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Following a monster week of earnings, a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, and the January Jobs report, “risk on” continues to be the theme in early 2023 as the Nasdaq once again led the indexes higher.

Stocks trend higher over time. And history clearly illustrates that bear markets are ideal times to invest ahead of the next bull market. The average bear market is about 15 months long. And this one is already almost a year old. There is a high-percentage chance that a rally ignites in 2023 that will lead us out of this bear market and into the next bull market.

“Inverse Cramer” became a running joke online during the meme stock craze. Now a fund has filed an initial prospectus to make the joke investable.

Another year is coming to an end. It was a crummy year for the market. The current roughly -20% YTD return for the S&P 500 with two days left marks the worst yearly performance for the market since 2008.


Although it’s been a tough year for stocks, history strongly suggests that 2023 should be a lot better. In the last 42 years, there have only been 7 calendar years of negative market returns and 35 years of positive returns. Of those 7 negative years, 5 were followed by years when the market rebounded at least 20%.

In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.

This note includes the Catalyst Report, a summary of the December edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday, and earnings from Duluth Holdings (DLTH).

A new year brings renewed optimism, and boy do we as investors need it after one of the worst years for stocks in recent memory – the fourth-worst in the history of the S&P 500, to be exact. So today, as we enter what is likely to be (though not assured, of course) a better year for stocks – perhaps much better – we try and strike an optimistic tone by adding a promising mid-cap growth stock to the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio. It’s a brand-new recommendation from Cabot Early Opportunities Chief Analyst Tyler Laundon.

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the January 2023 issue.

In this issue, we discuss our Top Five Stocks for 2023. While we like all of our recommendations, these five have what we believe are the most favorable combinations of risk/return potential and timeliness.

We also review this past year’s capital markets and grade our 2022 outlook. We also provide our outlook for 2023, acknowledging the wisdom of Yogi Berra’s advice that “predictions are difficult, especially about the future.”

Like nearly all asset classes, high-yield bonds had weak performance this past year. However, conditions are more favorable, and investors may want to nibble on new high-yield investments.

Our feature recommendation this month is one of the most disliked stocks in the market, social media company Meta Platforms (META). The company’s core fundamentals are strong but are being obscured by the immense waste of capital that is its metaverse investment. Any relenting on this mission could lead to an impressive turnaround of the company and its remarkably inexpensive stock.

Year-end tax loss selling continues to pressure cannabis stocks, but that is leading to some attractive discounts in what could be a relatively healthy year ahead.

In a weak market it pays to identify pockets of strength, and these are the 5 strongest sectors heading into the new year.

In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.

Very impressively, the rally that started late in 2022 continued last week, as the S&P 500 gained 2.7%, the Dow rose 1.8%, and the Nasdaq tacked on another 4.5% of gains.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain defensive, but be ready to take some action. From a top-down perspective, the market is improving, with our Cabot Tides on the verge of a green light. However, individual stocks remain a mine field, with many acting better but plenty of blowups, including many high-profile names, like Meta (META) today and our own Wolfspeed (WOLF), which collapsed today after earnings; we sold our shares earlier today via a special bulletin.

The S&P 600 Small Cap Index hit a 2022 closing low of 1,064 on September 26. On November 11 it moved back above its 200-day moving average line and closed at 1,232. That was a 16% move off the low.

The index then moved sideways for a few weeks before dropping back below both its 50- and 200-day moving average lines in mid-December. At that point, the index found support at 1,135, roughly 7% above the November lows.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but keep your eyes open. The evidence as a whole remains mostly negative, with the long-term trend down, the intermediate-term trend sideways and most stocks struggling to hold breakouts. But we are seeing legitimate strength in the broad market (our Two-Second Indicator remains bullish), which is a clear positive. We’re not going to rush things—we’re still holding around three-quarters in cash—but should the market firm up there could be a lot of opportunities. We have no changes tonight.

As has been the case for months, the sellers stepped up this week once the major indexes approached resistance (generally in the area of the early December highs), leaving them in the red—coming into today, most were down in the 2% to 3% range on the week.

Earnings season is here again. It’s that time of the quarter that has so often buoyed and reinvigorated the market. But this one is unusual because average earnings are expected to shrink.

Earnings boomed after the pandemic. But now there are much tougher year-over-year comparisons and a slowing economy. The average earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 3.9% from last year’s fourth quarter.

Things are looking up for emerging market equities. They’re not fully healthy, yet, but there has been definite improvement since the August 16 low. In today’s issue, I have some thoughts about whether or not this is a bottom in emerging markets, and how we will know one when it appears. I also have an intriguing new IPO for you to consider.

While emerging market stocks (especially Chinese stocks) remain under pressure, we’re starting to see some signs that things may be turning around. Our stocks have been knocked around a bit by earnings season, but we’ve also had some good winners. And we continue to build a watch list of companies with excellent stories and intriguing charts that we will be ready to buy when the general tone of the market improves. Read on for my view on what’s happening right now and why it’s a good time for optimism.