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Despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to sit tight on interest rates yesterday and rising concerns about upside inflation risk in the mid-term, the broad market continues to act well on hopes of tariff de-escalation.

So far, those hopes are well-founded.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

Current Market Outlook


Last week saw all the major indexes close clearly below their 50-day moving averages, a development which, combined with another batch of breakdowns among leading stocks and cracks in key sectors (like chip stocks), has us taking another couple of steps back—we’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 5 (out of 10) in today’s issue. To be clear, the market isn’t a disaster here, as most major indexes are just 3% or 4% from all-time highs, many stocks (especially growth stocks) are still relatively resilient and the longer-term uptrend isn’t in doubt. But the onus is on the bulls to take a stand. After six weeks of correcting and consolidating, we need to see buyers step up before putting a bunch of new money to work. In the meantime, we’re holding some cash and keeping new buys small.

Encouragingly, our screens are still picking up on plenty of attractive charts and stories. Our Top Pick is Innoviva (INVA), which has a couple of asthma treatments that are raking in the dough (much of it from royalties). It’s thinly traded, so consider buying a small position on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Align Technology (ALGN)	316.20	111-114	102-104
Arista Networks (ANET)	0.00	129-133	119-121
Bioverativ (BIVV)	0.00	54-57	49.5-51
HP (HPQ)	0.00	17.7-18.2	16.7-17
Innoviva (INVA)	0.00	13.5-14.2	12.5-12.8
JD.com (JD)	39.58	31.5-32.5	29.5-30
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)	0.00	49-51	46-47
PulteGroup (PHM)	45.93	23.4-24.4	22-22.5
Seagate Technology (STX)	0.00	46.5-49	43-45.5
Yum China (YUMC)	0.00	31.5-33	29-30

Nio’s (NIO) stock is down 90% from its all-time high, does the current valuation make it a compelling buy for forward-looking investors?

Current Market Outlook


The market’s intermediate-term trend turned back up last week after the major indexes tacked on more gains following the Fed’s dovish words. Combined with a bullish longer-term trend and many indicators that suggest investors remain hesitant, the path of least resistance for stocks remains up. That said, the market rarely makes it easy, and on that note, we’ve seen a fair amount of rotation in recent days out of some of the strong (and in many cases, extended) growth stocks and into other areas of the market. Overall, we remain bullish, but you should take things on a stock-by-stock basis—if you own something at a good profit, consider booking partial profits and trailing a stop for the rest, while honoring loss limits on any recent purchases. On the flip side, many “fresher” names look poised for higher prices as they’ve only recently emerged from multi-month slumbers.
This week’s list contains all types, but includes a few of those fresher-looking charts. Our Top Pick this week is Iqvia (IQV), a steady, reliable medical play that just blasted off from a good-looking rest period.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)	79.05	49-51	44-44.5
AAXN (AAXN)	87.11	70.5-73.5	63.5-65.5
CoStar Group (CSGP)	589.55	540-555	495-505
Exact Sciences (EXAS)	116.91	109-113	98-101
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	113.5-116.5	101.5-103.5
IQVIA Holdings (IQV)	157.93	153-157	141-143.5
Rapid7 (RPD)	63.52	54-56.5	50-51.5
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	31.5-33	27-28
Tempur Sealy (TPX)	85.53	70-73	63-65
Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)	26.82	24.5-25.5	22.5-23

Current Market Outlook


For many weeks, we’ve been writing that there’s more good than bad in the market, and indeed, while choppy, many names did work their way jadedly higher. But now the shoe is on the other foot: The intermediate-term trend is now down for the major indexes, and we’re starting to see more and more individual stocks follow suit. It’s not a complete disaster, and given the on-again, off-again environment of 2021, we’re not ruling anything out, including a turn back up in the days or weeks ahead. (Even now, we’re fine sticking with your strong, profitable stocks.) But after a couple of rounds of sharp distribution and some breakdowns among leading stocks, we think it’s simplest to say the onus is on the bulls—we need to see at least a few days of constructive action and some upside power in the indexes and individual stocks to conclude the sellers are losing control. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 5 and, until proven otherwise, would play things cautiously with only small new positions, trailing stops and a decent chunk of cash.

