In this week’s issue, there’s good news about the portfolio’s performance in 2017 and great news about TAL Education. There’s also a new recommendation for a big energy company that’s emerging from the cloud of an enormous national scandal.

Today’s recommendation is a little-known but mature industrial company with great growth prospects. Chart risk is small, as the stock has been basing for months, but there is some liquidity risk—this is more thinly traded than any of the current stocks in the portfolio. So if you buy, buy carefully.

Current Market Outlook


The market’s story has remained the same since the new year began—the major indexes and most leading stocks are in firm uptrends, with many longer-term indicators and studies pointing to higher prices in the months ahead. That said, most stocks are extended to the upside (and, now, earnings season is getting underway), so be sure to keep your feet on the ground and look for good entry points. Right now, we’re mostly looking for pullback entries; if the market does relax, the odds are good that there will be opportunities in stocks that have recently gotten going. All in all, we remain bullish and heavily invested.

This week’s list again contains a wide mix of stocks (big, small, growth, commodity, turnarounds, etc.), which isn’t surprising given the market’s broad advance. Our Top Pick is ASML Holding (ASML), which was one of the first chip stocks to re-emerge following a great earnings report.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ASML Holding (ASML)	350.01	197-203	184-187
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS)	46.21	30.5-32.5	27.5-28.5
Continental Resources (CLR)	66.19	53-56	49-50.5
Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)	16.06	22.5-24	20-210
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)	0.00	51-55	44-46
Kohl’s (KSS)	70.62	60.5-64.5	55.5-57.5
Lowe’s Companies (LOW)	98.15	99-103	91.5-94
ON Semiconductor (ON)	24.07	23.5-25	21.5-22.5
Teck Resources Limited (TECK)	26.07	27.5-29.5	24.5-26.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)	121.08	184-192	168-172

The market continues to zoom higher amid a vacuum of selling pressure. In the short-term, though, we’re not seeing a lot of stocks at great entry points and earnings season is coming up, both of which could lead to some pullback or retrenchment, at least on a stock-by-stock basis. But longer-term, there are many positives that tell us the odds strongly favor higher prices down the road.

While the broad market returns were fantastic in 2017, there was no stopping our contributors, whose Top 5 Picks gained an average of 72.83%! And in today’s 2018 Top Picks issue, you’ll find a great selection of investments, distributed among almost every sector and investing style.

The market has been hot as a pistol in recent days, and today, after a hot open, stocks rolled over and finished down. Odds are that this downward movement could turn into a real correction. But it’s important not to predict; it’s much more profitable to simply observe the trends and invest in sync with them. Today’s recommendation is a hot little medical stock with a great service.

Current Market Outlook


Stocks had another great week, with the major indexes and most leading stocks levitating higher amidst a vacuum of selling pressure. There’s no question things are a bit bubbly here, with most things trading miles above support and moving averages, and as investor sentiment shifts toward greed. Still, more important to us are the intermediate-term trend (clearly up) and the fact that momentum like we’re seeing generally leads to higher prices down the road. Thus, overall, you should remain bullish, but (a) we still favor being choosy on the buy side, looking for pullbacks and shakeouts in stocks that have shown excellent strength and persistency, and (b) having a plan as we enter earnings season, including looking for new leadership that emerges.

This week’s list has something for everyone, from hot growth stocks to news-driven moves to some turnaround situations. Our Top Pick is Red Rock Resorts (RRR), which is part of the strong gaming group and has began to take a breather after a persistent advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)	15.37	18-19	16-16.8
Arch Coal (ARCH)	82.27	92-95	85.5-87.5
Express Scripts Holding Company (ESRX)	79.25	76.5-79.5	70-72
Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)	35.25	19.5-21	17.5-18.5
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	27.89	30.5-32	28-29
Nucor Corporation (NUE)	66.20	66-69	61.5-63
Red Rock Resorts (RRR)	34.70	32.5-34	30-31
Stifel Financial (SF)	56.32	63-66	58-59.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	188-198	167-175
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	42.5-44	39.5-40.5

While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.

The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.

The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.

The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.

It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.

With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.

And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.

Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.

For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.

After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.

Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.

Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.

The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.

The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.

The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.

It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.

Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.

The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.

That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.

After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.

The rotation out of growth stocks and into cyclical stocks continues to take a toll on emerging market stocks, and we’re selling two of the portfolio’s holdings that have taken turns for the worse: Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Melco Crown (MPEL).

We have many stocks moving right now. I thought you’d like a quick, brief update so that you’re not wondering what to do. One Sell: Big Lots (BIG).

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.