The big news today is that our Cabot Tides are now positive, telling us the market’s intermediate-term trend has once again turned up, and thus making all our market-timing indicators positive.

This morning we sent out a bulletin announcing this and discussing two new buys and you can read more about those in this issue.

This buying brings our cash position down to 23%, which is still high for a bull market, but we won’t rush; we’ll watch carefully to see where the real leaders are and guide you to increased investment in them in the weeks ahead.

As the market continues to strengthen, we are very close to having all of our market timing indicators back on the bullish side. In the meantime, most of our stocks look good, with many hitting new highs in recent days. In fact, I can find none to sell today.

As for today’s recommendation, it’s a fast-growing Chinese stock with a product you’re probably familiar with. It’s not a low-risk stock, but with the right timing, it could be a home run.

Current Market Outlook


Not much happened last week, with the major indexes up a fraction of a percent and most leading stocks in a similar boat. But to us, that was a good thing—the fact that stocks held up following the prior week’s romp higher and a bunch of bad news (Iran tensions) and upcoming uncertainties (Fed meeting and G20 powwow) at least shows sellers didn’t pounce on the opportunity to bail. As we wrote last week, there’s more positive evidence than negative evidence, which is why we’re leaning bullish—but the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes and many stocks and sectors has yet to turn positive, so we’re also not pounding the bullish drums. Holding your strong stocks and nibbling on some good-looking charts is fine by us, but we also advise sitting with a chunk of cash and patiently waiting to see if the market can follow through on its recent strength.
This week’s list is a bit broader than those we’ve seen recently, with a lot of good charts and growth stories. Our Top Pick is Blackstone (BX), which has shown great power of late.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AngloGold Ashanti (AU)	20.45	14.6-15.4	13-13.5
Blackstone Group (BX)	49.12	42-44.5	38-40
Boot Barn (BOOT)	43.24	31.5-33.5	27.5-29
Casey’s General Store (CASY)	165.73	148-153	136-138
Haemonetics (HAE)	136.59	107-111	98-100
Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR)	214.38	104-110	91-94
Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX)	104.98	94-98	81-83
Penumbra Inc. (PEN)	173.25	161-166	147-150
Trade Desk (TTD)	468.02	237-244	212-215
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	169-175	153-156

Market sentiment for emerging and global markets improved this week and we are putting some cash to work including a new recommendation that plays on Asia’s thirst for coffee. Sentiment for emerging and global markets improved somewhat this week as our market timer (EEM) turned neutral between its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Uncertainty regarding China and Mexico is a headwind but institutional flows into emerging markets remains pretty robust.

After a brief decline, due mostly to the China and Mexico tariff issues, we’ve seen a decent rebound in the markets this past month.
Earnings for the quarter look like they are going to come in at a negative growth rate when all the reports are calculated. However, 76% of companies in the S&P 500 reported EPS numbers higher than estimated and 59% posted positive revenue surprises. The lack of growth in earnings is somewhat concerning, and that—plus the tariff issues—seem to be weighing on market prognosticators, turning their sentiment a bit more cautious, as you can see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer, as well as in our Market Views. In the meantime, our contributors have been knee-deep in research and analysis, and have come up with some very interesting ideas for you this month.

If you don’t know by now, I’m a big fan of diversification; I love having a portfolio that has hot stocks of fast-growing young companies, low-risk stocks of established companies, high-yielding stocks of underappreciated companies, and more—because you never know which way the market is going to zig, but when you’re diversified you’re always winning somewhere.

Current Market Outlook


The market’s correction was in full force a week ago, with the S&P and Nasdaq falling to new correction lows and many resilient stocks beginning to give up the ghost. But since then stocks have turned on a dime—whatever the reason (Fed, less-heated trade rhetoric, Mexico deal), the market has soared amidst a vacuum of selling pressure, with the major indexes, the broad market (most number of stocks hitting new highs in months) and many growth stocks all kicking into gear. That said, the intermediate-term trend has not yet turned positive (it’s very close, but not quite there yet) and many stocks are now either extended or running into resistance, so we don’t advise throwing caution to the wind. But there’s no question that the action is encouraging —we’re bumping up our Market Monitor to a level 7 tonight.

