Issues
As growth investors, we continue to advise a cautious but flexible stance, as our neutral-to-negative growth-focused indicators and the weak action among many leading stocks has us holding lots of cash. That said, we’re really not that negative--most big-picture evidence is still positive, and our watch list is still full of stocks holding in normally while the market finds its way. We have no changes tonight, but are ready to pounce when our indicators give the go-ahead.
Before we dive into this week’s covered call idea we need to clean up a couple positions from the July expiration cycle. First off, FROG, BROS and SN expired for their full profits. However, SEDG and FLEX did not, leaving us with our stock positions which we will exit today.
To execute these trades, you need to:
Sell SEDG Stock
Sell FLEX Stock
Moving on …
To execute these trades, you need to:
Sell SEDG Stock
Sell FLEX Stock
Moving on …
The split tape condition we alluded to last week continues to hold sway, with a divergence of strength and weakness among the major sectors. While there are some encouraging signs among key groups—including financials, healthcare and cybersecurity—the primary evidence is still mixed, with cross-currents holding sway and some growth-y names looking for support. Accordingly, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at level 6.
This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off—or even benefit from—the latest headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid momentum and has excellent potential with a promising healthcare franchise.
This week’s list has a fair number of stocks that should be able to shake off—or even benefit from—the latest headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing solid momentum and has excellent potential with a promising healthcare franchise.
Midsummer market malaise drags on, but perhaps that will change in the coming weeks now that second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. And while air has certainly come out of the balloon of the AI trade of late, money has mostly rotated into sectors and names that either didn’t participate in or sharply trailed the massive market run-up in April and May. That includes today’s new addition to the Cabot Stock of the Week portfolio. It’s an undervalued healthcare name that I recommended to my Cabot Value Investor readers last month. So far, it’s looking like a smart buy-low choice, as the stock is starting to build momentum. And yet, shares remain undervalued – making it perfect for the current risk-off climate.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The semiconductor selloff went from a sector story to the market’s main event last week, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled into a bear market — down 20% from its recent highs — while investors continued to question whether the enormous sums being poured into AI infrastructure will earn their keep. Adding to the drama, oil surged nearly 10% as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire wobbled yet again. The encouraging news is that a cool June CPI report (inflation data) and strong results from the big banks kept money rotating — into energy, financials and consumer staples — rather than fleeing stocks altogether.
The semiconductor selloff went from a sector story to the market’s main event last week, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled into a bear market — down 20% from its recent highs — while investors continued to question whether the enormous sums being poured into AI infrastructure will earn their keep. Adding to the drama, oil surged nearly 10% as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire wobbled yet again. The encouraging news is that a cool June CPI report (inflation data) and strong results from the big banks kept money rotating — into energy, financials and consumer staples — rather than fleeing stocks altogether.
The semiconductor selloff went from a sector story to the market’s main event last week, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled into a bear market — down 20% from its recent highs — while investors continued to question whether the enormous sums being poured into AI infrastructure will earn their keep. Adding to the drama, oil surged nearly 10% as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire wobbled yet again. The encouraging news is that a cool June CPI report (inflation data) and strong results from the big banks kept money rotating — into energy, financials and consumer staples — rather than fleeing stocks altogether.
As I expected, SpaceX (SPCX) shares have fallen below their 135 IPO price, marking a significant decline from their initial highs above 200.
Earnings growth has accounted for more than 70% of the S&P 500’s total return since the 1990s, with the rest coming from dividends and changes in valuation. The five largest banks in the United States this week posted a combined $49 billion in profit for the last quarter, shattering records amidst increased investment in AI and a surge in related deals.
Earnings growth has accounted for more than 70% of the S&P 500’s total return since the 1990s, with the rest coming from dividends and changes in valuation. The five largest banks in the United States this week posted a combined $49 billion in profit for the last quarter, shattering records amidst increased investment in AI and a surge in related deals.
The July Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities focuses on three companies helping power some of today’s most important industrial growth markets – from aerospace and nuclear energy to infrastructure and specialty materials.
These businesses are benefiting from powerful long-term demand trends, yet all three remain far less followed than many of today’s market favorites. Recent pullbacks toward key moving averages have created attractive entry points as their growth stories continue to unfold.
All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
These businesses are benefiting from powerful long-term demand trends, yet all three remain far less followed than many of today’s market favorites. Recent pullbacks toward key moving averages have created attractive entry points as their growth stories continue to unfold.
All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
Last week was all about rotation, as money whipped between sectors seemingly every session. Semiconductors started the week in a hole — extending their early-July selloff after disappointing results from Samsung — before the AI trade came roaring back Thursday and Friday, capped by SK Hynix (SKHYV) pulling off the largest-ever U.S. IPO by a foreign company and META ripping 15% higher on the week. Meanwhile, energy quietly led the sector scoreboard as oil climbed, financials firmed ahead of this week’s bank earnings, and small caps — the stars of recent weeks — took a well-earned breather.
