Last week was a decent one for the market, though much of the strength was concentrated in defensive-type sectors (consumer durables, health care, etc.), and today, as the second quarter began, the sellers re-appeared. As we wrote last week, the overall trend remains up, so we’ll leave our Market Monitor in bullish territory, but there are a few yellow flags out there that could have an effect. All told, we see a good number of decent set-ups, but we are also seeing more stocks stagnate and some fall by the wayside. Hold your best performers and do some selected buying, but don’t hesitate to dump your losers and laggards and hold a little cash at this point.

This week’s list does have a bunch of high-quality names with strong charts, something that’s usually a good sign for the market. Our favorite of the group is Trinity Industries (TRN), the leading railcar maker that’s part of the still-strong transportation group. We think it’s a good buy around here or on further weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Trinity Industries (TRN)	0.00	44-45.5	41-42
Proto Labs (PRLB)	0.00	46.5-49	43-44
Pandora Media Inc. (P)	0.00	13.2-13.7	12-12.5
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)	0.00	168-174	155-158
Kansas City Southern (KSU)	176.54	105-110	99-100
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)	0.00	65-67.5	59.5-60.5
CBRE Group (CBG)	0.00	23.5-24.5	21.5-22.5
Biogen (BIIB)	0.00	185-190	160-165
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)	0.00	37-39	34-35
Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI)	0.00	13.5-14.5	12.8-13.3

The trend is still up, and we’re leaving our Market Monitor in bullish territory because the odds continue to favor higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. However, for the first time this year, we are starting to see a few chinks in the armor—volume is picking up a bit on the down days, growth stocks are lagging while some defensive-type sectors are pushing ahead, and we’re seeing some choppy up-and-down action. As we wrote in Friday’s update, none of these are “get out now” signs, but lightening up or selling your laggards makes sense. And, going ahead, should the market get rougher, you’ll find added value from our new Suggested Stop-Loss levels, which we include on every recommendation.

This week’s list has an encouragingly strong group of quality growth stories and charts. Our favorite of the week is RockTenn (RKT), a containerboard company that few investors are giddy about. But earnings growth will be big going ahead, and the stock is closing in on a good buy point.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
United Continental Holdings (UAL)	96.76	30.5-31.5	27.5-28.5
Tenet Healthcare (THC)	0.00	44.5-46	40.5-41.5
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	36-38	33-35
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	41-43	38.5-39.5
Range Resources (RRC)	0.00	78-81	72-73
Rockwood Holdings (ROC)	0.00	63-65	57-59
RockTenn (RKT)	0.00	85-87.5	82.5-83
Meritage Homes (MTH)	102.20	45-47	41-42
FleetCor Technologies (FLT)	0.00	72-75	65-67
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY)	0.00	30-32	27-28

Trouble usually comes from where investors least expect it, and it’s fair to say that Cyprus was not on most radar screens before this weekend. The much-publicized shock brought up fears of a 2008-style bank run, but it’s important to keep your feet on the ground and stick with the evidence. Right now, the trend is still up, and most stocks are in good shape; we did see some churning among the most extended stocks last week, so they might need a break, but we haven’t seen much abnormal action that occurs when the sellers take control. If that changes, we’ll let you know, but right here we’re keeping our Market Monitor in bullish territory—further short-term weakness could be in store, but the odds continue to favor higher prices in the weeks ahead.

This week’s list has a bunch of charts that look very strong and most are not overly extended to the upside. Our top pick is from the energy patch—Tesoro (TSO) is part of the very strong refining group, and the stock has eased back to support after a powerful run in February. We think it’s a good buy around here.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Tesoro (TSO)	0.00	54-56	-
Parexel Corp. (PRXL)	0.00	36-38	-
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	35-36	-
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	176-190	-
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF)	0.00	21-22.5	-
Delta Air Lines (DAL)	54.28	14.5-15.5	-
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)	0.00	63-66	-
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	109-113	-
Citigroup Inc. (C)	0.00	44-46	-
Aruba Networks (ARUN)	0.00	24.5-26	-

The most bullish thing a market can do is go up, and that’s what this market continues to do, with the Dow and most other major indexes at (or close to) all-time highs. Now, we saw the usual trumpeting of the new high in the Dow last week by the media, and that often coincides with some choppiness in the market; then again, there’s a distinct lack of greed, with most investors still seeking safety and avoiding risk. Bottom line, we’re keeping our Market Monitor bullish, and while a pullback is always possible, you should be looking to buy as opportunities arise.

