Issues
Amidst the highly uncertain prognosis for the market, one industry is on its own schedule – energy.
Beyond the immediate price gyrations, the Iran war has changed things.
Before the war, the outlook for energy prices over the rest of this year and beyond was bearish. But that’s changed. Most forecasts are now calling for significantly higher average oil and gas prices going forward than were predicted before the war. And that was before hostilities resumed.
The forecast is higher prices than previously thought, with a significant risk of still higher prices ahead. Meanwhile, the prices of most energy stocks have fallen significantly over the past couple of months.
The current energy situation isn’t even the best reason to buy the best energy stocks. The current situation creates a good entry point for stocks that should have solid longer-term returns. In this issue, one of the very best exploration and production companies is highlighted.
Beyond the immediate price gyrations, the Iran war has changed things.
Before the war, the outlook for energy prices over the rest of this year and beyond was bearish. But that’s changed. Most forecasts are now calling for significantly higher average oil and gas prices going forward than were predicted before the war. And that was before hostilities resumed.
The forecast is higher prices than previously thought, with a significant risk of still higher prices ahead. Meanwhile, the prices of most energy stocks have fallen significantly over the past couple of months.
The current energy situation isn’t even the best reason to buy the best energy stocks. The current situation creates a good entry point for stocks that should have solid longer-term returns. In this issue, one of the very best exploration and production companies is highlighted.
After eight weeks of correction and consolidation, the market is still in the throes of no man’s land. Big picture, the odds continue to favor the next major move being up, and it’s possible earnings season launches some winners given that many stocks have been resting for a couple of months at this point. But overall, little money is being made as money sloshes back and forth based on the news of the day. Some select buying is fine, but we’re not flooring the accelerator until the bulls flex their muscle. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6.
This week’s list is a bit eclectic, with everything from energy to medicals to fintech and more. For our Top Pick, we’re going with an old school name where the underlying business looks great, as does last week’s earnings-related breakout. We’re OK entering here or (preferably) on dips.
This week’s list is a bit eclectic, with everything from energy to medicals to fintech and more. For our Top Pick, we’re going with an old school name where the underlying business looks great, as does last week’s earnings-related breakout. We’re OK entering here or (preferably) on dips.
To close out a tough July for stocks comes a potentially game-changing week, with the Fed revealing its latest intentions under newly minted chairman Kevin Warsh, the second-quarter GDP results due out, and more than half of the Mag. 7 reporting earnings. Will all of those newsy events help right the ship, particularly for tech stocks, which are going on two months of steady decline? We’ll see. But I’m quite confident the bull market is not over – not with earnings growth north of 30% so far this quarter. So today, we keep our foot on the growth pedal by adding a potentially revolutionary biotech company that’s caught the fancy of Cabot Growth Investor Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo for quite some time.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The AI and Semiconductor potential reckoning that has gripped Wall Street all month came to a head last week as the biggest names in the group finally stepped up to report earnings, and the market’s response was brutal as many of these strong earnings reports were aggressively sold into. Throw in worries in the Middle East and the Bond Market and it turned out to be a bad setup for stocks. For the week, the Nasdaq bore the brunt with a drop of roughly 2.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, the Dow eased 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.1%.
The AI and Semiconductor potential reckoning that has gripped Wall Street all month came to a head last week as the biggest names in the group finally stepped up to report earnings, and the market’s response was brutal as many of these strong earnings reports were aggressively sold into. Throw in worries in the Middle East and the Bond Market and it turned out to be a bad setup for stocks. For the week, the Nasdaq bore the brunt with a drop of roughly 2.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, the Dow eased 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.1%.
The AI and Semiconductor potential reckoning that has gripped Wall Street all month came to a head last week as the biggest names in the group finally stepped up to report earnings, and the market’s response was brutal as many of these strong earnings reports were aggressively sold into. Throw in worries in the Middle East and the Bond Market and it turned out to be a bad setup for stocks. For the week, the Nasdaq bore the brunt with a drop of roughly 2.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, the Dow eased 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.1%.
As growth investors, we continue to advise a cautious but flexible stance, as our neutral-to-negative growth-focused indicators and the weak action among many leading stocks has us holding lots of cash. That said, we’re really not that negative--most big-picture evidence is still positive, and our watch list is still full of stocks holding in normally while the market finds its way. We have no changes tonight, but are ready to pounce when our indicators give the go-ahead.
Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea we need to clean up a couple positions from the July expiration cycle. First off, FROG, BROS and SN expired for their full profits. However, SEDG and FLEX did not, leaving us with our stock positions which we will exit today.
To execute these trades, you need to:
Sell SEDG Stock
Sell FLEX Stock
Moving on …
To execute these trades, you need to:
Sell SEDG Stock
Sell FLEX Stock
Moving on …
The split tape condition we alluded to last week continues to hold sway, with a divergence of strength and weakness among the major sectors. While there are some encouraging signs among key groups—including financials, healthcare and cybersecurity—the primary evidence is still mixed, with cross-currents holding sway and some growth-y names looking for support. Accordingly, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at level 6.
This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off—or even benefit from—the latest headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid momentum and has excellent potential with a promising healthcare franchise.
This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off—or even benefit from—the latest headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid momentum and has excellent potential with a promising healthcare franchise.
Midsummer market malaise drags on, but perhaps that will change in the coming weeks now that second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. And while air has certainly come out of the balloon of the AI trade of late, money has mostly rotated into sectors and names that either didn’t participate in or sharply trailed the massive market run-up in April and May. That includes today’s new addition to the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio. It’s an undervalued healthcare name that I recommended to my Cabot Value Investor readers last month. So far, it’s looking like a smart buy-low choice, as the stock is starting to build momentum. And yet, shares remain undervalued – making it perfect for the current risk-off climate.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The semiconductor selloff went from a sector story to the market’s main event last week, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled into a bear market — down 20% from its recent highs — while investors continued to question whether the enormous sums being poured into AI infrastructure will earn their keep. Adding to the drama, oil surged nearly 10% as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire wobbled yet again. The encouraging news is that a cool June CPI report (inflation data) and strong results from the big banks kept money rotating — into energy, financials and consumer staples — rather than fleeing stocks altogether.
The semiconductor selloff went from a sector story to the market’s main event last week, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled into a bear market — down 20% from its recent highs — while investors continued to question whether the enormous sums being poured into AI infrastructure will earn their keep. Adding to the drama, oil surged nearly 10% as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire wobbled yet again. The encouraging news is that a cool June CPI report (inflation data) and strong results from the big banks kept money rotating — into energy, financials and consumer staples — rather than fleeing stocks altogether.
Updates
It’s not often that we discuss currencies in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, but given the persistent relative strength of the U.S. dollar right now, I think it’s imperative that we address it—mainly because of how it will likely impact our portfolio holdings going forward.
The top haven asset for the first half of 2026 wasn’t gold, U.S. Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen.
The top haven asset for the first half of 2026 wasn’t gold, U.S. Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen.
After spending much of the year leading the market higher, small caps have finally run into a little turbulence. Through midday today, the S&P 600 Index is down 1.8% from last Thursday’s close, roughly in line with the S&P 500’s 1.9% decline.
That said, it’s important to keep the recent pullback in perspective. Small caps remain the market’s clear leader in 2026, with the S&P 600 up 20.2% year to date versus an 8.1% gain for the S&P 500.
That said, it’s important to keep the recent pullback in perspective. Small caps remain the market’s clear leader in 2026, with the S&P 600 up 20.2% year to date versus an 8.1% gain for the S&P 500.
While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.
High-flying AI-related stocks are facing a high bar of performance. Even what normally would be considered staggering growth is met with a yawn. The backdrop of the Middle East conflict and almost $100 oil is not helpful.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
Alerts
In today’s Daily Alert, Global Investment Strategist Editor Benjamin Shepherd recommends picking up an un-loved, undervalued play on the metal molybdenum.
“As the effects of the recession have rippled through the global economy over the past five years or so, molybdenum prices have nosedived, falling by more than a third just...
“As the effects of the recession have rippled through the global economy over the past five years or so, molybdenum prices have nosedived, falling by more than a third just...
Today’s Daily Alert features a unique stock in the capital goods space from Benjamin Shepherd’s Wall Street.
“The global economic downturn hit heavy-equipment makers really hard. But now most of them are back on their feet and going strong. We especially like Westport, Conn.-based Terex Corp. (TEX $29 NYSE), whose recovery...
“The global economic downturn hit heavy-equipment makers really hard. But now most of them are back on their feet and going strong. We especially like Westport, Conn.-based Terex Corp. (TEX $29 NYSE), whose recovery...
