For most of the past decade, investors were trained to think this way: If a business is digital, scalable, subscription-based, and “asset-light,” it deserves a premium. AI is starting to flip that script. And early in 2026, the theme has been owning stocks where AI is an enhancer, not a replacement—and be careful with businesses where AI turns the product somewhat into a commodity.
That’s not an anti-tech argument. It’s a moat argument. This is what I mean …
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has been hit hard, with a roughly 20% loss in 2026 as investors worry that new AI tooling could undercut classic enterprise software economics—contributing to steep declines and major market-cap erosion.
Whether every fear is justified doesn’t matter in the short run. What matters is that software is no longer automatically viewed as “undisruptable.” The market is repricing perceived defensibility.
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And while software has been hit hard, these sectors, which are seemingly not at risk of being disrupted by AI, have been ramping higher in 2026:
Oil/energy ETF (XLE) is up 20% year to date, led by XOM, HAL, and CVX all of which are up 15% or more in 2026.
Chemicals, led by DOW, CE, and APD, all have been racing higher in 2026.
Transports (IYT), which is higher by 6% this year, led by big gains in CSX, UNP, XPO, LUV, UPS and many more.
And interestingly, option activity has been running wild in these sectors even as they are making new highs, including these trades from the last week:
Buyer of 25,000 Marriot (MAR) June 340 Calls for $40.60 – Stock at 360
Buyer of 7,000 Real Estate ETF (IYR) April 95 Calls for $5.40 – Stock at 99
Buyer of 5,000 Energy ETF (XLE) December 75 Calls for $3.64 – Stock at 53.3
Buyer of 30,000 Dow (DOW) April 37.5/47.5 Bull Call Spreads for $1.05 – Stock at 33.85
Buyer of 3,500 Verizon (VZ) May 50 Calls for $1.05 – Stock at 47.5
Buyer of 1,000 UPS (UPS) September 110 Calls for $14.75 – Stock at 119 (rolled from April calls)
I like these groups and stocks a lot as they have been grossly underowned for years, and if there is a shift into the long-forgotten stocks, the move higher could be parabolic.
Finally, on this topic of AI and sectors that may be at risk, @mattshumer_ posted an inside look at AI on X last week that got the attention of many on Wall Street, where he theorized that these sectors are ripe for disruption:
Financial analysis. Building financial models, analyzing data, writing investment memos, generating reports. AI handles these competently and is improving fast.
Writing and content. Marketing copy, reports, journalism, technical writing. The quality has reached a point where many professionals can’t distinguish AI output from human work.
Software engineering. This is the field I know best. A year ago, AI could barely write a few lines of code without errors. Now it writes hundreds of thousands of lines that work correctly. Large parts of the job are already automated: not just simple tasks, but complex, multi-day projects. There will be far fewer programming roles in a few years than there are today.
Medical analysis. Reading scans, analyzing lab results, suggesting diagnoses, reviewing literature. AI is approaching or exceeding human performance in several areas.
Customer service. Genuinely capable AI agents... not the frustrating chatbots of five years ago...
Stepping back, it’s unlikely that software and growth stocks are all dead, as there absolutely will be winners from those groups. That being said, in early 2026, there is no question that stocks in the Oil, Chemicals, and Transports groups have been the market leaders.
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