This week’s list has a few newer names (to us) from a variety of industries, including REITs, autos, housing and media. But our favorite of the week is Workday (WDAY) a recent IPO that just broke out of a beautiful base, has rapid sales growth and is operating in a huge market.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Workday (WDAY)	194.88	59-62.5	-
Uni-Pixel (UNXL)	0.00	21-24	-
Time Warner (TWX)	0.00	54-56.5	-
PBF Energy (PBF)	38.93	36.5-38	-
Medical Properties Trust (MPW)	0.00	14.3-14.9	-
The GEO Group (GEO)	0.00	34.5-35.5	-
Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)	81.02	34-35.5	-
Delphi Automotive (DLPH)	0.00	41.5-43.5	-
Discovery, Inc. (DISCA)	0.00	74-76	-
AOL, Inc. (AOL)	0.00	35.5-37	-

Volatility has increased and minor divergences are beginning to appear, but the market’s major trend remains clearly up. Thus our Market Monitor remains in bullish territory, and we continue to advise heavy participation. However, with some small cracks beginning to appear, we remind you that cutting losses short is critical, and that buying smart—ideally on high-potential set-ups—is the best way to avoid having to take a quick loss.

Among sectors that are attractive today, we find quite a few in the medical industry, where the Affordable Care Act is beginning to affect the marketplace; in addition to drug companies, health care REITs are strong! Energy remains robust. Retail is very healthy. And numerous Internet-centric firms are thriving, from the leading consumer photography site, to the leading business networking and employment site to a leading provider of fuel cards and related services for commercial vehicle fleets. Our Editor’s Choice today, though, is benefiting from the wholesale shift in mortgage servicing from big banks to smaller, specialized companies. It’s not Nationstar’s (NSM) first appearance here, and it’s probably not the last.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zillow (Z)	76.64	44-46	-
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	41.5-43	-
Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)	0.00	26.5-27.5	-
Nationstar Mortgage (NSM)	0.00	37.5-40.5	-
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)	0.00	158-167	-
FleetCor Technologies (FLT)	0.00	67-70	-
Five Below (FIVE)	134.58	39.5-41	-
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)	0.00	56-58	-
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)	0.00	32-34	-
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY)	0.00	28-31	-

After a great three-month advance, last week’s big distribution on Wednesday and Thursday is a shot across the bow; more than likely we’ve seen some type of short-term peak, and experience tells us to expect some follow-on selling in the near-term (we saw some today after a big upmove at the open). However, when looking at the intermediate-term, the trend remains up, which is why we’re keeping our Market Monitor in bullish territory. Thus, it’s prudent to cut back on your losers and laggards and hold a little cash, but you should stick with your best performers. And, when it comes to new buying, you can be a bit more discerning, buying on weakness and waiting for your pitch.

This week’s list, frankly, has more great-looking charts than we expected to see, albeit from some less-sexy sectors. Our favorite of the week is AECOM Technology (ACM), a good-sized construction firm that’s shown outstanding accumulation. Look to get in on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
State Street (STT)	79.42	54-56	-
RockTenn (RKT)	0.00	82-85	-
Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH)	0.00	28.5-30	-
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF)	0.00	19-20	-
Kansas City Southern (KSU)	176.54	95-97	-
Computer Sciences (CSC)	0.00	45-47	-
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)	0.00	56-58	-
BlackRock (BLK)	0.00	230-240	-
Aruba Networks (ARUN)	0.00	23.5-25	-
Aecom Technology (ACM)	0.00	28.5-30	-

Last week was a quiet one for the major indexes, but many individual stocks had big moves ... mostly on the upside. We don’t have much to add from our last few commentaries—our Market Monitor remains bullish, and most stocks and sectors are in good shape, so you should be thinking positively and sticking to the bullish game plan. That said, be sure to keep your feet on the ground and be prepared for a pickup in volatility; we’re not predicting anything, but it’s been three months since the market low and seven weeks of nearly straight-up action, so it only makes sense to be prepared for some hiccups sooner or later.

