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Market Gauge is 2Current Market Outlook


The market had a mini-crash this morning, as what looked like forced liquidation took the Dow down more than 1,000 points before a gigantic snapback. Today’s wash-and-rinse action (and the many climactic readings we saw) raises the prospects that a near-term bottom is in and that a bottoming process (weeks of vicious ups and downs) could begin. That said, the main trend of the market is down, so we’re advising a defensive stance—focus on capital preservation and building a watch list for the next sustained advance, while keeping new buys small. In time, we’re going to see some incredible winners set-up, but patience is required first.

This week’s list has a few solid growth stories, though they skew toward the conservative side of the spectrum. Our Top Pick is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which has the trading volume, growth prospects and dependability to keep big investors interested.

Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Tempur Sealy (TPX) 85.5369.5-72.567-68
Mohawk Industries (MHK) 0.00187-194182-183
Lennar (LEN) 61.8549.5-51.547.5-48
IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE) 0.00222-232213-215
Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) 35.2532-3529-30
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) 0.00104-10899-100
CyrusOne Inc (CONE) 0.0030.5-3228.5-29
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 773.32695-715670-675
CDW Corporation (CDW) 0.0036.5-3835-35.5
Alaska Air Group (ALK) 0.0071.5-74.567-68

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


Last week was a microcosm of 2015 as a whole, with plenty of ups and downs, intraday reversals, sector rotation … and not much overall progress for the major indexes. That said, we have seen more and more leading stocks hit the skids during the past two weeks, which is a yellow flag; there are still plenty that remain in good shape, but it’s obvious that picking your spots remains vital. We’ll keep our Market Monitor in neutral territory, waiting for a decisive show of strength or weakness before turning bullish or bearish.

This week’s list has something for everyone—airlines, medical, construction and retail. Our Top Pick is Wayfair (W), a newer stock that blasted out of a base on earnings last week as growth accelerated. Given the market, keep new positions small and try to buy on dips.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Wayfair (W) 167.0346-5239-42
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) 137.1096-9989-90
Sabre Corp. (SABR) 0.0028-2924-25
Molina Healthcare (MOH) 0.0078-8072-73
Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) 81.0249-5242-43
Expedia Group (EXPE) 0.00118-123112-113
Envision Healthcare (EVHC) 0.0042-44.540-41
D. R. Horton (DHI) 66.5530-31.527-27.5
AmSurg (AMSG) 0.0082-84.575-77
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) 170.65228-236212-214

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


Pure and simple, last week was a bad one for the market—not only did the major indexes take hits, but many resilient stocks came under severe selling pressure. The fact that strong, Top Ten-type stocks took hits (leaving fewer stocks in good shape) has us lowering our Market Monitor by a notch, and it’s vital that the repeated waves of intense selling seen last week don’t continue. For now, though, the bigger picture hasn’t changed: The trading range environment and the vicious rotation from sector to sector remains the order of the day. Thus, the general game plan is the same: being selective on the buy side and holding some cash on the sideline—as we wait for the major indexes to show their hand.

This week’s list actually has quite a few solid growth stories, though there’s definitely a bigger-cap tilt to the list. Our Top Pick is one of them—Lockheed Martin (LMT) has just hit new highs and is under strong accumulation as business is set to pick up.

Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Ultimate Software (ULTI) 0.00178-185168-170
Tesoro (TSO) 0.00103-10692-94
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) 0.0088-9283-84
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) 261.52166-174155-156
Lockheed Martin (LMT) 0.00205-211193-195
Lennox International (LII) 270.56117-120108-110
Facebook, Inc. (FB) 0.0091-9585-86
BofI Holding (BOFI) 42.93125-129114-115
Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) 0.0028-2925.5-26
Arista Networks (ANET) 0.0080-8275-76

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


The divergence continues, with the broad market looking increasingly weak. Even the rally last week couldn’t lift many stocks off their bottoms. So what comes next? Optimists may claim that low interest rates mean there are no attractive alternatives to stocks, but pessimists will note that divergences such as these seldom end well. Thus our market monitor remains unchanged—in slightly positive territory. You can still make money in this market, but more than ever, skillful stock-picking, combined with proper entry timing, is critical. So we urge you to study numerous individual stocks carefully. Try to buy on normal pullbacks. And above all, keep losses small if a stock doesn’t do what you hired it to do. Today’s roster includes some strong breakouts and a handful of set-ups, and our Editor’s Choice is Vantiv (VNTV), which vaulted out to new highs last week on a positive earnings report and is riding a fine trend of long-term growth.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Zoës Kitchen (ZOES) 0.0043-4539-39.5
WisdomTree (WETF) 0.0024-2621-22
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 230.36135-137121-123
Vantiv (VNTV) 0.0042-4539-40
ServiceNow (NOW) 341.8676-7872-73
Masco (MAS) 0.0024.5-2623-24
ICON plc (ICLR) 0.0078-80.571-72
Equinix, Inc. (EQIX) 547.73270-280260-265
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 0.00188-193174-176
Anacor Pharmaceuticals (ANAC) 0.00144-151125-130

