Issues
While the broad stock market reaches for new all-time record highs, companies that produce oil and natural gas remain heavily out-of-favor. Yet, with Big Oil stock prices down by as much as 60% since oil prices peaked at over $100/barrel in mid-2014, they look like high-yielding bargains.
In this issue, we outline our bullish outlook for six major oil companies.
In this issue, we outline our bullish outlook for six major oil companies.
This month we’re venturing into the services sector with a stock that fits the Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategy that’s come back into favor recently. This isn’t a high-flying stock with a new widget or software solution. It’s a pretty basic business really. In all likelihood, it’s insulated from trade wars, and even recessions too.
This little nugget is helping rebuild America’s infrastructure, one road at a time. With funding for road construction and repairs going up, and a long list of acquisition targets to roll into its business, this young company has a bright future.
All the details are inside the November Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
This little nugget is helping rebuild America’s infrastructure, one road at a time. With funding for road construction and repairs going up, and a long list of acquisition targets to roll into its business, this young company has a bright future.
All the details are inside the November Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
Have you noticed that the chatter concerning the U.S.-China trade deal has gone down considerably? It probably reflects a good reset of expectations.
Our emerging markets timer is positive so it pays to be optimistic and keep investing in outstanding companies with strong fundamentals.
Today’s new recommendation has steadily rising net revenues, strong market position, a robust pipeline of products, an extensive family of patents as well as a strong cash flow and a strong balance sheet.
Our emerging markets timer is positive so it pays to be optimistic and keep investing in outstanding companies with strong fundamentals.
Today’s new recommendation has steadily rising net revenues, strong market position, a robust pipeline of products, an extensive family of patents as well as a strong cash flow and a strong balance sheet.
One year ago, soon after marijuana sales became legal in Canada, investors were throwing money at the sector, anxious to get a piece of the action. Today, the opposite is true—getting money for a cannabis business takes real work!
At a new all-time high, this is a tough market to navigate. Sure, the market could stay good for a while. But at this late-stage of the bull market and recovery, how much is left in the tank?
It’s hard to muster the enthusiasm to take on risk to get the last drop of this late stage bull market before the next downturn. While defensive stocks make a lot of sense here, most are very expensive. But there is one place where stock prices are still cheap, value stocks.
Investors have been rotating toward the long-neglected value stocks and they are starting to perk up. These stocks represent a way to get bargains in an expensive market as well as protection from the next downturn. And some stocks even have momentum.
In this issue, I highlight a stock that is one of the best healthcare companies in the world that is perfectly positioned ahead of the world’s most pronounced megatrend. It also offers great value in an expensive market and has recently found upward momentum.
It’s hard to muster the enthusiasm to take on risk to get the last drop of this late stage bull market before the next downturn. While defensive stocks make a lot of sense here, most are very expensive. But there is one place where stock prices are still cheap, value stocks.
Investors have been rotating toward the long-neglected value stocks and they are starting to perk up. These stocks represent a way to get bargains in an expensive market as well as protection from the next downturn. And some stocks even have momentum.
In this issue, I highlight a stock that is one of the best healthcare companies in the world that is perfectly positioned ahead of the world’s most pronounced megatrend. It also offers great value in an expensive market and has recently found upward momentum.
Many major indexes have hit new highs in recent days, and all Cabot’s market timing indicators are currently positive. Conclusion: it’s a bull market and you need to be heavily invested.
But, as always, you need to manage your portfolio. In our own portfolio, eight of our stocks have hit new highs in the past week, which is great. But two of the others are being downgraded to hold because their prospects are less secure.
As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a young, fast-growing company in a high-risk/high-potential market sector. It’s certainly not for everyone, but for aggressive investors, it could be fun.
But, as always, you need to manage your portfolio. In our own portfolio, eight of our stocks have hit new highs in the past week, which is great. But two of the others are being downgraded to hold because their prospects are less secure.
As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a young, fast-growing company in a high-risk/high-potential market sector. It’s certainly not for everyone, but for aggressive investors, it could be fun.
Current Market OutlookThe market had another constructive week, and today, the S&P 500 actually nosed out to new highs, with the Nasdaq close behind. While small- and mid-cap indexes are still further behind, the tenor of the overall market continues to improve—it’s likely not up and away, but the odds continue to favor the next big move being up. Individual stocks remain far trickier, with rotation occurring daily, but our thoughts from last week haven’t changed much: Given the many solid setups out there, a positive earnings season could launch a bunch of new leaders we can hop on (we think we’ve already highlighted some of them), but it’s still up to the bulls to produce a bunch more powerful breakouts in the indexes and individual stocks.