One very hopeful event of the past two weeks is that many growth stocks, which had been lagging the market, are beginning to perk up. Our favorite this week is NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), a good-sized chip stock with a few irons in the fire and a stock that recently lifted off from a huge base. Try to buy on weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Qihoo 360 (QIHU)	0.00	31-32.5	-
Oasis Petroleum (OAS)	12.57	36-38	-
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)	0.00	30.5-32	-
Nationstar Mortgage (NSM)	0.00	38-40.5	-
Medicines Company (MDCO)	56.98	29-30.5	-
Masco (MAS)	0.00	18.5-19.5	-
Lazard (LAZ)	0.00	35-38	-
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	61-64	-
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ)	0.00	18-19.5	-
First Solar (FSLR)	83.74	32-34	-

Not much changed with the market’s stance last week—the overall uptrend remains in fine shape, though we’re seeing the usual under-the-surface potholes and choppiness (as well as some upside explosions) during earnings season. All told, our advice remains the same: remain bullish and give most of your best performers a chance to run, and when it comes to new buying, it will probably pay to get shares during temporary weakness ... unless you see a super-powerful earnings gap.
We’re seeing plenty of both during the past couple of weeks (normal bouts of weakness, as well as huge earnings gaps), which is encouraging. This week’s list has many names that can help lead the market’s uptrend, and our favorite this week might prove to the be the #1 leader among growth stocks. It’s LinkedIn (LNKD), which soared after earnings last Friday and is looking like the flag-bearer of this bull move.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Team Health Holdings (TMH)	0.00	33.5-35	-
Seattle Genetics (SGEN)	150.85	28.5-30	-
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	39-41.5	-
Phillips 66 (PSX)	0.00	60-63	-
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	37-39	-
Melco Crown (MPEL)	0.00	19.5-20.5	-
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)	0.00	145-155	-
Cheniere Energy (LNG)	63.82	20-21.5	-
Cree, Inc. (CREE)	67.96	42.5-44.5	-
Popular, Inc. (BPOP)	0.00	26-28	-

After a very healthy advance from the mid-November lows, we’re starting to see a little distribution creep into the market; the indexes are chopping around a bit, some stocks have gotten hit on earnings and growth stocks in general have been lagging—not poor performance, but not superb, either. Now, with all that said, we can’t say the action is abnormal; earnings season always brings a few hiccups and the market deserves a breather after a big run. But just consider it a heads-up—the long-awaited market pullback could be starting. We’re keeping our Market Monitor in the bullish camp, as the odds are that any weakness will give way to higher prices.
This week’s list reflects where the strength lie in this market—mostly economically sensitive stocks, along with a smattering of earnings winners. Our favorite of the week is Las Vegas Sands (LVS), which just popped on earnings and is showing great strength after a two-year rest period.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Robert Half (RHI)	78.58	33.5-34.5	-
The Manitowoc Company (MTW)	0.00	17-18	-
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)	0.00	72.5-75.5	-
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)	0.00	52-54	-
HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC)	0.00	50-52.5	-
Community Health Systems (CYH)	0.00	35.5-37	-
CommVault (CVLT)	0.00	75-77.5	-
Credit Suisse (CS)	0.00	27.5-29	-
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	95-98	-
Cameron (CAM)	0.00	62-64.5	-

When we moved our Market Monitor into bullish territory back on December 10 we had no idea how much strength would develop in the market. It’s been a great run! Today many stocks finally hit a bit of resistance as profit taking showed up; in the short-term, it’s possible the long-awaited pullback could be starting. But, while potholes will come, the evidence doesn’t point to a major correction; most stocks and sectors have just leapt out of 12- to 24-month bases with great power, and many measures of the broad market confirm the underlying strength. Bottom line: while you shouldn’t throw your money into stocks willy-nilly or ignore your sell rules, you should remain bullish and give your best performers a chase to continue higher.
This week’s list reflects the encouraging earnings season thus far; many stocks on the list have recently shot ahead after bullish results and outlooks. Our favorite of the week is Cree Inc. (CREE), the best way to play the growth in LED lighting. Its turnaround plan is working and the stock looks like a new leader.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	35.5-37.5	-
Terex (TEX)	0.00	30-32	-
RockTenn (RKT)	0.00	75-78	-
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	38-40	-
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	155-165	-
Mohawk Industries (MHK)	0.00	98-102	-
Kansas City Southern (KSU)	176.54	90-93.5	-
Delta Air Lines (DAL)	54.28	13-14	-
Credit Suisse (CS)	0.00	27-29	-
Cree, Inc. (CREE)	67.96	39.5-42	-