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


If you haven’t stuck with a proven system in 2015, chances are you’ve been chopped to pieces by the market’s never-ending ups and downs. Today was another headline-driven selloff (Chinese stocks are seeing renewed weakness), but it doesn’t change the market’s condition—the intermediate-term trend is still sideways, with some stocks acting fine and others looking like it’s 2008. The plan remains the same—be selective on the buy side, honor all stops and hold some cash, but also give your most resilient stocks a chance to hold up and resume their advances. If leading stocks decisively break down, then we’ll change our tune, but so far focusing on the strongest stocks has been fruitful.

This week’s list features a few recent earnings winners, as well as a few that are set up well heading into their earnings reports. Our Top Pick is Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), a big-cap growth stock that remains in a firm uptrend following a better-than-expected report.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) 0.00248-256230-232
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 423.92101-10693-94.5
Infinera (INFN) 0.0022.5-23.520-21
IACI (IACI) 0.0078.5-8175-76
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO) 0.0059-6254-55
Criteo (CRTO) 0.0051-5348-49
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 773.32705-720660-665
Cempra (CEMP) 0.0042-4437-38
China Biologic Products (CBPO) 0.00112-117105-106
Amazon.com (AMZN) 2.00515-530470-475

Market Gauge is 7Current Market Outlook


Last week was a great one for the major indexes and leading stocks, with many surging higher on big volume to notch new highs, a good sign that big investors are putting money to work in growth stocks. That said, it’s not all peaches and cream out there—hundreds of stocks are actually hitting new 52-week lows (mostly energy and interest rate-sensitive stocks, but others, too), and to this point, only the Nasdaq has reached new high ground; the intermediate-term trend for most indexes remains neutral. Reflecting the terrific action of Top Ten stocks, we’ll nudge our Market Monitor up a notch; if you see a good set-up, go ahead and take it. But we’re still advising holding some cash on the sideline and being selective on the buy side.

This week’s list has a hodgepodge of stocks, many of which haven’t been featured here for a long time. For our Top Pick, we’ll stick with the big-cap growth stock theme that’s working well—Celgene (CELG) just popped out of a four-month base on big volume last week following a major acquisition. It’s buyable around here.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Intrexon (XON) 0.0055-5749-50
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 123.3229.5-3127.5-28
Progressive Corp. (PGR) 0.0030-3127-28
Blackhawk Network (HAWK) 0.0041-4338-38.5
Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) 0.00675-700630-635
Fitbit Inc. (FIT) 0.0042-4637-38
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) 339.47128-134117-118
Celgene (CELG) 0.00130-135119-121
Barnes & Noble (BKS) 0.0027.5-2924-25
Alaska Air Group (ALK) 0.0072-7466-67
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) 47.8447-5042-43

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


For the third straight Monday, Greece caused the market to gap sharply at the open, this time on the upside as a deal in Europe is coming into view. The snapback from last week’s panic has been excellent, and we’re especially pleased to see many resilient, growth-oriented stocks spike to (or close to) new highs. That said, even after the past two days, the major indexes are still hovering near their 50-day moving averages, and it’s obvious that news is driving the market on a day-to-day basis. Throw in the fact that earnings season is about to rev up, and we’re sticking with a relatively neutral stance—focusing on the strongest stocks makes sense, but so does holding some cash and ditching any broken stocks.

This week’s list has a group of names that should do well if the market’s recent strength develops into a sustained uptrend. Our Top Pick is old friend Illumina (ILMN), which is emerging from a very long sideways phase. Start small, and look to add shares if the stock reacts well to earnings next week.

Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) 0.0048-5046-47
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) 331.95161-164153-154
Tyler Technologies (TYL) 0.00135-140125-127
Tesoro (TSO) 0.0095-9989-90
RH Inc. (RH) 252.9396-10092-93
Nordic American Tankers (NAT) 0.0014-1513-13.5
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) 123.4047-5042-43
Meritage Homes (MTH) 102.2048-49.544-45
LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT) 0.0085-8777-78
Illumina Inc. (ILMN) 289.74215-220205-209

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


Greece continues to dominate the headlines, and this weekend’s “No” vote hit the market and most stocks, though nothing as dramatic as what we saw last week. That said, you shouldn’t overreact to today’s action, just as it wasn’t smart to overreact to last Monday’s drubbing. Overall, we’re still neutral, as the main trend remains sideways, and we expect further volatility based on the news of the day. Our biggest piece of advice is to take things on a stock-by-stock basis—many stocks are acting well, and you should hold onto those, but don’t hesitate to dump shares of stocks if they break key support.

