Issues
From July 7 through July 17, we saw a harrowing decline among individual stocks and many major indexes. There was enough damage to suggest selling off a couple of your weaker holdings and possibly taking partial profits in a couple of winners. However, the market found some support last Friday, few stocks have broken down and the indexes have generally held support (though small-cap indexes look sick). Because of that, we remain overall bullish—you shouldn’t push the envelope here, but holding your best performers and keeping your eyes open for new leaders (possibly via earnings gaps) makes sense.
This week’s list surprised us (in a good way) by including a bunch of top-notch growth stories. Our Top Pick this week is Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS), a turnaround in the chip sector with huge projected growth. The stock just enjoyed a huge-volume, earnings-induced surge.
This week’s list surprised us (in a good way) by including a bunch of top-notch growth stories. Our Top Pick this week is Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS), a turnaround in the chip sector with huge projected growth. The stock just enjoyed a huge-volume, earnings-induced surge.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherford International plc (WFT) | 0.00 | ||
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) | 230.36 | ||
| Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) | 14.25 | ||
| Newfield Exploration (NFX) | 0.00 | ||
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | 63.82 | ||
| Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) | 0.00 | ||
| Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) | 0.00 | ||
| Blackstone Group (BX) | 49.12 | ||
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | 0.00 | ||
| Akorn (AKRX) | 0.00 |
Last week’s post-holiday action was suspicious and a bit abnormal; many stocks gave up two or three weeks of gains in just a day or two, and on big volume to boot. That said, very few stocks actually broke down (many fell down to their 50-day moving averages before bouncing), and the major indexes are in good shape, so we remain bullish. But our main thought is that, if last week was just a typical bull market shakeout (possibly some pre-earnings season jitters), most stocks should hold last week’s lows and resume their major uptrends. But in case the selling intensifies, you should have some stops in place for your weaker holdings.
The good news is we’re still seeing many good looking charts, including most of this week’s list. Our Top Pick is Adobe (ADBE), a software giant that’s enjoying new growth from its new focus on the cloud.
The good news is we’re still seeing many good looking charts, including most of this week’s list. Our Top Pick is Adobe (ADBE), a software giant that’s enjoying new growth from its new focus on the cloud.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) | 154.94 | ||
| Synaptics (SYNA) | 0.00 | ||
| SunEdison (SUNE) | 0.00 | ||
| KLA Corp. (KLAC) | 158.80 | ||
| Health Net (HNT) | 0.00 | ||
| Barrick Gold (GOLD) | 27.20 | ||
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | 13.78 | ||
| Concho Resources (CXO) | 0.00 | ||
| Bitauto Holdings (BITA) | 0.00 | ||
| Adobe Inc. (ADBE) | 315.23 |
The market and many leading stocks finally hit some resistance today, but we can’t say that’s too surprising—the market has had a great run in recent weeks, there hasn’t been any real dip since mid-May and earnings season is just around the corner. We’re not shrugging off today’s selloff; if the evidence rapidly deteriorates, we’ll change our tune. And as we’ve written lately, booking partial profits in some winners makes sense ahead of earnings season. But just as one big day off the bottom doesn’t signify a new uptrend, we can’t say one bad day has changed the overall uptrend.
This week’s list is as growth-oriented as we’ve seen it in a long time, and it includes a few stocks that only recently broke out of bases. Our Top Pick is Baidu (BIDU), a blue-chip Chinese stock that has been acting very well in recent weeks. Earnings are due out July 24, so try to buy on dips.
This week’s list is as growth-oriented as we’ve seen it in a long time, and it includes a few stocks that only recently broke out of bases. Our Top Pick is Baidu (BIDU), a blue-chip Chinese stock that has been acting very well in recent weeks. Earnings are due out July 24, so try to buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 58.com (WUBA) | 0.00 | ||
| Nabors Industries (NBR) | 0.00 | ||
| Molina Healthcare (MOH) | 0.00 | ||
| Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) | 0.00 | ||
| HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) | 0.00 | ||
| Gilead Sciences (GILD) | 75.10 | ||
| Bitauto Holdings (BITA) | 0.00 | ||
| Baidu (BIDU) | 0.00 | ||
| Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) | 0.00 | ||
| Arista Networks (ANET) | 0.00 |
The market remains in full bull mode, despite the “shocking” (to some) news that the U.S. economy contracted by 2.9% in the first quarter. We’re not easily shocked, and we know that the message of the market is what matters, so we continue to recommend that you invest heavily in leading stocks, particularly those that present attractive entry points. Happily, there are plenty to choose from these days, and this week’s issue offers a fine variety, from energy to medical to retail to restaurants to automobiles.
Our favorite stock in today’s crop is Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), a gold miner that has solid growth prospects and a great technical set-up. While the big jump in gold stocks two weeks ago got a lot of attention, Agnico’s capable management has made a lot of moves that augur well for the long term.