First off, a heads up: I’m running a webinar this Wednesday, July 15, at 1 p.m. ET, where I’ll go into detail about what I’m seeing in the market, what I’m thinking big picture, what would change my mind, a few stocks I think will help lead in the second half of the year. You can sign up for free at cabotwealth.com/webinars (it’s the first one listed).
As for the market, the current environment remains tricky and challenging, with many leaders are either under pressure or getting choppy. The good news is that the fresher leadership areas are still acting well … though even there things are getting whippy. Big picture, we do remain optimistic, but with little progress being made by risk-on areas, we’re content to stay relatively close to shore. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.
Interestingly, this week’s list does have a lot of growth titles, many of which have leveled off reasonably for a few weeks following big runs. Our Top Pick is dancing to its own bullish drummer, with a non-AI story that has the stock perched near new highs. Try to buy on dips.
As for the market, the current environment remains tricky and challenging, with many leaders are either under pressure or getting choppy. The good news is that the fresher leadership areas are still acting well … though even there things are getting whippy. Big picture, we do remain optimistic, but with little progress being made by risk-on areas, we’re content to stay relatively close to shore. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.
Interestingly, this week’s list does have a lot of growth titles, many of which have leveled off reasonably for a few weeks following big runs. Our Top Pick is dancing to its own bullish drummer, with a non-AI story that has the stock perched near new highs. Try to buy on dips.
A busy week of earnings and inflation reports should help stocks pick a lane after a month of summer stagnation. Recent earnings seasons have helped get stocks going, and with 23.6% EPS growth expected in the second quarter, this time could be similar … as long as this week’s inflation prints (CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday) don’t spoil the party before it even gets going.
For now, the market is healthy, so it’s a good time to take a swing on a down-and-out Latin American e-commerce giant that is due for a bounce-back. In fact, insiders are betting on one, which is why the stock got the attention of Michael Brush, who recommended it to his Cabot Insider Edge audience recently.
Details inside.
For now, the market is healthy, so it’s a good time to take a swing on a down-and-out Latin American e-commerce giant that is due for a bounce-back. In fact, insiders are betting on one, which is why the stock got the attention of Michael Brush, who recommended it to his Cabot Insider Edge audience recently.
Details inside.
Updates
It’s not often that we discuss currencies in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, but given the persistent relative strength of the U.S. dollar right now, I think it’s imperative that we address it—mainly because of how it will likely impact our portfolio holdings going forward.
The top haven asset for the first half of 2026 wasn’t gold, U.S. Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen.
The top haven asset for the first half of 2026 wasn’t gold, U.S. Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen.
After spending much of the year leading the market higher, small caps have finally run into a little turbulence. Through midday today, the S&P 600 Index is down 1.8% from last Thursday’s close, roughly in line with the S&P 500’s 1.9% decline.
That said, it’s important to keep the recent pullback in perspective. Small caps remain the market’s clear leader in 2026, with the S&P 600 up 20.2% year to date versus an 8.1% gain for the S&P 500.
That said, it’s important to keep the recent pullback in perspective. Small caps remain the market’s clear leader in 2026, with the S&P 600 up 20.2% year to date versus an 8.1% gain for the S&P 500.
While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.
High-flying AI-related stocks are facing a high bar of performance. Even what normally would be considered staggering growth is met with a yawn. The backdrop of the Middle East conflict and almost $100 oil is not helpful.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
Alerts
This biotech just turned in stellar earnings and boosted its guidance for 2015.
SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SCLN)
from Weiss Stock Ratings Heat Maps
SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SCLN, Weiss Ratings B+) is a specialty pharmaceutical company that provides therapies for the treatment of oncology, infectious diseases and cardiovascular disorders, primarily in the People’s Republic...
SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SCLN)
from Weiss Stock Ratings Heat Maps
SciClone Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SCLN, Weiss Ratings B+) is a specialty pharmaceutical company that provides therapies for the treatment of oncology, infectious diseases and cardiovascular disorders, primarily in the People’s Republic...
This diversified fund of funds has gained 3.71% year-to-date.
Vanguard Diversified Equity Inv (VDEQX)
from The No-Load Fund Investor
The Vanguard Diversified Equity fund (VDEQX) has $1.5 billion in assets and invests in actively managed Vanguard funds. It uses U.S. equity funds only—no fixed income or international equity offerings. So, it’s a relatively...
Vanguard Diversified Equity Inv (VDEQX)
from The No-Load Fund Investor
The Vanguard Diversified Equity fund (VDEQX) has $1.5 billion in assets and invests in actively managed Vanguard funds. It uses U.S. equity funds only—no fixed income or international equity offerings. So, it’s a relatively...
This software provider beat estimates by $0.14 last quarter, and analysts forecast a double-digit growth rate.