The market stalled out a bit last week, which is normal considering its recent advance. Overall, our Market Monitor remains bullish, as the trends of most stocks and the major indexes are solidly up. That said, you shouldn’t be surprised if there’s a bit of turbulence coming up; we’re not predicting that, but we did notice some slippage in a few key growth stocks last week, and earnings season, which technically began a few days ago, really heats up during the next three weeks, and that almost always adds to volatility. That’s not a reason to turn cautious—it’s likely some new leadership will emerge on their earnings reports, after all—but just a heads up to make sure you have a battle plan going ahead, namely, stick with what keeps working and rotate out of stuff that breaks down.
This week’s list is a good reflection of the current environment—a few growth stocks but mostly cyclical and turnaround-type names are where the money is flowing. Our favorite of the week is BlackRock (BLK), a huge “Bull Market stock” that reported a great quarter last week. It’s not going to triple, but after a long rest period the stock is under very strong accumulation.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Valero Energy (VLO)	97.40	34-36	-
United Rentals, Inc. (URI)	0.00	46-48	-
Morgan Stanley (MS)	0.00	20.5-21.5	-
Melco Crown (MPEL)	0.00	18-19.5	-
HCA Healthcare (HCA)	137.60	35-36	-
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	36-39	-
Ford Motor Co. (F)	0.00	13.5-14	-
Equinix, Inc. (EQIX)	547.73	213-220	-
Copa Holdings (CPA)	0.00	104-108	-
BlackRock (BLK)	0.00	220-230	-

The major indexes haven’t done much since the market’s opening-day jump this year, but the vast majority of stocks and sectors are in firm uptrends. In fact, probably our biggest takeaway of the past couple of weeks is that the sellers look spent—most shakeouts or downdrafts are met with buying within hours or a couple of days, and so far, any pullbacks have come on far lighter trade than their prior advances. Of course, earnings season is getting underway, and that’s sure to add volatility to the mix, but the evidence is bullish and thus you should continue to hold most of your best performers, while looking to add exposure on normal pullbacks.

This week’s list has a bunch of great-looking charts from a variety of industries; many of them have shown excellent buying volume of late, which bodes well. Our favorite is Transocean (RIG), a powerful turnaround situation that is getting going after a rough couple of years. We’re now seeing institutional investors pile back in.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Urban Outfitters (URBN)	0.00	40-42	-
Trinity Industries (TRN)	0.00	35-36.5	-
Seagate Technology (STX)	0.00	31-33	-
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)	0.00	51-54	-
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)	0.00	26-28	-
Nationstar Mortgage (NSM)	0.00	35.5-37.5	-
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)	0.00	129-135	-
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	29.5-31	-
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	92-95	-
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI)	0.00	45-47	-

If you have the feeling that this year’s boom in the tech sector—and the corresponding record highs in the major averages—isn’t being felt on a market-wide basis, you’re not imagining it.

As it turns out, the record lift in the Nasdaq and S&P is being driven by a troublingly small number of stocks. The result of this narrowing market is that value-focused investors like us have been forced to exercise patience while waiting for the boom to visit our corner of the market (more on that in a minute).

WHAT TO DO NOW: Big picture, the market and most leaders look great, and our market timing indicators are in fine shape. Near-term, though, there’s little doubt things have gotten a bit giddy, with many names and indexes extended to the upside. Tonight, we’re placing Cava (CAVA) on Hold as that stock has been caught up in some group weakness; we’ll hold our 45% cash position for now, but stay tuned, as we’d like to add some new names (or add to existing names) in the near future.

What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.

The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.

Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.

Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.

Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”

The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.

Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.

Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.

You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.

It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.

That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.

What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.

Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30^th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.

The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”

Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation

Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.

Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.

Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.