Today’s new recommendation is a momentum stock from Cabot Top Ten Trader Editor Michael Cintolo. Wait for the stock to drop into his buy range before pulling the trigger.
“Long-term, we’re not big fans of GameStop Corp. (GME $31 NYSE); while the company has been doing its best to nose into...
“Long-term, we’re not big fans of GameStop Corp. (GME $31 NYSE); while the company has been doing its best to nose into...
SBUX was recommended by Blue Chip Growth at $52.41 in Dividend Digest issue 720, dated June 6, 2012.
“I want you to take profits today in Starbucks Corp. (SBUX $58 Nasdaq). My top priority is making sure that our Blue Chip Growth Buy List is populated by nothing less than the...
“I want you to take profits today in Starbucks Corp. (SBUX $58 Nasdaq). My top priority is making sure that our Blue Chip Growth Buy List is populated by nothing less than the...
Today The Bowser Report Editor Cindy Bowser recommends selling Majesco Entertainment Co. (COOL), which was recommended at $2.19 in Investment Digest issue 719, dated May 16, 2012.
“We only recommended COOL last April. It was $2.50/share at the time. When we recommended the company, it was reaching new grounds in video games sales due primarily to...
“We only recommended COOL last April. It was $2.50/share at the time. When we recommended the company, it was reaching new grounds in video games sales due primarily to...
Dan Sullivan and Steve Mais of The Chartist recommend this small-cap mutual fund.
“Vanguard Small Capitalization Index Fund Investor Shares (NAESX) The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of small-capitalization stocks. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance...
“Vanguard Small Capitalization Index Fund Investor Shares (NAESX) The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of small-capitalization stocks. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance...
Nathan Slaughter of The 100% Letter writes that industry tailwinds could boost this company’s sales almost 40% by 2016.
Delphi Automotive (NYSE: DLPH) is one of the nation’s largest automotive suppliers. If you drive a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry (or most other makes and models for that matter) odds are...
Delphi Automotive (NYSE: DLPH) is one of the nation’s largest automotive suppliers. If you drive a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry (or most other makes and models for that matter) odds are...
The Turnaround Letter Editor George Putnam likes the chances for this low-priced produce icon.
“Chiquita (CQB) has many of the features that we like to see in a turnaround candidate. First and foremost, it has a powerful brand. The Chiquita brand dominates the banana market, and it is probably the most...
“Chiquita (CQB) has many of the features that we like to see in a turnaround candidate. First and foremost, it has a powerful brand. The Chiquita brand dominates the banana market, and it is probably the most...
In today’s Daily Alert, Cabot Stock of the Month Editor Timothy Lutts sees big opportunity in this Chinese casino stock.
“Just as Las Vegas boomed years ago, Macau is booming today for the same reason; it’s the only place in China where gambling is legal! All the big names in the...
“Just as Las Vegas boomed years ago, Macau is booming today for the same reason; it’s the only place in China where gambling is legal! All the big names in the...
Today we have a thoroughly researched new recommendation of a small-cap biotech stock from The Medical Technology Stock Letter.
“While we are proud of the MTSL Portfolio performance YTD, most our Recommended Stocks currently trade above their respective buy limits. Unlike most Wall Street analysts, we find no need to continue...
“While we are proud of the MTSL Portfolio performance YTD, most our Recommended Stocks currently trade above their respective buy limits. Unlike most Wall Street analysts, we find no need to continue...
Today, Upside Editor Richard Moroney recommends a growth stock from the trucking industry.
“Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. (RRTS) is our third recommendation in the trucking sector -- a space we like for its solid fundamentals and growth outlook, partly reflecting an improving U.S. economy. The company offers freight delivery, logistics and...
“Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. (RRTS) is our third recommendation in the trucking sector -- a space we like for its solid fundamentals and growth outlook, partly reflecting an improving U.S. economy. The company offers freight delivery, logistics and...
Today The Investment Letter Editor David Jennett recommends a new play on economic growth in the U.S.
“I have been on a quest to reduce our cash position over the past few months and the continued good news about the economy has me thinking that this portfolio needs to carry more...
“I have been on a quest to reduce our cash position over the past few months and the continued good news about the economy has me thinking that this portfolio needs to carry more...
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.