Issues
Emerging markets have stayed strong into the second quarter, with China leading the way and calming markets by delivering 6% economic growth.
Inside this issue is a new recommendation with a play on a market some estimate as large as $94 trillion over the next two decades. The company delivers a key ingredient that turns steel into “super steel” and plays a key role in electrifying the grid.
Inside this issue is a new recommendation with a play on a market some estimate as large as $94 trillion over the next two decades. The company delivers a key ingredient that turns steel into “super steel” and plays a key role in electrifying the grid.
The market remains in good health, and all Cabot’s market timing indicators are positive, telling us the odds are that the market will be higher in the months ahead.
For today’s recommendation we move outside the U.S. to a Chinese company targeting a mass market, a mass market that is virtually guaranteed to grow in the years ahead. It’s a stock that not known to most U.S. investors, and I think it’s a good buy here.
As for the current portfolio, some stocks are hitting new highs and many are close to it, while our value-based selections and Heritage stocks still show long-term potential.
For today’s recommendation we move outside the U.S. to a Chinese company targeting a mass market, a mass market that is virtually guaranteed to grow in the years ahead. It’s a stock that not known to most U.S. investors, and I think it’s a good buy here.
As for the current portfolio, some stocks are hitting new highs and many are close to it, while our value-based selections and Heritage stocks still show long-term potential.
Current Market OutlookLast week was a solid one for the market, not necessarily in the major indexes but in the action of leading stocks, many of which bounced nicely off key intermediate-term support. Looking at the evidence, the vast majority of it is bullish, so we are, too—we’re bumping our Market Monitor up to a level 8 in tonight’s issue. That said, earnings season is just getting underway for most stocks, which will obviously be important. There will surely be the usual ups and downs, but we’ll be looking to see if any new leadership emerges or, conversely, if some of the leading stocks that have had good moves show abnormal weakness.
In the meantime, we’re just following the system, looking for strong stocks that are relatively early in their overall runs. Our Top Pick this week is Okta (OKTA), which looks to be resuming its run after a seven-week rest.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Armstrong World (AWI) | 88.01 | ||
| Avalara (AVLR) | 102.00 | ||
| The Walt Disney Company (DIS) | 144.76 | ||
| Heico (HEI) | 134.84 | ||
| Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) | 36.88 | ||
| Nexstar Media Group (NXST) | 105.68 | ||
| Okta, Inc. (OKTA) | 148.41 | ||
| Yeti Holdings (YETI) | 42.80 | ||
| Yext Inc. (YEXT) | 21.32 | ||
| Zscaler (ZS) | 126.22 |
The past few weeks have been choppy and challenging for many growth stocks, but we’re happy to see some of the yellow flags from last week be addressed--our Cabot Tides, which were on the fence, are again positive, and most growth stocks that dipped to support have found buyers. Of course, there remain some worries (earnings season is coming up; relatively few stocks are hitting new highs), but most of the evidence remains bullish
Tonight, in fact, we’re putting some of our sidelined cash back to work by averaging up in one stock and starting with a half-sized position in another, which will leave us with 17% cash.
In tonight’s Cabot Growth Investor, we talk about all our current holdings, highlight one beaten-down sector we’re keeping a distant eye on for a new upturn, as well as look at some little-known names that are on our watch list.
Tonight, in fact, we’re putting some of our sidelined cash back to work by averaging up in one stock and starting with a half-sized position in another, which will leave us with 17% cash.
In tonight’s Cabot Growth Investor, we talk about all our current holdings, highlight one beaten-down sector we’re keeping a distant eye on for a new upturn, as well as look at some little-known names that are on our watch list.
I’ve just spent two glorious days cleaning out my flower beds and planting my annuals. Cleaning up my yard reminds me that it would also be a good time to review your portfolio—get rid of the non-performers and make room for some more profitable investments.
The volatility in the market has abated—for now—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining about 600 points since the last issue. And as you’ll see in Market Views and our Advisor Investment Barometer, the investment pros continue to be bullish. The economy continues to be strong, with decent housing and manufacturing numbers, as well as low unemployment.
The volatility in the market has abated—for now—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining about 600 points since the last issue. And as you’ll see in Market Views and our Advisor Investment Barometer, the investment pros continue to be bullish. The economy continues to be strong, with decent housing and manufacturing numbers, as well as low unemployment.
The market remains in good health, though selectivity remains important.
For today’s recommendation we swing back to the more conservative side of the market with a very big, very well known company whose stock has just begun a new uptrend.
