Issues
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the December 2020 issue.
We briefly share our thoughts on the surging stock market and run through some valuation math that looks out a few years. Our conclusion: the market’s earnings growth, even side-stepping the pandemic’s effects, doesn’t look that impressive, while the market’s valuation is on the high side of average. It is starting to look like a good time to be pickier about which stocks to own.
With this thought in mind, we are moving Broadcom (AVGO) from a Hold to a Sell, as the shares have essentially reached our price target.
It’s been a fairly active month for a value-oriented newsletter, adding three new names and selling six, including Broadcom. This leaves the holdings list at 12 names. We anticipate expanding this roster over the next month or two, as there are many interesting value ideas out there.
We also tweaked the descriptions under the portfolio titles to more accurately reflect what types of stocks we look for. This should also help add some clarity to the differences between the two categories.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.
We briefly share our thoughts on the surging stock market and run through some valuation math that looks out a few years. Our conclusion: the market’s earnings growth, even side-stepping the pandemic’s effects, doesn’t look that impressive, while the market’s valuation is on the high side of average. It is starting to look like a good time to be pickier about which stocks to own.
With this thought in mind, we are moving Broadcom (AVGO) from a Hold to a Sell, as the shares have essentially reached our price target.
It’s been a fairly active month for a value-oriented newsletter, adding three new names and selling six, including Broadcom. This leaves the holdings list at 12 names. We anticipate expanding this roster over the next month or two, as there are many interesting value ideas out there.
We also tweaked the descriptions under the portfolio titles to more accurately reflect what types of stocks we look for. This should also help add some clarity to the differences between the two categories.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the December issue.
With the year-end approaching, investors often sell for reasons unrelated to a stock’s outlook. This month we describe some of these reasons, including tax-loss selling, window-dressing, performance bonus protection and the desire for a fresh start in the new year. We discuss seven stocks that look vulnerable to this type of selling yet seem likely to bounce once the selling pressure relents.
We also look at the airline industry – now in the throes of a near-term depression. We believe the outlook for a recovery is improving despite the recent “third wave” of rising Covid case counts. Clearly these stocks carry risks, most prominently that passengers don’t return to flying as much, even after a vaccine and other safety protocols should make flying safe again. Our discussion delves into some of the industry’s arcane metrics, as these help clarify (at least for those with a wonkish interest, like me) the drivers of the downturn and a likely recovery. We highlight five promising discount airline stocks.
Our feature recommendation is the office equipment company Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX). The market tends to dismiss this company, but its robust cash flow, cash-heavy balance sheet, low valuation and 4.6% dividend yield offer strong value.
The letter also includes a summary of our recent sales of Peabody Energy (BTU), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and Barrick Gold (GOLD), our price target increase for Freeport-McMoran (FCX) and the full roster of our current recommendations.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.
With the year-end approaching, investors often sell for reasons unrelated to a stock’s outlook. This month we describe some of these reasons, including tax-loss selling, window-dressing, performance bonus protection and the desire for a fresh start in the new year. We discuss seven stocks that look vulnerable to this type of selling yet seem likely to bounce once the selling pressure relents.
We also look at the airline industry – now in the throes of a near-term depression. We believe the outlook for a recovery is improving despite the recent “third wave” of rising Covid case counts. Clearly these stocks carry risks, most prominently that passengers don’t return to flying as much, even after a vaccine and other safety protocols should make flying safe again. Our discussion delves into some of the industry’s arcane metrics, as these help clarify (at least for those with a wonkish interest, like me) the drivers of the downturn and a likely recovery. We highlight five promising discount airline stocks.
Our feature recommendation is the office equipment company Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX). The market tends to dismiss this company, but its robust cash flow, cash-heavy balance sheet, low valuation and 4.6% dividend yield offer strong value.
The letter also includes a summary of our recent sales of Peabody Energy (BTU), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and Barrick Gold (GOLD), our price target increase for Freeport-McMoran (FCX) and the full roster of our current recommendations.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.
The euphoric vaccine rally has driven the market indexes to all time highs. A vaccine likely means the end of the pandemic, sooner rather than later. The removal of the remaining lockdown restrictions should unshackle the economy and bring on a full and robust recovery.
A full recovery will lift those stocks and sectors that depend on the Main Street economy. It will lift cyclical sectors like energy, finance and hospitality that had not participated in the partial recovery. It’s already happening. The losers of the earlier stock market recovery are on fire.