This week’s list has an interesting crop of stocks, ranging from commodity to reopening to legitimate growth outfits. Our Top Pick is CF Industries (CF), which is emerging from a multi-month dead period with a lot of power; as with most names in this market, try to buy on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Affirm Holdings (AFRM)	108	105-111	89-92
SKIN (SKIN)	26	24.5-25.5	21.5-22
Caesars Entertainment Corp. (CZR)	118	113-117	102-104
CF Industries (CF)	61	58-61	51-53
ConocoPhillips (COP)	71	67-70	61-62.5
International Game Technology (IGT)	28	26-28	22.5-23.5
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)	98	95.5-98.5	87-88.5
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	40	37-39	32.5-34
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	470	457-472	417-427
Paycom Software (PAYC)	495	480-495	440-450

Shares of new addition FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) are trading down modestly today but outperforming the market after delivering Q2 results at the crack of dawn this morning (not after the bell yesterday, as they were supposed to).

Nova (NVMI), SharkNinja (SN) and Soleno (SLNO)

Shares of GoDaddy (GDDY) are trading about flat today as the stock digests yesterday’s slightly better-than-expected Q1 report. The story here remains intact as we look forward to the full launch of Airo, the company’s new AI-powered solution for website creation and management, a significant pain point/roadblock for creators.

Following yesterday’s after-hours preliminary Q4 earnings results, we are selling Beta Bionics (BBNX) today.

Earnings Updates: PRMB, BBIO, PTCT

I’m playing things cautiously for the moment. On the buy side, I’m looking for stocks that are (a) acting calmly despite the choppy action and (b) are near support, so I can use tight loss limits to limit risk if things go awry.

Current Market Outlook


We can’t complain about the market’s action recently—the major indexes have (at the very least) held the strong gains of the past couple of weeks, with the strongest among them (like the Nasdaq) pushing higher. And many individual stocks (especially growth stocks) look vibrant, which is a plus. That said, we can’t conclude that the bulls are back in control, as most major indexes are still hovering around their 50-day lines, and in the broad market, the number of stocks hitting new highs (even on the strong Nasdaq) remains very low. We’re close to an all-clear signal, and think it’s fine for you to hold your strong stocks and do a little buying here or there. But right now, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at neutral until we see confirmation of an uptrend.

This week’s list has a ton of good stories and charts, with growth stocks well represented. It’s hard to pick just one, but we’ll go with Red Hat (RHT), which looks like a big-cap leader of the leading software group.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Arch Coal (ARCH)	82.27	95-99	87-89
GoDaddy (GDDY)	0.00	58-61	53-55
MuleSoft (MULE)	0.00	28.5-30.5	26-27.5
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	280-290	255-260
Planet Fitness (PLNT)	0.00	34-36.5	31-32.5
Red Hat (RHT)	0.00	142-148	130-134
TAL Education (TAL)	50.49	35-37	32-33
Twilio (TWLO)	183.39	31.5-33.5	28-29.5
Vale S.A. (VALE)	15.40	13.7-14.5	12.6-13
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	40.5-42.5	36.5-38

Small caps continue to underperform large caps in 2025.

The S&P 600 is up a mere 3.6% year to date, trailing the S&P 500’s 16.7% gain by roughly 13 percentage points.

The gap closes meaningfully if we strip out megacaps’ strong performance and compare the S&P 600 with the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which is up “just” 10.3%.

Explorer positions had an up week as the S&P 500 has begun a turnaround from bear market territory and is now down “only” about 13% for the year. This means it is up around 6% since hitting its recent low on May 19 as the Fed has softened its tone and China tries to get growth going.

Electric vehicle sales are set to more than triple to just over 20 million in 2025, according to BloombergNEF. This is up from a previous estimate of 15 million.

The general market picture continues to look bright. All three of our key market timing indicators remain bullish—both the market’s intermediate- and longer-term trends are pointed up, and the broad market is in great shape, with the Two-Second Indicator continuing to record fewer than 20 new lows day after day.