This week’s list has a nice batch of stocks, including a few that are hot and others that are just emerging. Our Top Pick is Zillow (Z), which has changed character over the past few weeks and looks like a leader should the market’s rally continue.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ciena (CIEN)	44.25	42.5-44.5	38.5-40
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	118-124	104-107
The Walt Disney Company (DIS)	144.76	135-138	125-127
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL)	51.30	36-38	32.5-33.5
MongoDB (MDB)	156.56	165-170	149-152
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS)	35.09	34.5-36	30.5-32
UniQure (QURE)	74.08	72.5-75.5	63-65
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)	137.10	131-135	121-124
Zillow (Z)	76.64	44.5-46.5	40-41.5
Zoom Communications (ZM)	155.83	95-102	81-85

Today’s Cabot Small-Cap Confidential candidate runs an online marketplace for a different type of market where over $120 billion is spent each year. The trend is strong, and it’s still early days. All the details are inside the June Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.

After two near-record-setting months, stocks are encountering their first real turbulence since March. It’s no surprise.

While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.

Stocks look to enter summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed and volatility has ticked up thanks to renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and open-ended questions about valuations in some of the hottest areas of the market.

There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.

The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The overall market remains in good shape, though we are seeing some exuberance on the upside and also a few leaders begin to act sloppy. Near term, then, it’s still a coin flip as to what comes, but the vast majority of intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we took partial profits in Marvell (MRVL) earlier this week; tonight, we’re buying a half-sized position (5% of the account) in Bloom Energy (BE), which is extremely volatile but also strong and coming off a few weeks of rest. Our cash position will now be around 28%.

This market just keeps going higher.

Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.

Despite the negative headlines and volatility, stocks just keep going.

After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.

This week’s Memorial Day observance marked the traditional onset of the summer vacation season for millions of Americans. It’s a time of traveling, sightseeing, picnics and parties. It’s also the peak season for enjoying cold, carbonated beverages like soda pop and energy drinks.

With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.

On the heels of a miserable March and a euphoric April, I wrote several weeks ago in this space that I thought May would determine which direction the market is truly headed, at least in the intermediate term. We have our answer, and it’s a definitive “up.”

All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.

Stocks have largely shrugged off this week’s dust‑ups in the Middle East as investors continue to bet on a near‑term memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and push bigger sticking points between the U.S. and Iran down the road.

Yields have cooled off this week and continue to do so this morning, thanks to a slightly lower‑than‑expected core PCE reading. April core PCE rose 0.2% month over month, below both March’s 0.3% reading and consensus, giving the Fed some breathing room as policymakers weigh the competing forces of inflation and growth.

The $145 trillion global bond market is under some stress due to runaway debt. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yielded over 5% last week, up from 4.63% at the end of February. Americans are struggling to keep up with their debt payments, as the cost of borrowing money increases. This is a global story. In Japan, the 30-year government bond yield just hit a record of 4.15%, and U.K. government debt jumped to 5.85% earlier this month.

Nothing stops this market. The S&P 500 hit another new high this week.

The spectacular earnings season helped power the rally. Average earnings growth on the S&P 500 is over 28% in the first quarter. That is far better than the expected 13.1% and the highest level of growth for any quarter since 2021.

In the past 30 days, seven analysts have increased their earnings forecasts for this drug maker.

In the past 30 days, 11 analysts have increased their earnings forecasts for this homebuilder.

The top five holdings of this mutual fund are: Abiomed Inc (ABMD, 3.31%); Seattle Genetics Inc (SGEN, 3.23%); Eli Lilly and Co (LLY, 3.08%); Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR (BABA, 2.84%) and American Airlines Group Inc (AAL, 2.80%).

The shares of this medical device company were just upgraded by JP Morgan to ‘Overweight’, and eight analysts have increased their earnings estimates for the company in the past 30 days.

Comments on one of our stocks, one stock rejoins the Growth Portfolio, and one of our companies reported a fourth-quarter earnings beat.

The top five sectors in this fund are Financials (42.66% of assets); Communications (18.77%), and Consumer Cyclical (13.32%).

Updates on three of our stocks that reported quarterly earnings, plus updates on two stocks with Strong Buy ratings.

In the last few weeks, this energy company has also attracted Wall Street’s attention, with coverage of the shares initiated at both Credit Suisse (Outperform) and Citigroup (Buy).

Analysts expect growth of 70% for this industrial company next year.

These two banks are a great entrée into participating in the ADR markets.

The shares of this automotive systems supplier just hit their 52-week high. The company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.05 last quarter, perhaps a harbinger of growth to come as it takes on a leading role in autonomous vehicles.

The shares of this optical sensor company were just initiated at Dougherty, with a ‘Buy’ rating.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.