Issues
The latest issue of Cabot Marijuana Investor is now available, with my current advice on the fourteen stocks in the portfolio.
The cannabis sector is currently in a correction, with both marijuana and CBD stocks trending lower, giving up some of their early-year gains—and perhaps building a bottom here.
In fact some of the biggest stocks, those supported best by institutional investors, are already looking stronger, though it will take time to know if they are in real uptrends. In the meantime, I continue to build cash, which will come in handy when it’s time to buy again.
Last week we sold a portion of three stocks and this week we’re selling portions of two more, raising the portfolio’s cash level to about 33%.
The cannabis sector is currently in a correction, with both marijuana and CBD stocks trending lower, giving up some of their early-year gains—and perhaps building a bottom here.
In fact some of the biggest stocks, those supported best by institutional investors, are already looking stronger, though it will take time to know if they are in real uptrends. In the meantime, I continue to build cash, which will come in handy when it’s time to buy again.
Last week we sold a portion of three stocks and this week we’re selling portions of two more, raising the portfolio’s cash level to about 33%.
Markets are hoping for some sort of breakthrough from the Xi-Trump meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 meetings in Japan over the weekend. Most likely there will be some positive face-saving news with most key issues kicked down the road. The Chinese want no new tariffs and Huawei sanctions pulled back. Emerging market signal is still positive and we remain cautiously optimistic.
So far, the market has had a fantastic year with the S&P up 16.38% at the halfway point. It’s also been a stellar June as the index has climbed 7.3% this month alone. Now, the market is perched near all-time record highs. In this issue, I highlight a stock that is cheap in an expensive market that has a great chance of moving higher in the quarters ahead. It is the best run American refiner that has been knocked back because of temporary conditions in an environment otherwise ideal for American refiners.
The broad market sold off today, but odds are it’s just a normal pullback in the renewed bull market. Overall, our market-timing indicators tell us the trends are up. However, eternal vigilance is the price of success in investing, so today I’m recommending selling two stocks that have recently broken down.
Current Market OutlookThe market’s intermediate-term trend turned back up last week after the major indexes tacked on more gains following the Fed’s dovish words. Combined with a bullish longer-term trend and many indicators that suggest investors remain hesitant, the path of least resistance for stocks remains up. That said, the market rarely makes it easy, and on that note, we’ve seen a fair amount of rotation in recent days out of some of the strong (and in many cases, extended) growth stocks and into other areas of the market. Overall, we remain bullish, but you should take things on a stock-by-stock basis—if you own something at a good profit, consider booking partial profits and trailing a stop for the rest, while honoring loss limits on any recent purchases. On the flip side, many “fresher” names look poised for higher prices as they’ve only recently emerged from multi-month slumbers.
This week’s list contains all types, but includes a few of those fresher-looking charts. Our Top Pick this week is Iqvia (IQV), a steady, reliable medical play that just blasted off from a good-looking rest period.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) | 79.05 | ||
| AAXN (AAXN) | 87.11 | ||
| CoStar Group (CSGP) | 589.55 | ||
| Exact Sciences (EXAS) | 116.91 | ||
| Insulet (PODD) | 175.69 | ||
| IQVIA Holdings (IQV) | 157.93 | ||
| Rapid7 (RPD) | 63.52 | ||
| Sea Limited (SE) | 132.86 | ||
| Tempur Sealy (TPX) | 85.53 | ||
| Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) | 26.82 |
The big news today is that our Cabot Tides are now positive, telling us the market’s intermediate-term trend has once again turned up, and thus making all our market-timing indicators positive.
This morning we sent out a bulletin announcing this and discussing two new buys and you can read more about those in this issue.
This buying brings our cash position down to 23%, which is still high for a bull market, but we won’t rush; we’ll watch carefully to see where the real leaders are and guide you to increased investment in them in the weeks ahead.
This morning we sent out a bulletin announcing this and discussing two new buys and you can read more about those in this issue.
This buying brings our cash position down to 23%, which is still high for a bull market, but we won’t rush; we’ll watch carefully to see where the real leaders are and guide you to increased investment in them in the weeks ahead.
As the market continues to strengthen, we are very close to having all of our market timing indicators back on the bullish side. In the meantime, most of our stocks look good, with many hitting new highs in recent days. In fact, I can find none to sell today.
