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Stock Market

Investing in the stock market has always been an effective way to build wealth. In fact, it’s consistently proven to be the most effective wealth generator over the long term.

And, with persistent inflation an ongoing issue and the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates sooner rather than later, investing in stocks may be one of the few places investors will be able to generate consistent, inflation-beating returns for their savings.

Of course, stock market investing comes with more risk than a safe, low-yield savings account. Inevitably, not all of your investments will be winners.

In investing, no one really knows for sure what’s going to happen. Over time, however, stocks tend to rise. History tells us this. Since 1928, the average annual return in the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, is 10%. So historically, a well-diversified portfolio of stocks should allow you to just about double your investment once every seven years.

Now, there are periods where returns in the stock market underperform the average. Every few years we encounter corrections and bear markets, as we did in 2022 and 2018, and the years after the Great Recession and dotcom bust.

But over a longer time horizon, those off years are more than offset by the performance in bull markets. If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2014 and simply held that investment, you would have weathered the 2018 correction, the pandemic sell-off, and the 2022 bear market. And you’d have generated 16.5% annual returns.

You wouldn’t think that, with a correction, a pandemic and a bear market, the last decade would be anything to write home about, but those numbers speak for themselves. Despite the fear and negative headlines, investing over the last 10 years has beaten the historical average by more than 50% each year.

But, of course, your return would have depended on what stocks you actually bought. Take General Electric (GE), for example. GE is an iconic American company. As recently as 2009 it was the largest company in the world.

But had you bought GE at the beginning of 2014, you would have lost 0.7% every year, and that’s assuming you reinvested your dividends. Without dividend reinvestment, your returns would have been even worse.

That kind of unpredictability scares some people away from investing in the stock market. The track record over time should be enough to convince you otherwise.

The stock market is a vast and ever-evolving place, and there are many ways to approach stock market investing.

Want to invest in safe companies that offer a steady stream of income? You’re probably a dividend investor.

Are you willing to take on a bit more risk to go after bigger, faster rewards? Growth investing is likely for you.

Value investing is for investors who like to bargain shop.

Options trading is for those who like to invest based on statistical probabilities. And so on.

At Cabot Wealth Network, we have something for every investor. Our investment advisories cater to a variety of risk tolerances and timetables, depending on your preference. Since 1970, we’ve been helping investors of all experience levels achieve market-beating returns, helping our readers double their money more than 30 times over.

When done right, investing in the stock market can be a hugely profitable endeavor. For more than a half-century, we’ve been helping investors maximize those profits—and hope to continue doing so for another 50 years.