Our favorite stock in today’s crop is Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), a gold miner that has solid growth prospects and a great technical set-up. While the big jump in gold stocks two weeks ago got a lot of attention, Agnico’s capable management has made a lot of moves that augur well for the long term.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) | 818.87 | ||
| Sanchez Energy (SN) | 0.00 | ||
| Schlumberger (SLB) | 0.00 | ||
| SolarCity (SCTY) | 0.00 | ||
| KapStone Paper (KS) | 0.00 | ||
| JD.com (JD) | 39.58 | ||
| InterMune (ITMN) | 0.00 | ||
| Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) | 0.00 | ||
| Allegheny Technologies (ATI) | 27.78 | ||
| Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) | 79.05 |
The market remains in good shape, with the major indexes hitting slightly higher highs and most stocks acting well. Granted, many growth stocks have been consolidating their strong mid-May to early-June advances, but we’re actually encouraged by that—despite strong run-ups back to (or somewhat above) their springtime highs, the sellers haven’t been able to make any headway. Sure, that could always change, but right now there’s no question that selling pressures are light and the buyers remain in control. Hence, it’s best to remain bullish and pick up shares of new leaders either on powerful breakouts or on dips toward support.
This week’s list has more solid growth ideas than we’ve seen in many weeks. Our favorite idea is GasLog (GLOG), which has gotten a boost from international events, but whose short- and long-term growth story is compelling. Last week, the stock blasted off on its heaviest volume ever.
This week’s list has more solid growth ideas than we’ve seen in many weeks. Our favorite idea is GasLog (GLOG), which has gotten a boost from international events, but whose short- and long-term growth story is compelling. Last week, the stock blasted off on its heaviest volume ever.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| TripAdvisor (TRIP) | 55.14 | ||
| SunPower (SPWR) | 12.26 | ||
| Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) | 129.66 | ||
| Palo Alto Networks (PANW) | 236.92 | ||
| Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) | 146.30 | ||
| GasLog (GLOG) | 21.39 | ||
| Electronic Arts (EA) | 0.00 | ||
| Celgene (CELG) | 0.00 | ||
| Arris Group (ARRS) | 0.00 | ||
| Apple (AAPL) | 248.94 |
After a few weeks of solid action that eased most worries, the latest shenanigans in Iraq have reminded investors that the market is a two-way street. Not that the damage has been severe—stocks have generally eased normally since Iraq grabbed the headlines last Thursday—but we’re viewing this as the rally’s first test. If dips in the indexes and individual stocks come on generally tame volume and find support, it will be highly bullish. If not … well, we’ll deal with that if we see it. Right now, the evidence remains clearly bullish, and while the bulls aren’t running wild, many stocks are making solid progress.
This week’s list has a bunch of great stories, as well as a nice mix of newer and older names. Our Top Pick is Restoration Hardware (RH), which is going about business in a unique way, leading to outstanding results. The stock is getting going after a multi-month rest.
This week’s list has a bunch of great stories, as well as a nice mix of newer and older names. Our Top Pick is Restoration Hardware (RH), which is going about business in a unique way, leading to outstanding results. The stock is getting going after a multi-month rest.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| RH Inc. (RH) | 252.93 | ||
| VeriFone Systems, Inc. (PAY) | 0.00 | ||
| Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) | 423.92 | ||
| Health Net (HNT) | 0.00 | ||
| GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT) | 0.00 | ||
| Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) | 0.00 | ||
| Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) | 0.00 | ||
| Con-way (CNW) | 0.00 | ||
| Charter Communications (CHTR) | 0.00 | ||
| Baidu (BIDU) | 0.00 |
There remain a few warts on the market’s current rally, including some meaningful divergences (the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have yet to reach new highs like some of the broader big-cap indexes) and a lack of decisive breakouts from big-cap leaders (most are still working on launching pads). But the evidence is rarely going to line up perfectly; the fact is that during the past few weeks, more and more stocks have been acting well as selling pressures ease. Now’s a time to grow gradually more optimistic as the stocks you own and follow improve.
This week’s list includes one of those classic, big-cap breakouts that we alluded to above. Top Pick Applied Materials (AMAT) is in the process of completing a major acquisition that should boost its market dominance in a big way, and the stock has exploded out of a nice consolidation on very big volume.
This week’s list includes one of those classic, big-cap breakouts that we alluded to above. Top Pick Applied Materials (AMAT) is in the process of completing a major acquisition that should boost its market dominance in a big way, and the stock has exploded out of a nice consolidation on very big volume.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) | 154.94 | ||
| Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) | 0.00 | ||
| MeadWestvaco (MWV) | 0.00 | ||
| Lannett Company (LCI) | 0.00 | ||
| Illumina Inc. (ILMN) | 289.74 | ||
| Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) | 24.03 | ||
| Consol Energy Inc. (CNX) | 0.00 | ||
| Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) | 0.00 | ||
| Arris Group (ARRS) | 0.00 | ||
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | 0.00 |
After two and a half months of a choppy-to-down environment, the bulls have done enough good things to turn the intermediate-term trend back up. And that means our Market Monitor is back in bullish territory and you should adopt a more positive market outlook. You shouldn’t buy hand over fist, though—it’s best to pick up shares of some strong, resilient stocks (preferably newer names most investors haven’t heard of) … and then watch closely to see if the market can hold (and build on) its gains in the days and weeks ahead. If it does, you can look to extend your line.