Encouragingly, this week’s list contains a lot of resilient, growth-oriented stocks … just the kind of potential leadership we like to see setting up. Our Top Pick is Horizon Pharmaceuticals (HZNP), which is acting like it wants to get going should the market hold together.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Wayfair (W) 167.0335-3732-33
Valero Energy (VLO) 97.4063-6558-59
Receptos (RCPT) 0.00186-195165-170
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) 267.1494-9787-88
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) 49.8933.5-3530-31
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) 70.7030-3227.5-28
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN) 0.0064-6761-62
Celanese (CE) 0.0070-7366-67
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) 0.00137-139122-124
Acuity Brands (AYI) 0.00183-188175-176

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


With Greece on the brink of defaulting on some loans and/or exiting the eurozone, the uncertainly of what’s to come caused sellers to drive the indexes and most stocks down sharply today. The straight-down action of the past few days, which came on the heels of some encouraging gains, is a yellow flag, as are the downmoves of many stocks. As we’ve been writing, you should honor your stops (many stocks tripped their stops today) and be holding at least some cash on the sideline. That said, while we’re knocking our Market Monitor down a notch today, the bigger picture hasn’t changed—the major indexes are still within their multi-month ranges, and the best stocks are pulling back normally, so we don’t advise selling wholesale.


This week’s list has many strong stocks that have held up well during the recent selloff. Our Top Pick is Community Health Systems (CYH), which just exploded out of a base following a big court ruling last week. Try to buy on dips.


Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
SVB Financial Group (SIVB) 0.00141-145135-137
Sealed Air (SEE) 0.0051-52.547.5-48
Lennar (LEN) 61.8550-5247-47.5
IACI (IACI) 0.0077-7973-74
Facebook, Inc. (FB) 0.0084.5-8781.5-82
Community Health Systems (CYH) 0.0061-6357-58
Carnival Corporation (CCL) 0.0048-49.546.5-47
Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY) 0.0060-61.557-58
Arista Networks (ANET) 0.0079-8274-75
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) 315.2380-8276-77

Market Gauge is 7Current Market Outlook


The market remains very volatile, reacting to the news of the day (Greece, in particular, seems to be pushing and pulling the market on a daily basis), and most indexes are still trapped within trading ranges. However, stepping away from the headlines reveals increasing bullish evidence—growth stocks have been acting well for a few weeks and the Nasdaq has punched out to multi-year highs, yet investor sentiment remains apathetic. It’s not time to jump in with both feet (selectivity on the buy side and taking partial profits on the way up still makes sense), but we’re nudging our Market Monitor up another notch in reaction to the market’s action.

This weeks’ list has a good mix of names from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is Ciena (CIEN), which has a history of big pops and drops, and started a fresh uptrend during the past few weeks.

Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Youku Tudou (YOKU) 0.0026.5-2824-25.5
Intrexon (XON) 0.0048-5043.5-44
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 0.0046-47.541.5-42.5
Outerwall Inc, (OUTR) 0.0080-8273-74
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF) 0.0035.5-3732.5-33
Insys Therapeutics (INSY) 0.0037.5-39.533-34
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. (HDS) 0.0034-35.532-32.5
Salesforce.com (CRM) 0.0074-7769-70
Cheetah Mobile (CMCM) 0.0032-3429-30
Ciena (CIEN) 44.2524.5-2622.5-23

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


The breakdown of the Greek debt negotiations hit the markets this morning before some support appeared (partially on news that Greek talks were back on). Our main advice right now: Keep your eyes on the action of the market, not on the headlines. So far, the major indexes remain in a sideways range, while a few stocks are still in choppy uptrends. Thus, despite the news, not much has changed, and so we’re keeping our Market Monitor in neutral territory and sticking with the game plan of holding some cash and being choosy on the buy side, while honoring stops and booking partial profits on the way up.

This week’s list has some names that haven’t appeared in months (if ever) as some new leadership attempts to firm up. Our Top Pick, though, is a familiar name—Gilead Sciences (GILD) is cheap, flush with cash and just emerging after a long rest.





Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Charles Schwab (SCHW) 0.0032-3330-30.5
Signature Bank (SBNY) 0.00140-145133-135
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 423.92635-660570-580
Men’s Wearhouse (MW) 0.0060-6256-57
Mobileye N.V. (MBLY) 0.0047.5-50.544.5-45
JD.com (JD) 39.5835.5-37.533.5-34
The IMAX Corporation (IMAX) 0.0041-4337-38
Illumina Inc. (ILMN) 289.74209-216198-199
Gilead Sciences (GILD) 75.10115-119106-107
FireEye (FEYE) 0.0050-52.545-46

Market Gauge is 6Current Market Outlook


The major indexes are getting sloppier, with the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite now a couple of percent below their 50-day lines, and many individual stocks and sectors are getting hit. It’s not pretty, but this remains a split tape—the Nasdaq is holding up relatively well, for instance, and we’ve seen many growth stocks do OK in recent days, even as the market as a whole has dropped. Overall, we’re sticking with a neutral stance, which means holding some cash and being very selective on the buy side. It’s OK to pull the trigger if you see a good set-up or two, but honor your stops and don’t be afraid to book partial profits on the way up.

This week’s list is skewed toward the growth side of the equation, but has a mix of stocks that are in established uptrends and others that are just getting going. Our Top Pick is GoPro (GPRO), which has shown enough strength to tell us the March low was the bottom. Buy on dips and use a loose stop.




Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Zoës Kitchen (ZOES) 0.0035.5-37.533.5-34
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) 154.94109-112100-101
Skechers (SKX) 0.00102-10591-93
Shake Shack (SHAK) 92.0873-7666-68
Hologic (HOLX) 0.0034.5-3633-33.5
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO) 0.0056-5951-52
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) 0.00104-10598-99
Dexcom (DXCM) 421.3670-7265-66
Axalta Coating (AXTA) 0.0034-3531-32
AMAG Pharm. (AMAG) 0.0068-7062-63

Updates
Has there ever been anything as overvalued as SpaceX (SPCX)?

Elon Musk’s rocket and space-based internet company reported $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. That’s less than half the revenue declining electronics store chain Best Buy (BBY, $41.7 billion) generated last year, less than International Paper Company (IP, $23.6 billion), and barely more than Casey’s General Stores (CASY, $17.6 billion). Those three companies have a combined market cap of roughly $67 billion. As of this writing, SpaceX has a market cap of $2.7 trillion. That’s more than the combined market cap of Walmart (WMT), JPMorgan (JPM) and Visa (V). Together, those three companies generated $847 billion in revenue last year.
Small caps continue to hold up well. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up modestly since last Thursday and is trading just below the fresh all-time highs it hit earlier this week. The group’s resilience stands out, especially against a backdrop of narrowing leadership and ongoing rotation beneath the market’s surface.

The main macro development this week was the Fed’s June meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, which confirmed a shift in policy direction.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s bounce has been a good one, and the intermediate-term outlook remains bright. That said, near term, there are still some crosscurrents (rotation into the broad market, Dow outperforming the Nasdaq) that tell us growth stocks could throw us another curveball in the coming week or two. Overall, then, we’re mostly standing pat, but we’re going to add a half-sized stake in Guardant Health (GH) here, leaving us with a still-good-sized cash position of 37% or so. Details below.
Stocks started this week with a huge rally as the Iran ceasefire deal appears to be the real thing.

Of course, it’s been months of supposed peace deals falling apart. It’s hard to believe. I’m sure that fact is holding the market back somewhat. But this one is different for a couple of reasons.
Stocks are starting off this week with a huge rally as the U.S. and Iran have reached a ceasefire deal.

We’ve been here before. These peace deals have fallen apart several times. I’m sure that fact is holding the market back somewhat. But this one is different for a couple of reasons. First, it’s the furthest a peace deal has gotten with both sides agreeing and independent verification from Pakistan. Second, this is what a peace deal would look like at this point if it’s real and lasting.
[Note: The Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update won’t be published next Friday, June 19, due to the market being closed for the Juneteenth holiday.]

Before we get into the main topic for today’s newsletter update, a quick note on the portfolio is in order. I’m continuing our “spring cleaning” effort that we began last week by trimming a couple more of our holdings, but I’m also adding a new position to take the place of the recent deletions.
After two near-record-setting months, stocks are encountering their first real turbulence since March. It’s no surprise.

While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.
Stocks look set to enter the summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed, volatility has ticked up, and there’s been renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and valuation concerns in some of the market’s biggest winners.

At the same time, the macro backdrop remains a mix of resilience and intermittent turbulence. While economic data continues to hold up, energy prices remain elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict – which has no end in sight – keeping upward pressure on inflation and yields.
Tech, commodity, AI, and Explorer stocks struggled this week as concern over capital expenditures increased. Mideast tensions intensified and inflation numbers came in yesterday at their highest rate in over three years, fueled by rising energy costs. The combination of anticipated higher interest rates and rising bond yields impacted the price of precious metals, with gold sliding below $4,200 an ounce and silver falling below $64 an ounce.
Stocks look to enter summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed and volatility has ticked up thanks to renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and open-ended questions about valuations in some of the hottest areas of the market.

There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.
The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.
A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.
Alerts
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Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.