SYNNEX (SNX)
from Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor
SYNNEX (SNX; Max Buy Price 77.70) offers business process retail and wholesale services to resellers, retailers, software publishers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the U.S., Japan and internationally.
SYNNEX...
SYNNEX (SNX)
from Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor
SYNNEX (SNX; Max Buy Price 77.70) offers business process retail and wholesale services to resellers, retailers, software publishers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the U.S., Japan and internationally.
SYNNEX...
These two solar companies are joining up to form a new type of solar power venture, leading to upgraded price targets for each stock.
SunPower (SPWR) and First Solar (FSLR)
from Tech Trend Trader
The economic justification for solar power is growing all on its own as a surge of capacity and production,...
SunPower (SPWR) and First Solar (FSLR)
from Tech Trend Trader
The economic justification for solar power is growing all on its own as a surge of capacity and production,...
This global construction supplier is benefiting from worldwide economic improvement and beat last quarter’s analysts’ estimates by a whopping $0.17 per share.
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
from Cabot Market Letter
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)—Construction materials and aggregates (cement mix, asphalt, etc.) aren’t usually products that attract growth investors, but we think there are...
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
from Cabot Market Letter
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)—Construction materials and aggregates (cement mix, asphalt, etc.) aren’t usually products that attract growth investors, but we think there are...
This business process outsourcing (BPO) company beat Wall Street’s estimates on both revenues and earnings, in the last quarter. The company’s management said for 2015, “We expect revenues to be in the range of $2.46 to $2.50 billion. We expect 2015 adjusted operating income margins to be approximately 15.0%.”
Genpact Limited...
Genpact Limited...
As I mentioned in my blog post last week, here is an update on the PCYC/ABBV merger. Bottom line recommendation: hold onto your ABBV stock, post-merger.
Hold Pharmacyclics (PCYC)
from The Medical Technology Stock Letter
Updated from Investment Digest 759, July 23, 2014 Mid-Year Top Picks issue
We may have reached a...
Hold Pharmacyclics (PCYC)
from The Medical Technology Stock Letter
Updated from Investment Digest 759, July 23, 2014 Mid-Year Top Picks issue
We may have reached a...
This infrastructure company reported quarterly earnings of $0.71, handily beating the consensus estimate of $0.56.
AECOM Technology (ACM)
from PAD System Report
AECOM Technology is an “infrastructure” play. This word is one that makes most economists salivate. Infrastructure refers to roads, bridges, dams, ports, airports, and water and power distribution. Well-functioning infrastructure underlies...
AECOM Technology (ACM)
from PAD System Report
AECOM Technology is an “infrastructure” play. This word is one that makes most economists salivate. Infrastructure refers to roads, bridges, dams, ports, airports, and water and power distribution. Well-functioning infrastructure underlies...
This global fund is rated five stars by Morningstar.
Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
from Bob Carlson’s Retirement Watch
I recommend adding Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX), a global stock fund that should benefit if the European Central Bank and other global central banks continue their recent expansive monetary policies.
The management team has...
Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
from Bob Carlson’s Retirement Watch
I recommend adding Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX), a global stock fund that should benefit if the European Central Bank and other global central banks continue their recent expansive monetary policies.
The management team has...
This semiconductor company trounced estimates last quarter, earning $0.11 per share, compared to analysts’ estimates of $0.06. Our second company disappointed with earnings, prompting a sell recommendation.
Exar Corporation (EXAR)
from The Oberweis Report
Exar Corporation (EXAR) designs, develops and markets high performance analog mixed-signal integrated circuits and advanced sub-system solutions for the...
Exar Corporation (EXAR)
from The Oberweis Report
Exar Corporation (EXAR) designs, develops and markets high performance analog mixed-signal integrated circuits and advanced sub-system solutions for the...
Sell: Inventure Foods (SNAK)
Updated from Investment Digest 758, June 18, 2014
from The Oberweis Report
Inventure Foods (SNAK) is being deleted after disappointing earnings reports and outlooks in its latest reported quarter.
Jim Oberweis, CFA, The Oberweis Report, www.oberweisreport.com, 800-323-6166, March 2015
...
Updated from Investment Digest 758, June 18, 2014
from The Oberweis Report
Inventure Foods (SNAK) is being deleted after disappointing earnings reports and outlooks in its latest reported quarter.
Jim Oberweis, CFA, The Oberweis Report, www.oberweisreport.com, 800-323-6166, March 2015
...
This medical device company just announced a deal to pay $1.6 billion for the men’s health and prostate health business of Endo International. Our contributor also updates his recommendation for a natural gas mutual fund that is still a “buy” on his list.
Boston Scientific (BSX)
from Sound Advice
Boston Scientific (BSX) is...
Boston Scientific (BSX)
from Sound Advice
Boston Scientific (BSX) is...
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.