This week’s list again contains an array of stocks from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is Cavium (CAVM), which looks like a new leader in the still-strong chip sector. It’s very volatile, so handle it with care, but we think you can start a position around here.
This week’s list again contains an array of stocks from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is Cavium (CAVM), which looks like a new leader in the still-strong chip sector. It’s very volatile, so handle it with care, but we think you can start a position around here.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| TripAdvisor (TRIP) | 55.14 | ||
| T-Mobile US (TMUS) | 0.00 | ||
| Synaptics (SYNA) | 0.00 | ||
| Sanchez Energy (SN) | 0.00 | ||
| Palo Alto Networks (PANW) | 236.92 | ||
| Nabors Industries (NBR) | 0.00 | ||
| Molina Healthcare (MOH) | 0.00 | ||
| Cavium (CAVM) | 0.00 | ||
| Baker Hughes (BHI) | 0.00 | ||
| Air Lease (AL) | 0.00 |
During the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen the major indexes push higher (including new all-time highs from the S&P 500), we’ve seen some growth stocks get off their duffs and we’ve seen a gradual improvement in stocks and sectors hitting new highs. In other words, the evidence has improved, and while we would prefer to see some real buying power (volume has been whisper-quiet for the most part), we’re tilting our Market Monitor a bit toward the bullish side. Bottom line: It’s OK to put some more money to work here, and then see if stocks can build on their recent gains.
This week’s list has a broad array of solid stories from a variety of industries. Our favorite is BitAuto (BITA), a great (and easy to understand) Chinese growth story that is quickly rounding out its launching pad.
This week’s list has a broad array of solid stories from a variety of industries. Our favorite is BitAuto (BITA), a great (and easy to understand) Chinese growth story that is quickly rounding out its launching pad.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Stillwater Mining (SWC) | 0.00 | ||
| Skechers (SKX) | 0.00 | ||
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) | 0.00 | ||
| Kate Spade & Company (KATE) | 0.00 | ||
| ICICI Bank (IBN) | 0.00 | ||
| Electronic Arts (EA) | 0.00 | ||
| Dillard’s (DDS) | 0.00 | ||
| Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP) | 34.94 | ||
| Bitauto Holdings (BITA) | 0.00 | ||
| American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) | 0.00 |
The market continues to chop around, with forays into new-high ground inviting plenty of sellers and sharp dips quickly attracting bargain-hunting buyers. We are seeing more set-ups out there, which is a good sign—if the market does kick into gear, there should be some solid leadership. However, until then, this is about as neutral and choppy an environment as we can remember. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take any action (this isn’t 2008!), but it’s best to wait for the market to show some bullish action before getting heavily invested. Patience and cash are your allies today.
This week’s list is the first in a while that has a growth tilt to it; there are still some cheap, stable-type stocks, but also some real potential leaders of the next advance. Our favorite is Arris Group (ARRS), which has excellent growth prospects, a huge backlog and a nice-looking launching pad.
This week’s list is the first in a while that has a growth tilt to it; there are still some cheap, stable-type stocks, but also some real potential leaders of the next advance. Our favorite is Arris Group (ARRS), which has excellent growth prospects, a huge backlog and a nice-looking launching pad.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) | 0.00 | ||
| Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) | 14.25 | ||
| Trinity Industries (TRN) | 0.00 | ||
| Rice Energy (RICE) | 0.00 | ||
| Pacira Biosiences (PCRX) | 54.85 | ||
| InterMune (ITMN) | 0.00 | ||
| Gilead Sciences (GILD) | 75.10 | ||
| CBRE Group (CBG) | 0.00 | ||
| Arris Group (ARRS) | 0.00 | ||
| Apple (AAPL) | 248.94 |
Updates
It’s not often that we discuss currencies in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, but given the persistent relative strength of the U.S. dollar right now, I think it’s imperative that we address it—mainly because of how it will likely impact our portfolio holdings going forward.
The top haven asset for the first half of 2026 wasn’t gold, U.S. Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen.
The top haven asset for the first half of 2026 wasn’t gold, U.S. Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen.
After spending much of the year leading the market higher, small caps have finally run into a little turbulence. Through midday today, the S&P 600 Index is down 1.8% from last Thursday’s close, roughly in line with the S&P 500’s 1.9% decline.
That said, it’s important to keep the recent pullback in perspective. Small caps remain the market’s clear leader in 2026, with the S&P 600 up 20.2% year to date versus an 8.1% gain for the S&P 500.
That said, it’s important to keep the recent pullback in perspective. Small caps remain the market’s clear leader in 2026, with the S&P 600 up 20.2% year to date versus an 8.1% gain for the S&P 500.
While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.
High-flying AI-related stocks are facing a high bar of performance. Even what normally would be considered staggering growth is met with a yawn. The backdrop of the Middle East conflict and almost $100 oil is not helpful.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 57% this year, even after a sharp correction. This is basically a macro trade, and there are few industries as cyclical, or as capital-intensive, as semiconductor manufacturing.
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
Alerts
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.