We wrote last week about how the unusually persistent rebound in the market bodes well going forward. And the good vibes have continued since then, with gaggles of growth stocks rising nearly every day and a vacuum of selling pressure. Also impressive is how stocks have reacted to their quarterly reports—earnings season is nearly over, but we can’t remember a time when so many stocks have gapped up on their results. Of course, the market isn’t a one-way street, and forgotten are many of the worries of a month ago; some shakeouts are sure to occur. But such power on the upside usually doesn’t just disappear. We remain optimistic.

This week’s list reveals a broad swath of strong stocks from many industries. Our Top Pick is AerCap Holdings (AER), a firm that buys and leases airplanes. Business is strong, earnings estimates are huge and a recent acquisition is a game changer.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Domtar (UFS)	0.00	104-110	96-97
Trinity Industries (TRN)	0.00	65-67	59-60
RetailMeNot (SALE)	0.00	41-43	36.5-37.5
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)	0.00	150-155	142-143
Nabors Industries (NBR)	0.00	21-22.5	19-19.5
Harman International Industries, Inc. (HAR)	0.00	102-105	93-95
Freescale Semiconductor (FSL)	0.00	21-22	18-19
FireEye (FEYE)	0.00	73-75	63-65
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY)	0.00	45-48	41-41.5
AerCap (AER)	0.00	41-43	35-36

Current Market Outlook


The market had a brutal day today, with the major indexes (especially the Nasdaq, which had been the strongest index) plunging on big volume. (The reason, Facebook’s naughtiness, doesn’t matter much to us.) Today’s dramatic move calls into question the market’s recent rally—most indexes we track are still hovering above key support, but net-net, there hasn’t been any progress for the past eight to 10 weeks, which isn’t ideal. As for leading growth stocks, they did get hit today, though most remain in good shape on their charts. All in all, we’re still in favor of holding your strong, profitable stocks and giving them a chance to consolidate. But with the market evidently still not out of the woods, it’s best to go slow on the buy side and make sure you honor your stops and loss limits while we watch to see how the market reacts to this selling wave.

This week’s list is more full of what we’d term secondary leaders—still great potential, but not the liquid leaders we’ve seen pop up in recent weeks. One exception: Nutanix (NTNX), which looks like an emerging blue chip of sorts, is our Top Pick—pullbacks would be very tempting after its super-powerful breakout.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AAXN (AAXN)	87.11	36-38	32.5-34
Baozun (BZUN)	44.24	45.5-48.5	41.5-43.5
HCA Healthcare (HCA)	137.60	100-104	94-96
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	82-84.5	75-77
Loxo Oncology (LOXO)	186.59	115-120	104-107
MKS Instruments (MKSI)	109.43	117.5-122.5	107-110
Nutanix (NTNX)	55.91	49-52	44-46
Pegasystems (PEGA)	0.00	59-61	55-56
PTC Therapeutics (PTCT)	0.00	27.5-29.5	25-26.5
Vipshop Holdings (VIPS)	14.25	17-18.5	15-16

The market remains in good shape, with the major indexes hitting slightly higher highs and most stocks acting well. Granted, many growth stocks have been consolidating their strong mid-May to early-June advances, but we’re actually encouraged by that—despite strong run-ups back to (or somewhat above) their springtime highs, the sellers haven’t been able to make any headway. Sure, that could always change, but right now there’s no question that selling pressures are light and the buyers remain in control. Hence, it’s best to remain bullish and pick up shares of new leaders either on powerful breakouts or on dips toward support.

This week’s list has more solid growth ideas than we’ve seen in many weeks. Our favorite idea is GasLog (GLOG), which has gotten a boost from international events, but whose short- and long-term growth story is compelling. Last week, the stock blasted off on its heaviest volume ever.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	55.14	99-104	92-93
SunPower (SPWR)	12.26	38-39	34-35
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)	129.66	70-75	65-66
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	77-81	70-71
Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD)	146.30	90-93	78-80
GasLog (GLOG)	21.39	28-31	26-26.5
Electronic Arts (EA)	0.00	35-37	31-32
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	160-166	148-150
Arris Group (ARRS)	0.00	31.5-33.5	30-30.5
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	89-91	83-84