Issues
We’re adding a pure-play security solutions provider to Cabot Small-Cap Confidential to increase our security software exposure. This company is growing revenue well over 20% and is expanding its portfolio of solutions to address large and rapidly growing markets.
We’re clearing one underperforming stock from the portfolio today, and putting one dividend stalwart back on Buy. In today’s issue, you’ll also find a very high-yielding new addition, a recap of our sell strategy and updates on all our stocks.
In today’s issue, we talk about some of the clues to identifying abnormal action, which earlier this year led us to sell a couple of stocks that have since been hit hard, while holding onto some leaders that are beginning to re-emerge. It’s an art as much as a science, but we think the discussion will help you hold your highest-potential holdings through tough corrections.
The market rebound over the past few weeks has been very impressive; it’s now turned our intermediate-term timing indicator back to positive. But buying after such a spike is risky, so today’s recommendation is a beaten-down stock that has nowhere to go but up.
Current Market OutlookWe can’t complain about the market’s action recently—the major indexes have (at the very least) held the strong gains of the past couple of weeks, with the strongest among them (like the Nasdaq) pushing higher. And many individual stocks (especially growth stocks) look vibrant, which is a plus. That said, we can’t conclude that the bulls are back in control, as most major indexes are still hovering around their 50-day lines, and in the broad market, the number of stocks hitting new highs (even on the strong Nasdaq) remains very low. We’re close to an all-clear signal, and think it’s fine for you to hold your strong stocks and do a little buying here or there. But right now, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at neutral until we see confirmation of an uptrend.
This week’s list has a ton of good stories and charts, with growth stocks well represented. It’s hard to pick just one, but we’ll go with Red Hat (RHT), which looks like a big-cap leader of the leading software group.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Coal (ARCH) | 82.27 | ||
| GoDaddy (GDDY) | 0.00 | ||
| MuleSoft (MULE) | 0.00 | ||
| Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) | 423.92 | ||
| Planet Fitness (PLNT) | 0.00 | ||
| Red Hat (RHT) | 0.00 | ||
| TAL Education (TAL) | 50.49 | ||
| Twilio (TWLO) | 183.39 | ||
| Vale S.A. (VALE) | 15.40 | ||
| Zendesk (ZEN) | 82.19 |
Emerging market stocks have followed the lead of the major U.S. indexes by executing a V-shaped bounce from their January/February slump and most of our stocks are in good shape. We’re keeping an eye on Chinese New Year as an economic force and on the battle between Alibaba and Tencent/JD.com for leadership in the Chinese online retail race. And we have a high-flying Chinese biopharmaceutical company to fit into the portfolio.
While the market’s volatility increases the need for selective stock picking, it also presents some fantastic opportunities to buy stocks whose shares have been discounted through no fault of their own. Our contributors are pouncing on those ideas.
Today’s stock is from one of the hottest sectors of the market, China, and it’s got a big growth story—as well as the beginnings of a move to expand outside of China. As for our current stocks, in general all is well, not least because of the market’s recent rebound. In fact, we’ve got several stocks hitting new highs!
Current Market OutlookMost major indexes have recouped a bit more than half of what they lost in the recent two-week plunge and are now standing above or just below their 50-day moving averages—so what happens from here will be vital. A continued rally would turn the intermediate-term trend positive and tell us to become more aggressive, but renewed weakness would be a sign that the sellers are still lurking. Meanwhile, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the action of leading stocks, many of which have rebounded nicely, with some (including a few in this issue) pushing to all-time highs. We’re nudging our Market Monitor back to neutral, and will take our cues from the market and leading stocks in the days ahead.
This week’s list is the second straight that’s featured a bunch of resilient growth stocks, which tells you where big investors are putting money to work. Our Top Pick is Weibo (WB), the Chinese social media giant that broke out to new highs last week.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| HubSpot (HUBS) | 582.89 | ||
| Okta, Inc. (OKTA) | 148.41 | ||
| Paycom Software (PAYC) | 0.00 | ||
| Sangamo BioSciences (SGMO) | 0.00 | ||
| Shopify (SHOP) | 585.00 | ||
| SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG) | 124.37 | ||
| Steel Dynamics (STLD) | 0.00 | ||
| Weibo (WB) | 98.16 | ||
| Workday (WDAY) | 194.88 | ||
| Yandex (YNDX) | 0.00 |
Updates
What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
Alerts
Today we have important news on two of our stocks. I also comment on homebuilder stocks, and name several stocks that are looking good today.
This Xerox spin-off has an enviable list of clients and operates in a rapidly-growing sector.
This ETF is comprised of mostly consumer cyclical and basic materials companies linked to the home building industry.
This company is the subject of an investigative report published today by the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation.
This companies shares dropped 7% on February 16 after the company released disappointing fourth-quarter results and suspended its dividend.
Ongoing problems in China’s travel industry are concerning me enough that I am moving one of our stocks from Strong Buy to Hold.
GM has officially agreed to sell its European business to Peugeot. The deal was announced this morning and GM is trading slightly higher pre-market.
This defense, aerospace, and industrial contractor beat earnings estimates by $0.11 last quarter.
Costco (COST) opened 4% lower today following the company’s second-quarter report, which missed estimates.
Today’s special bulletin brings news on one of our stocks, followed by brief comments on additional portfolio stocks.
Analysts expect this stock to earn $3.48 a share, on sales of $4.08 billion, when it reports today.
We’re enjoying better-than-expected results from reporting companies this week. Here’s my quick take on three Cabot Small-Cap Confidential positions that have recently reported.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.