As for the current portfolio, we have five stocks hitting new highs in recent days, and none doing poorly, so overall, progress is being made! There are no sells today. Details in the issue.
For today’s recommendation we swing back to the more conservative side of the market with a very big, very well known company whose stock has just begun a new uptrend.
As for the current portfolio, we have five stocks hitting new highs in recent days, and none doing poorly, so overall, progress is being made! There are no sells today. Details in the issue.
Current Market OutlookLast week saw a continuation of the market’s rally, with most major indexes (save small caps) lifting to new recovery highs, led by many “old world” sectors like financials, mining, transports and the like. Meanwhile, many hot growth stocks (mostly technology) lagged, with a bunch falling to key intermediate-term support. What does it mean? As we wrote in Friday’s update, you should take things on a stock-by-stock basis—most stocks still look great, and if you have some winners, you should continue giving them a chance to crank higher. But it’s important not to be complacent, either, so be sure to honor your loss limits and stops in case the selling in growth stocks continues and/or the selling spreads to other corners of the market. Overall, we remain mostly bullish as most of the evidence continues to point up.
Not surprisingly, this week’s list has many newer names to the publication as the buying power rotates to other areas. Our Top Pick is Wynn Resorts (WYNN), which, along with many gaming peers, looks to have changed character last week. Try to buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Acacia Communications (ACIA) | 51.83 | ||
| Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | 82.24 | ||
| Amphenol (APH) | 91.75 | ||
| Autohome (ATHM) | 98.65 | ||
| Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP) | 156.17 | ||
| Delta Air Lines (DAL) | 54.28 | ||
| Lennox International (LII) | 270.56 | ||
| Lululemon Athletica (LULU) | 304.69 | ||
| Rio Tinto plc (RIO) | 57.05 | ||
| Wynn Resorts (WYNN) | 121.08 |
This month we’re wading deeper into the MedTech space with a life sciences company that’s commercializing a disruptive technology that could diagnose disease in seemingly healthy people.
It’s an exciting story of a young company that appears to be in the early innings of its growth curve, but has made it far enough with respect to technology development, customers and strategic partnerships to attract attention from larger investors.
Revenue was up 60% in 2018, and is projected to keep growing at a rapid rate. All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
It’s an exciting story of a young company that appears to be in the early innings of its growth curve, but has made it far enough with respect to technology development, customers and strategic partnerships to attract attention from larger investors.
Revenue was up 60% in 2018, and is projected to keep growing at a rapid rate. All the details are inside this month’s Issue.
Updates
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The market came roaring back to new highs last week after a tough March. But the war isn’t over yet, and there could be more bouncing around in the weeks ahead.
Investors are clearly already looking past this war, as there is a high degree of optimism that hostilities will soon end. There is probably still a big rally or two left in the tank when the war actually ends. Sure, there is still headline risk in the meantime. But the war is clearly fading as the biggest market catalyst and giving way to earnings.
Investors are clearly already looking past this war, as there is a high degree of optimism that hostilities will soon end. There is probably still a big rally or two left in the tank when the war actually ends. Sure, there is still headline risk in the meantime. But the war is clearly fading as the biggest market catalyst and giving way to earnings.
Alerts
Here are two Top Picks, both Chinese companies who are growing at double-digit rates.
Here is the second of two Top Picks, both Chinese companies who are growing at double-digit rates.
This homebuilder is enjoying a busy housing market, and beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.07 last quarter
Our first idea, a specialty retailer, beat analysts’ EPS estimates by five cents a share last quarter, and 16 analysts have increased their earnings forecasts in the past 30 days.
Our second recommendation is partial profit-taking.
Analysts are expecting this healthcare tech company to grow by 16.53% annually for the next five years.
This health insurer beat Wall Street’s estimates by $0.11 last quarter.
While not yet profitable, this Chinese data center business is growing exponentially.
With recent U.S. anti-dumping investigations against China, particularly for aluminum sheets, as well as China’s clampdown on illegal and polluting facilities that could reduce production, things might be looking up for U.S. aluminum producers.
The top five sectors of this emerging markets fund are: Technology (29.77% of assets); Financial Services (18.52%), Consumer Cyclical (15.94%), Consumer Defensive (9.35%) and Industrials (7.40%).
The top five holdings of this conservative income fund are Tmcc Mstr 1wkl+35 12/06/17 P/P(1.33% of assets); Sumitomo Mitsui Bkg FRN (1.07%); Australia & New Zeala Bkg FRN (1.00%); Bk Amer FRN (0.94%) and Ing Bk Nv 144A FRN (0.93%).
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.