Stock Market Post Archives
Last weekend, I wrote about the mostly car-free German community of Vauban and I received lots of great responses both by email and on our blog. Thanks to everyone who wrote in, the letters gave me a lot to think about and some even made me laugh. Today, I’m going to share some of those responses with you and I invite you to submit a response of your own if you haven’t yet. If you missed last week’s issue, you can read it on our Web site archives.
The Santa Monica Museum of Art, although I’ve never visited it, has brightened up my week. I read in a recent news story that the museum holds an art sale every year called “incognito.” The idea is simple. Hundreds of artists (over 480 this year) donate paintings, all of them in the same format (8" by 10") and the museum sells them for $300 each, regardless of who painted them. Some of the artists in the sale are quite well known, and their works are worth much, much more than the $300 price. Others are, of course, are worth much less.
We’ve just left behind the biggest, baddest bear market of your lifetime, and we are in the process of leaving behind the greatest economic slowdown since the Great Depression. By no means do I think it will all be peaches and cream from here. But there are great advances happening in medicine, in communications, in alternative energy, and more, and I’m confident that early investors in the right companies will do very, very well.
Imagine a place where no one owns a car and everyone walks, rides their bikes or takes public transportation to work, to the store, to school or anywhere else they need to go. No, this isn’t some Star Trek-like fantasy world, it’s Vauban, Germany, a planned community where cars are largely banned in favor of other modes of transportation. A New York Times article this week detailed the particulars of this forward-thinking community; where a tram runs through the center of town, shops and houses are mixed together so no one has to travel far to do the shopping and people embrace biking and walking as primary means of travel.
Chevron Chairman and CEO David O’Reilly spoke about the need for energy security and alternative energy at the recent Chief Executives’ Club of Boston meeting. So clearly, with even Big Oil conceding the pressing need for alternative energies to be in the mix, the future market for Green technologies is huge. How much does Chevron believe this? It’s now the largest non-public utility producer of geothermal energy in the world and is one of the largest installers of solar panels in the United States. Even Big Oil is going Green.
A lot has been written in previous Cabot Wealth Advisories about how to pick a growth stock. The advice from my fellow Cabot colleagues is sound and, when followed, will lead to exceptional returns. The editors of the growth-oriented Cabot letters know their stuff, and can produce performance numbers that prove it. But I like value stocks, and I believe that value stocks should be included in your portfolio. In my opinion, your portfolio should contain half value stocks and half growth stocks and should not contain 100% value or 100% growth stocks. Value investing, perhaps more than any other type of investing, is more concerned with the fundamentals of a company’s business rather than its stock price or market factors affecting its price.
When it comes to market timing, I prefer to keep it simple, and that’s exactly what my Letters do. For the most part, my timing is based on two things--the trend of the overall market, and the action of leading stocks. However, there is one category of indicators that I do track ... though they generally give signals only every few years! Thus, you can’t use these indicators to tell you when to get in or out of the market, and they’re unlikely to be much benefit in your daily investing routine. So why follow them? Because when they do flash green lights, it tells you something unusual is happening--something unusually bullish!
Yesterday was my birthday, one I share with a U.S. president, several musicians, novelists and other notable historical figures. And one that I might share with you. Statistically speaking, all you need is a group of 23 people to have a 50% chance that two people have the same birthday. With about 160,000 Cabot Wealth Advisory subscribers, that means that several thousand were probably born yesterday. If so, I wish you a very happy birthday! Today, you’ll meet others who share your birthday. If your birthday wasn’t yesterday, I hope you’ll still enjoy the following wealth advisory and even learn some fun facts to share with your friends and family.
In general, you should work to hold your best-performing stocks as long as they continue to perform well, while getting rid of your worst performers, continually upgrading your portfolio so that it is always composed of healthy stocks with good prospects for advancement. In practice, this means you should watch their charts, and that, of course, is where it can get complicated.
Stocks don’t know you own them. That’s the standard reply to anyone who’s feeling paranoid because a stock they bought immediately fell on its nose. Similarly, the sports team you’re watching on television doesn’t know when you leave the room, turn your hat around in “rally cap” position, or give the evil eye to the shooter, kicker or passer. At least that’s what they tell me. The truth is, though, that while the stock may not know you’ve bought it, the stock market does. Or, rather, the market knows when a bunch of people have bought a stock because the chart reflects the rising tide of buyers.
The #1 request Cabot has had over the years has been to find great stocks sooner and with our publication Cabot Small-Cap Confidential, we’re able to do that. Cabot Small-Cap Confidential, a limited subscription newsletter, focuses on finding undervalued and little-known small-cap companies that are poised to break out in a big way. Or, I should say, the publication’s analyst and editor, Thomas E. Garrity, is able to find winning stocks sooner. His long career and varied experiences taught Tom to make investments only when the potential rewards outweigh the risks. He applies this philosophy to every stock he recommends in Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
I don’t drink coffee; my last cup was roughly 23 years ago. But that doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate the power coffee has in our society, both in the U.S. and the whole world. Coffee is the world’s most popular beverage, and ranks second only to petroleum in terms of dollars traded worldwide. And investors who spot new trends in the coffee industry early and take advantage of these opportunities can make big money.
The weather has finally turned nice here in New England, with a consistent string of 60-degree days and a couple of scorchers thrown in (we set records on Tuesday, with temperatures north of 90 degrees!). That means it’s nearly vacation time! And with vacation comes reading; I’m always on the lookout for good books, investment or otherwise, to help me unwind while I watch waves lap against the sand. Since this is a wealth advisory, of course, I’ll offer up some of my favorite investment-related book recommendations. Heck, I might even re-read one or two of these this summer. Here are some favorites …
Over the past 79 years, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks by 165%, and I think their prospects are especially terrific now; historically, they perform best following a bear market. My sense is that the old blue chips will continue to be hobbled (like Ford and General Motors) by their expensive old overhead, while their stocks will continue to be weighed down by institutional investors slowly easing out on rallies to invest in faster-growing small companies with greater potential.
Breaking news: Teenagers have stopped caring (as much) about brands and labels and are starting to shop based on savings and sales. Who ever thought we’d see this day? This week’s New York Times contained the story of how the recession has turned teenage shoppers, one of the most powerful spending groups, into penny pinchers. This, of course, has hurt some of the higher-priced teen shops, like Abercrombie & Fitch, while others, like A&F’s lower-priced sister Hollister, are benefiting from this change.