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Current Market Outlook


On an intermediate-term basis, the overall market remains stuck in the middle—many areas are still looking ragged, and most major indexes are hanging around their 50-day moving averages. Our screens this weekend did reveal a number of solid five- to six-week setups among growth stocks, as well as lots of solid action in other areas that have recently come to life. If the market gets going from here, there should be plenty of stocks to jump on. We’re not opposed to buying small amounts of a couple of these potential leaders today, but until we see more than just a day or two of rallying, you should play things carefully. We have our Market Monitor at a level 6 (out of 10), and will simply let the market tell us (through its own action) whether the next big move is up or down.

In the meantime, we’re laser-focused on stocks that have either just blasted out of bases or uptrending stocks that have resisted the Nasdaq’s wobbles since early June. Our Top Pick is Medidata Solutions (MDSO), which remains in good shape after lifting from a two-year base in April. Keep positions small.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	138-144	125-130
Align Technology (ALGN)	316.20	145-150	135-137
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)	0.00	51-53	46-47.5
Exact Sciences (EXAS)	116.91	35-37	31.5-32.5
First Republic Bank (FRC)	0.00	100.5-103.5	96-96.5
Medidata Solutions (MDSO)	0.00	77-80	71-72
Puma Biotech (PBYI)	0.00	82.5-87	74-76
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	35.5-37.5	33-34
Tesoro (TSO)	0.00	92-95	87-88
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (WCG)	271.83	177-181	166-168

Current Market Outlook


After a big run last year and a moonshot during January, the sellers have finally come out of the woodwork, pushing the major indexes (and many leading stocks) sharply lower during the past six trading sessions, including a mini-crash today (the Dow was down 1,500 points at one point!). Looking at the evidence, the bull market (longer-term trend) is still intact, but the intermediate-term trend has turned negative and many leading stocks have come unglued. In the near-term, we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see a snap back, but following a major extreme in price and sentiment two weeks ago and this abnormal selling, stocks probably need some time to wear out the weak hands and digest their recent gains. We’re moving our Market Monitor down to neutral to respect the change in the evidence—we don’t advise selling wholesale here, but you should honor your stops and loss limits, and on the buy side, be very choosy and keep new positions small until the market finds support.

This week’s list is a potpourri of stocks and sectors, most of which have recently reacted well to earnings. Our Top Pick is Pure Storage (PSTG), a fast-growing outfit that emerged from a base on big volume last month.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Autohome (ATHM)	98.65	73-77	67-69
BofI Holding (BOFI)	42.93	33-35	30-31.5
Harris Corp. (HRS)	198.60	145-150	137-139
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)	40.61	46-48.5	42.5-44
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	85.22	59-62	56-57.5
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)	980.83	340-360	310-320
Meritor (MTOR)	21.46	27-28.5	25-25.5
MyoKardia (MYOK)	108.56	47-51	42-44
Pure Storage (PSTG)	25.64	18.5-19.5	17-17.5
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	68-72	59-63

Current Market Outlook


The market remains in great shape with all the major indexes in gear on the upside, a ton of stocks and sectors acting well and a general lack of selling pressure even after the recent run. Surprisingly, we’re still seeing hesitation among investors in terms of money flows, which, from a contrary point of view, is bullish. The next big test for the market and (especially) individual stocks is earnings season—how leading stocks respond (both those that have been running for a while, and new leaders that emerged in September) will have a big say on the market’s short-term future. But given the overall evidence, the odds continue to favor higher prices down the road, so any reasonable dips should be viewed as buying opportunities.

This week’s list is another good-looking mix of growth and industrial stocks with strong charts. Our Top Pick is Adient (ADNT), which owns about one-third of the car seat market and has big earnings, a cheap valuation and a tidy pullback after a powerful September breakout. Keep new positions small ahead of earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Adient (ADNT)	0.00	82-85	75-77
Atlassian (TEAM)	182.16	38-40	35.5-37
Baidu (BIDU)	0.00	257-267	236-240
CF Industries (CF)	45.23	35-37	32-33
DXC Technology (DXC)	0.00	88.5-91.5	83-84
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	85.22	51-53	47-48.5
Monolithic Power (MPWR)	0.00	109-113	102-104
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)	526.09	370-380	350-355
Thor Industries (THO)	104.76	124-128	114-116
Vishay (VSH)	0.00	20-21	18.5-19

The market has been choppy and unpredictable. Optimism about a “soft landing” is being tempered by rising interest rates. Either the strong economy or high interest rates will dominate the market in the months ahead. We’ll see.

But what seems to be quite clear is that the economy is solid for now. Third-quarter GDP is expected to be over 5%. Even if the economy does slow, it will likely take several quarters to slow from here. That means gasoline demand should remain solid. And that should be good news for refiners.

In this issue I highlight one of the best performing large company stocks in the energy sector over the last several years. It is also one of the few plays out there that still has solid momentum, as the stock remains in an uptrend that began three years ago.

Good momentum means high call premiums as more investors are willing to be on higher prices in the future. The refiner stock highlighted in this issue has a great chance of providing the opportunity to sell covered calls in the near future. It should help generate a high income in this uncertain environment.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones stock indexes appear to have tentatively begun rising above a trading range that lasted for six weeks.

This was another one of those weeks where you look at what the S&P 500 did—up 1.5% to a 52-week high—and you look at what the S&P 600 Small Cap Index did—up 1% to 945 and back above its 50-day line, but well off its 2019 high of 994 (let alone its 52-week high of 1,100) and you think the big picture is pretty good, but this still isn’t a broad-based market rally.

Utilities have long gotten a bad rap as being stale and slow, but the emergence of artificial intelligence has upended that narrative, and the best utility stocks are now moving like growth stocks.

There are three big developments in the cannabis space to report.

* A buyout of one of our portfolio names, which nets us 105% gains in four months.

* A confirmation that the Biden administration is serious about some major cannabis reform, which would be a huge catalyst for the group.

* A buyable selloff. Cannabis stocks sold off sharply Tuesday probably based on false fears that rescheduling won’t happen. I think that’s wrong, and the weakness is a buy.

IIn today’s Weekly Video small cap analyst Tyler Laundon illustrates how the broad market has put together another encouraging week and he digs into a few ETFs that show pocket of particular strength.

Mike Cintolo shares all his thoughts on the stock market’s historic crash, including some scenarios that are possible going forward.

For the second time since we launched Smart Investing in Turbulent Times in October 2015, we have a takeover stock in the Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio.

In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.

The cannabis sector remains in a correction, with both marijuana and CBD stocks trending lower, giving up some of their early-year gains—and perhaps building a bottom here.

In the meantime, more and more peripheral companies are getting in on the action, and we have been increasing our exposure to these in recent weeks while still holding substantial cash.

This week we’re selling one more of the pure-play marijuana companies, raising the portfolio’s cash level to about 27%.

Full details in the issue.