:
- Rising utilization
- Tightening supply
- Improving pricing power
For SanDisk, which has a strong position in enterprise SSDs, this demand mix is especially favorable for margins and earnings.
Reports of Sharp NAND Price Increases
Fueling the rally further are reports that NAND pricing — particularly for advanced 3D NAND used in enterprise products — could rise sharply, with some commentary suggesting prices could even double in certain segments.
Whether or not prices move that far, the direction is what matters. Higher NAND prices flow directly into:
- Better gross margins
- Stronger earnings forecasts
- Higher justified valuations
Markets tend to move fast when pricing power returns to a sector that’s been depressed for years — and that’s exactly what’s happening here.
Analyst Upgrades and Earnings Re-Rating
Wall Street has quickly taken notice. Multiple brokerages have raised earnings estimates and price targets for SNDK, pointing to:
- Strong hyperscaler demand
- Improved industry discipline
- A more favorable supply-demand balance
Notably, firms like Citi have significantly lifted their forecasts, reinforcing confidence that earnings power over the next two years could be far higher than previously expected.
Once analyst models reset higher, institutional capital often follows — and that influx can accelerate price moves dramatically.
The Spin-Off Effect: A Valuation Reset
Another critical catalyst is structural rather than cyclical.
In February 2025, Western Digital completed the spin-off of its flash business, reintroducing SanDisk as an independent public company under the SNDK ticker. Initially, the stock traded without a clear identity, often lagging peers as investors waited to see standalone financials.
That gap is now closing.
As an independent company, SanDisk offers:
- Pure-play exposure to flash memory
- Clearer financial transparency
- Direct leverage to AI-driven storage growth
As investors compare SNDK to other memory and infrastructure peers, the stock’s valuation has been catching up fast.
Fundamentals Are Improving Alongside Sentiment
This rally isn’t happening in a vacuum. SanDisk’s business momentum has been significant.
In fiscal 2025, the company generated roughly $7.4 billion in revenue, growing about 10% year over year. Quarterly results have exceeded expectations, including around $1.9 billion in revenue in fiscal Q4, driven by stronger enterprise demand.
While profitability has been uneven due to investments and one-time costs related to standing up operations post-spin, management has guided toward improving margins and sustainable cash flow as scale increases.
That combination of improving fundamentals plus a powerful narrative is translating to outsized stock moves.
A Note of Caution
While the rally is grounded in real trends, memory markets remain volatile. NAND pricing cycles can turn, sentiment can swing, and high valuations leave less room for error. Plus, given the massive run (up 1,200%+ since the spin-off), even a hint of AI weakness could translate into a significant fall in shares.
Whether the stock keeps running or consolidates, one thing is clear: SanDisk is no longer being treated as yesterday’s hardware company. In the age of AI, it’s at the center of the data economy, and the market is finally pricing it that way.
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