This week’s list is a mix of recent earnings winners and others that are set up nicely ahead of reports this week. Our Top Pick is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which might finally be getting going after years of ups and downs. Earnings are due Wednesday evening so handle with care.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) | 47.84 | ||
| Allegiant Travel (ALGT) | 170.65 | ||
| Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) | 81.02 | ||
| Lam Research (LRCX) | 268.47 | ||
| Pinduoduo (PDD) | 87.53 | ||
| Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) | 117.45 | ||
| Seattle Genetics (SGEN) | 150.85 | ||
| Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC) | 127.95 | ||
| Valero Energy (VLO) | 97.40 | ||
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) | 230.36 |
The overall market continues to chop sideways, with some cyclical areas finding buyers. But growth stocks have just suffered another sharp leg lower, led by the former leaders of this year (cloud software, etc.) but spreading to other areas, too. We’ve been holding cash for a while and have sold stuff that’s broken down, including Snap, Coupa and RingCentral, and are now sitting on a massive 66% cash position.
Updates
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.
Markets are facing more inflation as the Iran mess gets messier. Concerns over high AI capital spending are a cloud over a resilient market. On the bright side for our portfolio, however, International Business Machines (IBM) shares were up 7.4% this week following last week’s 8.9% gain. Sea Limited (SE) shares leapt 9.6% this week and are up about 20% over the past month. MercadoLibre (MELI) shares are up 11.6% over the last two weeks.
I remain bullish on stocks, but I am turning more cautious, winding down leverage, and letting some cash build up in my non-marginable accounts.
The reason is that spooky season lies just around the corner. September and October are typically the weakest months of the year. We also often see weakness in July and August, perhaps as investors get nervous about those looming difficult months.
The reason is that spooky season lies just around the corner. September and October are typically the weakest months of the year. We also often see weakness in July and August, perhaps as investors get nervous about those looming difficult months.
After a very strong run since the March lows, the market appears to be going through a healthy, albeit somewhat uncomfortable, rotation.
The biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade are finally seeing some profit-taking, with Goldman Sachs (GS) noting that momentum stocks recently suffered their worst two-day decline since 2020. UBS (UBS) just said that the momentum factor is down roughly 20% from its June peak, marking the seventh-largest drawdown of the last decade and the fastest decline of that magnitude on record.
The biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade are finally seeing some profit-taking, with Goldman Sachs (GS) noting that momentum stocks recently suffered their worst two-day decline since 2020. UBS (UBS) just said that the momentum factor is down roughly 20% from its June peak, marking the seventh-largest drawdown of the last decade and the fastest decline of that magnitude on record.
The S&P 500 was down in June after rising sharply in April and May. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Most stock sectors had a strong month in June. The four best-performing sectors and their returns over the last month include the following: health care (11.2%), financials (8.44%), industrials (6.87%), and utilities (6.64%). Information technology, which drove the S&P higher in April and May, is the worst-performing sector over the last month with a negative 8.75% return.
Most stock sectors had a strong month in June. The four best-performing sectors and their returns over the last month include the following: health care (11.2%), financials (8.44%), industrials (6.87%), and utilities (6.64%). Information technology, which drove the S&P higher in April and May, is the worst-performing sector over the last month with a negative 8.75% return.
Alerts
Our first idea is a company’s whose earnings estimates have been boosted by six analysts in the past 30 days, with estimates increasing $1.28 a share 30 days ago, to $1.66 today.
Our second recommendation is a partial sale of a previous idea.
The shares of this restaurant company were also just initiated as ‘Outperform’ by Baird.
Given the shakiness of the broad market, we want to be reducing our exposure to weak stocks today. As noted in yesterday’s update, we’re going to reduce risk today by taking partial profits in one of our positions.
Zack’s recently raised this chemical company’s rating to ‘Strong Buy’, citing rising earnings estimates.
In my last major update about marijuana stocks, I wrote, “odds are the correction is not over yet. Odds are, the correction will go longer, until traders’ enthusiasm for the sector has truly cooled. Happily, the more time passes, the more the fundamentals of these fast-growing companies get to catch up to the stocks!”
In the past 30 days, five analysts have raised their earnings estimates for this Canadian auto dealer.
The top five stocks in this fund are indicated in this article.
Five analysts have increased their earnings estimates for this internet mailing company in the past 30 days.
The shares of this tech company were recently upgraded to ‘Positive’ by Susquehanna, who cited the company’s ‘hypergrowth’ and raised its price target to $41.
This stock released earnings yesterday, so I’m discussing its share price, its fourth quarter earnings report and the company’s outlook. But I also want to talk about the differences between thriving companies and failing companies, and the murky in-between.
We list the top five holdings of this Japanese closed-end fund.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.