As for today’s recommendation, it’s a fast-growing Chinese stock with a product you’re probably familiar with. It’s not a low-risk stock, but with the right timing, it could be a home run.
As for today’s recommendation, it’s a fast-growing Chinese stock with a product you’re probably familiar with. It’s not a low-risk stock, but with the right timing, it could be a home run.
Current Market OutlookNot much happened last week, with the major indexes up a fraction of a percent and most leading stocks in a similar boat. But to us, that was a good thing—the fact that stocks held up following the prior week’s romp higher and a bunch of bad news (Iran tensions) and upcoming uncertainties (Fed meeting and G20 powwow) at least shows sellers didn’t pounce on the opportunity to bail. As we wrote last week, there’s more positive evidence than negative evidence, which is why we’re leaning bullish—but the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes and many stocks and sectors has yet to turn positive, so we’re also not pounding the bullish drums. Holding your strong stocks and nibbling on some good-looking charts is fine by us, but we also advise sitting with a chunk of cash and patiently waiting to see if the market can follow through on its recent strength.
This week’s list is a bit broader than those we’ve seen recently, with a lot of good charts and growth stories. Our Top Pick is Blackstone (BX), which has shown great power of late.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AngloGold Ashanti (AU) | 20.45 | ||
| Blackstone Group (BX) | 49.12 | ||
| Boot Barn (BOOT) | 43.24 | ||
| Casey’s General Store (CASY) | 165.73 | ||
| Haemonetics (HAE) | 136.59 | ||
| Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) | 214.38 | ||
| Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) | 104.98 | ||
| Penumbra Inc. (PEN) | 173.25 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| Universal Display (OLED) | 187.54 |
Updates
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.
Markets are facing more inflation as the Iran mess gets messier. Concerns over high AI capital spending are a cloud over a resilient market. On the bright side for our portfolio, however, International Business Machines (IBM) shares were up 7.4% this week following last week’s 8.9% gain. Sea Limited (SE) shares leapt 9.6% this week and are up about 20% over the past month. MercadoLibre (MELI) shares are up 11.6% over the last two weeks.
I remain bullish on stocks, but I am turning more cautious, winding down leverage, and letting some cash build up in my non-marginable accounts.
The reason is that spooky season lies just around the corner. September and October are typically the weakest months of the year. We also often see weakness in July and August, perhaps as investors get nervous about those looming difficult months.
The reason is that spooky season lies just around the corner. September and October are typically the weakest months of the year. We also often see weakness in July and August, perhaps as investors get nervous about those looming difficult months.
After a very strong run since the March lows, the market appears to be going through a healthy, albeit somewhat uncomfortable, rotation.
The biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade are finally seeing some profit-taking, with Goldman Sachs (GS) noting that momentum stocks recently suffered their worst two-day decline since 2020. UBS (UBS) just said that the momentum factor is down roughly 20% from its June peak, marking the seventh-largest drawdown of the last decade and the fastest decline of that magnitude on record.
The biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade are finally seeing some profit-taking, with Goldman Sachs (GS) noting that momentum stocks recently suffered their worst two-day decline since 2020. UBS (UBS) just said that the momentum factor is down roughly 20% from its June peak, marking the seventh-largest drawdown of the last decade and the fastest decline of that magnitude on record.
Alerts
Analysts are expecting this travel company to grow by more than 15% annually over the next five years.
Estimates are rising for this oil services company.
One of our stocks moves from Hold to Buy, and moves from the Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio into the Growth & Income Portfolio; another stock moves from Strong Buy to Buy.
More than 214,000 shares have been purchased by the insiders of this biotech in the past three months. The shares are trading a very price, reflecting the company’s turnaround status.
Now that this drug store chain has ironed out it agreement with Walgreens, analysts are looking for triple-digit growth next year.
This gold royalty company is beginning to catch up to its larger peers, yet still trades at a buyable level.
This Western Canada oil producer is a low-priced stock, so will most likely prove fairly volatile. It has some interesting prospects, and some new catalysts that look promising.
Today four stocks move to Hold and one stock to Sell.
Here are two Top Picks, one each for more conservative or more aggressive investors.
This second top pick is the more aggressive of the two recommendations.
This newly-public company reported $3.8 million in earnings for the September quarter, a 165.2% increase. It is a speculative play in the Bitcoin arena.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.