Issues
Current Market OutlookThe most bullish thing the stock market can do is go up, so by that measure, the market looks pretty bullish right here—most major indexes, advance-decline lines and a bunch of leading stocks have hit new highs in recent days, keeping the major trends pointed up. Short-term, things are a bit too quiet, so some wobbles wouldn’t shock us, but the next two or three weeks will likely see stocks being pushed and pulled by earnings season, which is getting underway now. All in all, our advice remains the same: Hold your strong stocks (though booking partial profits on the way up makes sense) and remain mostly invested, but for new buying, focus on stocks that have shown strong recent accumulation and look for decent entry points, especially if the firm is reporting earnings soon.
This week’s list has a bevy of potential leaders, including a few names that are trying to emerge from multi-month rest periods. Our Top Pick is Elastic (ESTC), an IPO from last year that’s racing up the right-hand side of a four-month consolidation. Start small and look for dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond Meat (BYND) | 132.87 | ||
| Blackstone Group (BX) | 49.12 | ||
| Boston Beer Company (SAM) | 459.16 | ||
| Carvana (CVNA) | 82.90 | ||
| Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD) | 51.01 | ||
| Dexcom (DXCM) | 421.36 | ||
| Elastic (ESTC) | 86.17 | ||
| Haemonetics (HAE) | 136.59 | ||
| Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) | 120.93 | ||
| Yeti Holdings (YETI) | 42.80 |
Emerging and global markets had a good week with some standout performers such as NIO and SEA. Zero progress on U.S.-China talks was overshadowed by anticipated interest rate cuts. Today we recommend a stock from the Watch List and upgrade an idea in the portfolio.
Congratulations to our Top Picks for 2019! For the first half of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 11.8%; the S&P 500 gained 14.3%, and the NASDAQ has returned 16.1%. Our Top Five picks averaged gains of 68.02%!
The broad market remains in fine health, with all major indexes trending higher and sentiment measures still telling us this market has not yet reached the stage where amateurs are sucked in to buying at the top. Thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks that fit your investment needs.
However, I will note that the fact that the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio is now full, and that it is difficult to choose a stock to sell, is a sign that, at least in the short term, the market is high and thus ripe for a correction. If that makes sense to you, you might want to hold off on new investments.
In any case, today’s recommendation is a true diversification play, a small but high-potential Indian company that is destined to benefit from that country’s growth and the growth of tourism in the years ahead.
However, I will note that the fact that the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio is now full, and that it is difficult to choose a stock to sell, is a sign that, at least in the short term, the market is high and thus ripe for a correction. If that makes sense to you, you might want to hold off on new investments.
In any case, today’s recommendation is a true diversification play, a small but high-potential Indian company that is destined to benefit from that country’s growth and the growth of tourism in the years ahead.
Current Market OutlookThere remain some imperfections in the market’s armor, including a continued lack of pep from small- and mid-cap indexes. And there are still plenty of uncertainties, including the upcoming earnings season and the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiation/battle. But you can always find things to worry about in the stock market—the key is to focus on a handful of time-tested indicators and let them guide you. For us, that involves the trends of the major indexes (intermediate- and longer-term trends are pointed up), the action of Top Ten stocks (vast majority look solid) and, to a lesser extent, sentiment (which remains neutral at best). You should still be following your loss limits and stops, and on the buy side, picking your stocks (and your spots) carefully, especially if something has earnings coming up in a couple of weeks. But overall, you should remain in a constructive stance.
Impressively, this week’s list has a nice batch of growth-oriented stocks with solid stories. Our Top Pick is Sunrun (RUN), which is a bit thin and wild, but has shown fantastic action lately and has a solid growth story.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Amarin (AMRN) | 14.06 | ||
| Arconic (ARNC) | 17.00 | ||
| Avalara (AVLR) | 102.00 | ||
| Baozun (BZUN) | 44.24 | ||
| First Solar (FSLR) | 83.74 | ||
| Illumina Inc. (ILMN) | 289.74 | ||
| MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) | 980.83 | ||
| Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) | 129.66 | ||
| Sunrun (RUN) | 38.40 | ||
| Zscaler (ZS) | 126.22 |
It was a great month for the markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 1,400 points. The economy remains sound; housing prices have mitigated somewhat; unemployment is healthy; and consumers are still confident.
That’s a nice setting for our Top Picks issue. Our contributors—so far in 2019—have had a banner year.
I have to brag a bit here about our Cabot contributors, as they took the top three spots!
But, seriously, the thriving market—and some good stock picking—served us well.
That’s a nice setting for our Top Picks issue. Our contributors—so far in 2019—have had a banner year.
I have to brag a bit here about our Cabot contributors, as they took the top three spots!
But, seriously, the thriving market—and some good stock picking—served us well.
