June 20, 2025
Position Update – Robinhood (HOOD)
In a news- and rumor-driven market, a stock story or market narrative can be flipped on its head very quickly. Take, for example, UBER, which looked great yesterday. I wrote up call buying, and not 10 minutes later, the stock fell on a news item (the fall was relatively small).
So, with some trepidation, today I want to highlight very strong option activity in HOOD …
Call buying this afternoon in HOOD is extremely bullish, with traders targeting several timeframes and strikes. Here is a small sample of this option activity:
Buyer of 5,000 Robinhood (HOOD) June 77 Calls (exp. 6/27) for $2.70 – Stock at 77.5
Buyer of 3,500 Robinhood (HOOD) September 80 Call for $10 – Stock at 78
Buyer of 5,000 Robinhood (HOOD) September 85 Calls for $8.30 – Stock at 78
Buyer of 5,000 Robinhood (HOOD) September 90 Calls for $6.70 – Stock at 78
I think HOOD looks spectacular as the stock is trading at its all-time high, and options traders are looking for more gains to come next week, and further out in time.
Of note, with the stock trading at 78 our calls are now at a potential profit of 200%.
June 16, 2025
Weekly Update
Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.
Stocks on Watch
Clearly the situation in the Middle East and how the market reacts will set the tone for new buys and sales in the coming days and weeks. However, should the global macro concerns “chill out” and the market shows continued signs of strength, here are the stocks on the top of my watchlist for new buys:
Oracle (ORCL) has the look of a star as the stock rallied 13% on Thursday following blowout earnings, and in reaction to those numbers traders aggressively bought calls looking for more upside to come. I would love to see ORCL stock chill for a couple days, and this call buying activity to continue. Though of note, even on a down day Friday, ORCL rallied another 8%!
Peloton (PTON) continues to see wave after wave of call buying the last two weeks. And while the stock has rallied, it hasn’t truly broken out to the upside. I’m intrigued as the call buying was massive to start, and since then has been consistently strong.
And finally, Boston Scientific (BSX) was a stock that I was watching just a month ago after a big earnings reaction. Since then, the stock rallied a bit more, then chopped around, and more recently has been bleeding a bit lower. This pullback in the shares in the face of a strong market had me somewhat cross the stock off my watchlist.
However, on Thursday a trader bought these upside calls looking for the stock to make a run again at its highs:
Thursday - Buyer of 15,000 Boston Scientific (BSX) August 105 Calls for $1.95 – Stock at 98.
Because of this call buy, BSX is back on my radar.
Finally, on Friday of last week I added a hedge to the portfolio via a SPY December put buy. I had been debating hedging the portfolio for a couple weeks, and with the situation flaring up in the Middle East I felt the time was right.
Though of note, this is not just a Middle East hedge as I honestly have no clue how that situation will resolve itself. That being said, given the market run as of late and plenty of worries on the horizon, I felt the time was right to add some protection for the first time in many months.
Volatility
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 21. Interestingly, the VIX at 21 is hardly screaming panic even as many talking heads began using words like “World War 3” following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This somewhat low level of concern via the VIX would lead me to believe that the smartest minds don’t see the Israel/Iran situation getting out of control … for now.
Option Order Flow was fairly mixed this past week as my Options Barometer came in at:
Monday – 6
Tuesday – 5
Wednesday – 5
Thursday - 5
Friday – 5
Events for the Week to Come
Please note the stock market will be closed on Thursday in observance of Juneteenth.
While the situation in the Middle East will surely get most of traders’ attention this week, also of interest will be the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. And while it’s highly unlikely the central bank will make any moves, as is often the case, the language coming out of the meeting by the members of the committee will be of great interest.
On the earnings front, it will be a very quiet week, though traders could look to Lennar (LEN) on Monday, Jabil (JBL) on Tuesday and Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR) on Friday.
Open Positions
CSX (CSX) January 32.5 Calls – CSX had a somewhat wild week (for CSX) as the stock busted out to a new high on Tuesday on peers’ commentary at an industry event, and into that move higher a trader/traders again bought calls, as noted below:
Buyer of 4,000 CSX (CSX) August 35 Calls for $0.75 – Stock at 33
Buyer of 5,500 CSX (CSX) June 33.5 Calls for $0.25 – Stock at 32.7.
However, as the market gave up its early-week gains, so did CSX, and the stock was mostly unchanged on the week.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) November 43 Calls – Much like CSX above, FCX made a new recent high early last week before pulling back marginally to close the week. Not much more to add as the stock looks good, but hasn’t yet broken out to a new high.
Grab Holdings (GRAB) January 5 Calls (exp. 2027) – GRAB gave up some of its recent gains following news that the company would initiate a convertible notes offering. This stock reaction is typical in these situations, and I’ll be more interested to see if the stock snaps back in the days to come (which is often the case).
Marvell (MRVL) June 115 Calls – Our MRVL calls will expire worthless this Friday.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) December 590 Puts – I had been debating buying a hedge for some time and Friday was finally the day as the indexes were hardly down on the Middle East situation. Though of note, this is not a hedge against the Middle East going sideways. Instead, this is protection against that, but also against any reason the market may fall in the coming seven months.
Starbucks (SBUX) January 110 Calls – Quietly SBUX has been rallying nicely as of late, perhaps tied to rumors that the company has received lots of interest in potentially selling a stake in its China business.
Robinhood (HOOD) December 50 Calls – HOOD held its ground nicely last week following the news that the stock would not be added to the S&P 500 (for now). Very impressive action given the news.
Uber (UBER) December 90 Calls – Last week UBER looked ready to get back in gear as the stock rallied nicely early in the week and option activity and a Wall Street upgrade pointed to higher prices, including:
Monday - Buyer of 8,000 Uber (UBER) July 92.5 Calls for $2.30 – Stock at 87
Wednesday - UBER started Buy at Stifel with $110 target.
However, the stock bled back some of its early-week gains as the week progressed (like so many stocks).
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