A fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran — announced barely an hour before President Trump’s self-imposed deadline to “obliterate” Tehran — transformed what looked like another brutal week for Wall Street into one of the best rallies of the year. Oil plunged, fear evaporated (in the short term), and the indexes snapped a five-week losing streak in dramatic fashion.

As I write this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up more than 1,000 points for today’s trading—due to the two-week ceasefire announced overnight between the U.S. and Iran.

Will it last? Who knows. It’s probably going to take at least a few weeks to determine that.

In the meantime, expect markets to continue their volatility.

Markets responded enthusiastically yesterday to the fragile ceasefire and expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The price of West Texas crude oil fell by more than 16% to $94 per barrel. Alphabet (GOOG) shares were up 9.4% this past week and Banco Santander (SAN) shares were up 8%.

But the economic fallout from five weeks of conflict closure will be with us for a while.

These are tricky times in the market. Recent events have made the direction of stock prices over the remainder of this year particularly uncertain.

The Iran war and ensuing rise in oil prices have been by far the dominant market force recently. The timeline for the war is hard to predict. But even after the war ends, the high oil prices could persist, driving inflationary pressures higher and cowing the Fed.

In times like this it makes sense to go back to basics. We don’t know the future direction of the economy or interest rates or the next phase of the AI trade. But regardless of what happens with any of those market-driving issues, you can bank on the fact that people will still get sick, and older, and need medications.

At the same time, many healthcare stocks are cheap after a recent selloff. Buying stocks that are both defensive and cheap while also able to thrive in a strong market is a great way to play the uncertainty from the Iran war and beyond.

In this issue I highlight three of the very best healthcare stocks on the market. After a rare selloff, these stocks are at bargain prices usually only seen in turbulent markets.

Markets delivered a strong week last week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.

Net/net for the shortened four-day week, the S&P 500 advanced 3.4%, the Dow Jones rose nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a gain of 4.4% while the Russell 2000 added 1.2%.

The market has had a nice bounce since last Monday, with most major indexes approaching their 25-day moving averages for the first time in nearly a month. Combined with obvious war-related happenings, the next few days should be telling: Usually in bad markets, the 25-day line will often be enough to repel a rally and prompt a new downtrend, but a decisive push above that line would be another constructive sign. We’ll be on the horn if the evidence changes, but tonight we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 4 tonight and see what comes later this week.

This week’s list is well rounded though is a bit heavier on the commodity side of things. Still, for our Top Pick, we’re going with a chip maker with its hands in many cookie jars, but it looks like it’s finally catching a hold of the AI bandwagon, which should drive margins higher. Shares broke out today.

Stocks finally had a good week, and our portfolio fared even better, with most of our names up 4-5% at a minimum, and several of them closer to (or exceeding) double-digit percentages. It’s just one week, but after a miserable March, the buying was a welcome change. We’ll see if it lasts. Bad news out of the Middle East or an eye-popping number from this week’s inflation report could send shares tumbling all over again. But let’s be optimists and add a big-name AI play that is hitting new 52-week highs and has enough momentum that it captured the attention of Mike Cintolo, who recommended the stock to his Cabot Top Ten Trader audience last week.

Details inside.

Markets delivered a strong week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.

Markets delivered a strong week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.

Markets delivered a strong week despite the constant Middle East noise, as a massive Tuesday relief rally and further gains on Wednesday helped the indexes finally break their recent downtrend.

It’s been an extremely volatile and news-driven past few sessions, but nothing has changed at this point with the evidence--it’s still pointing down, so we remain mostly in cash. That said, we actually think there’s a decent setup forming: Whereas two months go everyone was complacent but yellow flags were popping up, today many are worried but there are some green shoots, such as the resilient action from growth stocks and the Nasdaq holding its own. Of course, setups aren’t a reason to buy, so we’re standing pat tonight--but we remain flexible and have more than a few names we’d like to own if the market can get going.

Energy stocks have been crushing it this year, thanks mostly to the Iran War and triple-digit oil prices. The second-best-performing sector through the first quarter of 2026 has gotten far less publicity, however … materials. Materials stocks are the only sector up double digits through the first month of the year; they’re expected to grow earnings by 25% this year, and yet, the group is the second-cheapest by price-to-earnings.

That’s the perfect recipe for a growth-at-value-prices opportunity. And today, we introduce a mining stock that fits the mold perfectly. After a rough February and March, it has immediate turnaround written all over it. In fact, it’s already starting to bounce back …

Details inside.

Seemingly absent from the myriad discussions involving the Middle East war, soaring fuel prices and accelerating worries over a potential global recession is practically any mention of the turmoil in the private credit market.

This was a major talking point among financial pundits prior to the start of the Iranian affair, but it has since been relegated to the proverbial rubbish bin as mainstream news headlines are now heavily tilted toward all things Middle East.

Stocks rebounded the last couple days on hopes that the Mideast conflict will end soon and stocks for the week largely posted modest gains.

One winner of higher oil prices is China, which, while still the world’s biggest oil importer, supplies more than 70% of all the world’s green hardware such as solar, wind, and batteries. Beijing is installing solar panels at a rate equivalent to one nuclear power station every day. This is a big story.