As we begin the second half of the year, the odds continue to favor higher prices for the market down the road, so we remain in a generally bullish stance. Of course, the short-term will likely be news driven (trade talk, war fears and earnings season), but the big picture is looking sunny.
Individual growth stocks are a bit more divergent, with some looking tired but other, newer leaders looking peppy.
Individual growth stocks are a bit more divergent, with some looking tired but other, newer leaders looking peppy.
A large number of our portfolio stocks are experiencing bullish price action right now. Unless something ugly hits news headlines in the next few days, we’re probably going to enjoy a strong stock market in the first half of July. I hope you’re not sitting on the sidelines!
Updates
After two near-record-setting months, stocks are encountering their first real turbulence since March. It’s no surprise.
While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.
While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.
Stocks look to enter summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed and volatility has ticked up thanks to renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and open-ended questions about valuations in some of the hottest areas of the market.
There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.
There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.
The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?
The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.
A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The overall market remains in good shape, though we are seeing some exuberance on the upside and also a few leaders begin to act sloppy. Near term, then, it’s still a coin flip as to what comes, but the vast majority of intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we took partial profits in Marvell (MRVL) earlier this week; tonight, we’re buying a half-sized position (5% of the account) in Bloom Energy (BE), which is extremely volatile but also strong and coming off a few weeks of rest. Our cash position will now be around 28%.
This market just keeps going higher.
Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.
Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.
Despite the negative headlines and volatility, stocks just keep going.
After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.
After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.
This week’s Memorial Day observance marked the traditional onset of the summer vacation season for millions of Americans. It’s a time of traveling, sightseeing, picnics and parties. It’s also the peak season for enjoying cold, carbonated beverages like soda pop and energy drinks.
With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.
With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.
On the heels of a miserable March and a euphoric April, I wrote several weeks ago in this space that I thought May would determine which direction the market is truly headed, at least in the intermediate term. We have our answer, and it’s a definitive “up.”
All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.
All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.
Stocks have largely shrugged off this week’s dust‑ups in the Middle East as investors continue to bet on a near‑term memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and push bigger sticking points between the U.S. and Iran down the road.
Yields have cooled off this week and continue to do so this morning, thanks to a slightly lower‑than‑expected core PCE reading. April core PCE rose 0.2% month over month, below both March’s 0.3% reading and consensus, giving the Fed some breathing room as policymakers weigh the competing forces of inflation and growth.
Yields have cooled off this week and continue to do so this morning, thanks to a slightly lower‑than‑expected core PCE reading. April core PCE rose 0.2% month over month, below both March’s 0.3% reading and consensus, giving the Fed some breathing room as policymakers weigh the competing forces of inflation and growth.
The $145 trillion global bond market is under some stress due to runaway debt. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yielded over 5% last week, up from 4.63% at the end of February. Americans are struggling to keep up with their debt payments, as the cost of borrowing money increases. This is a global story. In Japan, the 30-year government bond yield just hit a record of 4.15%, and U.K. government debt jumped to 5.85% earlier this month.
Nothing stops this market. The S&P 500 hit another new high this week.
The spectacular earnings season helped power the rally. Average earnings growth on the S&P 500 is over 28% in the first quarter. That is far better than the expected 13.1% and the highest level of growth for any quarter since 2021.
The spectacular earnings season helped power the rally. Average earnings growth on the S&P 500 is over 28% in the first quarter. That is far better than the expected 13.1% and the highest level of growth for any quarter since 2021.
Alerts
The major indexes are testing their Tuesday lows, but the intermediate-term trend is clearly down and the sellers are punishing many stocks.
I expect the S&P 500 index to trade between the recent high and low for a while, several weeks or months, before attempting new highs again. Start investing your cash. Lots of the portfolio stocks are down, and I encourage you to buy any of the buy-rated stocks this week. We’re moving one stock from Hold to Strong Buy.
Analysts expect this potash company to grow by triple-digits next year.
An update on a previous recommendation.
This food production technology company beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.04 last quarter and is forecast to grow by double-digits annually for the next five years.
Analysts expect this childcare provider to grow at more than 15% annually over the next five years.
The major indexes suffered another huge wave of selling today, with the Dow cascading 1175 points and the Nasdaq losing 273 points.
The recent wave of selling has taken a bite out of the major indexes, and has undercut most of the stocks in our portfolio.
The major indexes collapsed on Friday, with the Dow plunging 666 points and the Nasdaq losing 145 points, capping off the index’s worst week in a couple of years.
Our latest recommendation, pulled back sharply after reporting earnings Friday morning.
Citigroup recently upgraded this medical device company’s shares to ‘Buy”.
One stock moves from Hold to Buy, one moves from Hold to Sell, and we have earnings reports on five stocks.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.