Current Market Outlook


The market cracked its intermediate-term uptrend last week, with all the major indexes diving below their 50-day lines decisive fashion, and it appeared they could be ready to go over the falls. But as has been the case for months, the market reversed, with a decent-looking bounce to end the week. Overall, the trend of the major indexes remains effectively sideways, with no net progress for five-plus months at this point. And for individual stocks, it’s mostly the same story—we’re still seeing many that are holding up well, but few are going up, so no real money is being made. We’re still game for holding your strong, resilient stocks, especially if they’ve already taken some hits and held support. But we also think it’s best to mostly lay low, holding plenty of cash and being choosy on the buy side until the buyers flex their muscles. We’re dropping our Market Monitor down to level 5.

This week’s list has a good number of names that have recently shown strong accumulation and have held most of their gains, despite the soft environment. Our Top Pick is RingCentral (RNG), which announced a game-changing deal last week that lit a fire under the stock. Dips would be tempting.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	143-147	126-128
Edwards Lifesciences (EW)	228.06	222-226	204-206
Lennar (LEN)	61.85	57-58.5	52-53
Medicines Company (MDCO)	56.98	57-58.5	52-53
Proofpoint (PFPT)	113.79	128-131	117-119
RH Inc. (RH)	252.93	168-172	152-155
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	164-170	144-148
Seattle Genetics (SGEN)	150.85	83-86	75-77
Visteon (VC)	89.82	76-79	70-71
ZTO Express (ZTO)	28.84	20.2-21	18.8-19.3

It was 2007 when James Morales first realized he had sleep apnea. For over a decade he frequently stopped breathing at night, struggled in life and at work due to chronic fatigue, and his wife was always worried about what could happen if he didn’t get help.
Today, James sleeps like a baby. He rocks out of bed, attacks the day doing house projects and in his job. The best thing is he’s not relying on a CPAP machine – complete with hoses and a face mask – to deal with the sleep apnea.

What was his solution?
It’s all laid out in the October Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.

Some weak economic numbers and political uncertainty about Hong Kong roiled markets a bit but emerging and international stocks rebounded a bit today. China stocks are getting some scrutiny in Washington amidst U.S.-China rivalry. Nevertheless, our new recommendation today is from the Middle Kingdom and is centered on a high growth theme that has a lot of momentum behind it.

There are five growth stocks in our Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor portfolios that offer dividend yields in excess of 5%. That’s crazy! Stocks with rising profits in combination with very large dividend yields are generally uncommon, and can indicate an extreme undervaluation of those companies’ share prices. Dividends can tell you a lot about a company, or about the broader stock market. I cover the dividend topic in more detail in today’s issue.

The market remains healthy, with all major indexes in uptrends and no major signs of divergence, and thus I continue to recommend heavy investment in stocks that meet your portfolio’s goals.

However, the recent market rotation has seen growth stocks struggling while high-yielding safe stocks thrive—and our portfolio has been adjusting accordingly, week by week. And this week the trend continues, as we sell two more growth stocks.

This week’s recommendation is a small company with a valuable piece of the world’s mobile communications infrastructure, as its trading symbol makes so clear.

Texas is booming and has the nation’s second-largest economy behind California would be the world’s tenth largest if it were a stand-alone country. Yet not every company in the Lone Star State is doing well.

In this issue, we cover seven companies there that we believe have appealing turnaround potential.

Current Market Outlook


Impeachment talk stole the headlines last week, and China trade issues remain one of the chief economic concerns, but overall, the market remains healthy, with all major indexes in uptrends and most just a couple of weeks off their recent highs. Nevertheless, making money remains difficult, as the forces of rotation have been sending old leaders to the locker room and trotting out fresher new leaders to take their place. This is actually good for the health of the bull market, but it does make investing more difficult, so you should continue to tread carefully, in particular by choosing low-risk entry points and being ruthless at cutting loose your worst performers. As for the market monitor, we’ll stand pat this week, as the flurry of selling late last week has created some decent entry points.

This week’s list includes a great variety of stocks, and our Top Pick is a lower-risk insurance stock, Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), which has been building a base over the past couple of months and looking ripe to resume its uptrend.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)	89.27	87-91	84-86
Chubb Group (CB)	153.34	156-164	150-152
Entegris (ENTG)	48.08	46-48	41-42
Garmin (GRMN)	97.45	81-87	77-78
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	154-168	145-147
Jabil Inc. (JBL)	41.50	34-36	31-32
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)	66.65	62-65	59-61
Synnex Corp. (SNX)	129.70	110-113	105-108
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)	27.51	24-26	22-23
Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WW)	35.33	35-38	30-32

The majority of the evidence when it comes to the overall market remains positive, but the environment for individual growth stocks remains very challenging—many are still holding up well, but no real money is being made as waves of selling pressures show up every couple of days. We’re still holding our resilient names and aren’t opposed to new buying here or there, but it’s important to hold some cash and keep new buys small until the bulls step up to the plate for more than a few hours at a time.

With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.

And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.

Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.

For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.

After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.

Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.

Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.

The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.

The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.

The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.

It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.

Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.

The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.

That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.

After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.

Markets are facing more inflation as the Iran mess gets messier. Concerns over high AI capital spending are a cloud over a resilient market. On the bright side for our portfolio, however, International Business Machines (IBM) shares were up 7.4% this week following last week’s 8.9% gain. Sea Limited (SE) shares leapt 9.6% this week and are up about 20% over the past month. MercadoLibre (MELI) shares are up 11.6% over the last two weeks.

I remain bullish on stocks, but I am turning more cautious, winding down leverage, and letting some cash build up in my non-marginable accounts.

The reason is that spooky season lies just around the corner. September and October are typically the weakest months of the year. We also often see weakness in July and August, perhaps as investors get nervous about those looming difficult months.

After a very strong run since the March lows, the market appears to be going through a healthy, albeit somewhat uncomfortable, rotation.

The biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade are finally seeing some profit-taking, with Goldman Sachs (GS) noting that momentum stocks recently suffered their worst two-day decline since 2020. UBS (UBS) just said that the momentum factor is down roughly 20% from its June peak, marking the seventh-largest drawdown of the last decade and the fastest decline of that magnitude on record.

This investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index®.

Analysts expect this pharma to grow at more than 100% over the next five years.

Nomura just upgraded the shares of this financial behemoth to ‘Buy’ and two analysts have increased their EPS estimates for the company in the past 30 days.

The top five holdings of this fund are: Apple Inc (AAPL, 1.59%); Microsoft Corp (MSFT, 1.51%); Amazon.com Inc (AMZN, 1.22%); Facebook Inc A (FB, 0.92%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM, 0.82%).

One of our stocks reported this morning and results came in just shy of expectations. The bottom line is that the stock is selling off hard and is back down to its 200-day line, and in the zone of support that’s held for the last four months.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) reported positive results in a Phase 3 clinical study of ALXN1210 this morning, for treatment of Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH).

We have two funds for you today.

Two of our stocks reported their latest quarterly results yesterday and both disappointed; one is now rated Sell.

Signet Jewelers (SIG) fell dramatically upon news surrounding the fourth-quarter earnings release. The fourth-quarter numbers were not the problem, but there were additional announcements.

The shares were recently upgraded to ‘Buy’ at Gabelli & Co. and 12 analysts have increased their EPS estimates in the past 30 days.

Our first idea, an aerospace and oilfield service supplier handily beat earnings estimates and received a new ‘Buy’ rating.

Our other two recommendations are profit-taking on two previous ideas.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.