Things are looking up. Stocks are up big this week after what had been a miserable month of March.

The administration is making noises like the Iran war will end soon. Of course, we’ve been down this road before. Stocks have been taking one step forward and two steps back all month. But this week’s rally so far has more heft than previous March rallies. Investors seem more assured this time that good things will happen.

The Iran market continues. Stocks began the week on a positive note. But it’s been one step forward, two steps back in a month-long slow bleed.

The S&P 500 closed last week down nearly 8% for the past month. The index is now within a mere percentage point of correction territory (down 10% or more from the high). But it hasn’t been panicked selling so far, just a consistent downward trajectory.

“Risk-off” has become the new mantra on Wall Street as fears of a global recession abound in the wake of the month-old Iran-Israel conflict. Not surprisingly, equity prices across a broad swath of industries have suffered as participants contemplate liquidity concerns as energy prices spiral, with select areas of the formerly high-flying tech sector facing extreme selling pressure.

But what is surprising to some is the way certain asset categories are responding to the broad market selling pressure. Some of the most historically defensive areas of the market are reacting in ways that are atypical, forcing investors to ask the question: “Are we entering a bear market, and if so, how should we hedge against it?”

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain defensive. The vast majority of market timing evidence remains negative, and while there continue to be some rays of light out there, most stocks are bumping downhill. Given the time since we hit new highs (back in October) and the fear that’s being built up (lots of headline-grabbing bad news), the odds are rising that the next upmove will be a lucrative one—but we have to be patient until the liftoff comes. The Model Portfolio has four smaller positions left and a cash position of around 78%; we’ll stand pat tonight, though we’re not ruling out a small move or two going forward, depending on what comes.

Investing in value stocks is a bit like putting together a successful March Madness bracket.

Sure, you could pick all favorites to advance to the Final Four, but it rarely works out that way. In fact, only twice since the current format (64 teams initially; now 68 teams, with four play-in games) of the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament was formed in 1985 have all four 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. One of them happened to be last year. But in the previous 11 tournaments, at least one team from outside the top 4 seeds (and sometimes multiple teams) advanced to the Final Four. (Note: This only applies to the men’s NCAA Tournament; the women’s tournament tends to feature far fewer upsets, for whatever reason.)

Oil prices, geopolitics, and shifting inflation expectations continued to drive noisy headlines over the last week, and the stock market has been responding with intermittent bouts of risk-off behavior.

Year to date, the divergence between large caps and small caps remains one of the market’s defining features and is – for obvious reasons – especially notable for us.

This Iran-driven market is getting a bit of a reprieve this week, so far.

The indexes started the week sharply higher on rumors of talks to end the conflict. If the conflict does end, there should be a strong relief rally in the market. But it’s also quite possible that nothing comes of the talks and the market selling continues. We’re certainly not out of the woods yet.

While the S&P 500 fell just below its 200-day line yesterday, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index has held up better. The small-cap index found support at 1,495 yesterday, the same level at which it previously found support last Monday.

It may be that investors recognize the more domestic focus of small-cap companies. Or their still discounted valuation. On the flip side, we’ll need to keep an eye on potential impacts on growth and the U.S. economy from the war in Iran, as well as rates.

Weak market environments are no fun, but they do serve a useful purpose. For one thing, they serve to flush out “weak hands” in individual stocks that are overcrowded with too many buyers. A weak market can also serve to build up a large amount of short interest that can serve as a fuel for a major rally once the air has been cleared, so to speak.

But an even more useful function served by market declines is their usefulness in identifying the leaders of the next major advance. Specifically, they show us that the stocks and industry groups that buck the trend during the market’s weak phase tend to be outperformers when broad strength finally returns.

Some signs of life are emerging in the market.

For starters, the major indexes have stopped falling and were actually up two days in a row (this Monday and Tuesday) for the first time all month. Also, Bitcoin – whose main utility is as a leveraged investment tool in a bull market – is up more than 10% this month, at a time when stocks have been going the other way, thanks to the Iran war and sky-high oil prices.

Shares of Xometry (XMTR) are selling off today for reasons that aren’t clear, since this morning’s Q4 report and forward guidance for 2026 were all good. Here are the details:

Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.

The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.

Valmont Industries (VMI) Reports

Shares of National Energy Services (NESR) are up nicely today after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 FY25 results early this morning. Revenue jumped 15.9% compared to Q4 FY24 (and +35% versus Q3 FY25) to $398 million (beating by 7.5%), and adjusted EPS rose almost 7% to $0.32 (beating by $0.07). The strong results were driven by high utilization and the beginning of work at the Jafurah frac tender. There were a few one-time costs in the quarter, including restructuring costs and two technology investment write-offs.

Atmus Filtration Tech (ATMU) Reports

Artivion (AORT), our MedTech company that specializes in cardiovascular and aortic repair solutions, reported Q4 FY25 results after the close yesterday. Results came in a hair below expectations. Revenue grew by 11.7% to $129.5 million (missed by $48K) while adjusted EPS improved to $0.17 (missed by a penny) from breakeven in the year-ago quarter.

BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO)

Specialty Industrials Shine. RBC and APGE Updates

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