In this issue I highlight one of the best banks in the country. It is a highly desired stock that should be very quick to recover. The stock has strong momentum and is still priced well below the 52-week high. This issue also highlights two covered call opportunities to cash in on the market rally.
A full recovery will lift those stocks and sectors that depend on the Main Street economy. It will lift cyclical sectors like energy, finance and hospitality that had not participated in the partial recovery. It’s already happening. The losers of the earlier stock market recovery are on fire.
In this issue I highlight one of the best banks in the country. It is a highly desired stock that should be very quick to recover. The stock has strong momentum and is still priced well below the 52-week high. This issue also highlights two covered call opportunities to cash in on the market rally.
The past month has been the best of the year for our marijuana stocks, and while there’s a chance the sector could top out now (there’s so much good news out there), I learned long ago that it doesn’t pay to fight the trend.
The fact is, this sector strength could easily run to the end of the year as investors rush into this high-growth sector. So, we’ll now become fully invested, adding one new stock at the same time.
Full details in the issue.
The fact is, this sector strength could easily run to the end of the year as investors rush into this high-growth sector. So, we’ll now become fully invested, adding one new stock at the same time.
Full details in the issue.
Last Friday all three of our November covered calls expired for full profits.
This is a short week, with my last update just a few days ago, but our Explorer portfolio is doing well. In the last few days, Sea (SE), NovoCure (NVCR) and Alibaba (BABA) are each up 10 points and ElectraMeccanica (SOLO) has increased 20%. As the clouds lift with the flurry of positive vaccine announcements and election uncertainty gone, markets will go into December with more confidence but with lingering doubts about the strength of the economy. Our new recommendation is a leader in critical cancer diagnostics highlighting the benefits of a sharp focus on one market.
Current Market OutlookFirst off, a heads up: Our offices will be closed Thursday and Friday, and next week is one of the two scheduled weeks that we take a break from Top Ten all year. We’re likely to send a brief update this Wednesday with updated stops, but after that, your next update will come Friday, December 4. Have a great long weekend!
As for the market, there remain a couple of flies in the ointment (the Nasdaq still hasn’t reached a new high; sentiment is a bit bubbly), but it’s fair to say the recent action has been constructive, with leading stocks avoiding another bout of selling so far and more individual names perking up. You should still go slow, but we’re increasingly optimistic.
This week’s list has a wide variety of names (big, small, growth, cyclical) that are all finding strength, another good sign for the market. Our Top Pick is Halozyme (HALO), which acts powerfully and has terrific metrics. Try to buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoa (AA) | 19.82 | ||
| Bilibili (BILI) | 63.31 | ||
| Celsius Holdings (CELH) | 33.73 | ||
| Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) | 40.00 | ||
| Huazhu Group (HTHT) | 51.33 | ||
| II-VI Incorporated (IIVI) | 66.45 | ||
| Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) | 183.30 | ||
| Moderna (MRNA) | 100.92 | ||
| Omnicell (OMCL) | 106.80 | ||
| Sonos (SONO) | 21.41 |
The bull market remains alive and well, and I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks.
Last week’s recommendation was well-known Coca-Cola (a true value stock) while this week’s is a fast-growing company that’s never made a profit, but is expected to make bundles, someday. You know its name too!
As for our current portfolio, most trends are good, but we do need to sell one stock, just to keep the portfolio at twenty stocks. That’s a process that ensures we always own the best!
Last week’s recommendation was well-known Coca-Cola (a true value stock) while this week’s is a fast-growing company that’s never made a profit, but is expected to make bundles, someday. You know its name too!
As for our current portfolio, most trends are good, but we do need to sell one stock, just to keep the portfolio at twenty stocks. That’s a process that ensures we always own the best!
Updates
In this Weekly Update, I summarize the latest news for five companies.
The iShares EM Fund is holding up well, staying comfortably above its 25-day moving average, so our Buy signal remains in place. While our stocks are holding up well, there’s a lot of sideways movement in the portfolio. We have no changes to the portfolio tonight.
If you want to build a buy-and-hold portfolio of attractive takeover targets, look no further than undervalued small- and mid-cap growth stocks. Presuming normal stock market action, you’ll reap the benefits associated with owning growth stocks, and you’ll periodically reap the additional exciting benefit of owning takeover stocks.
The market continues to be a bit sketchy, and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is still trading right around the 820 level, which has served as a rough support line thus far this year.
In this Weekly Update, I summarize the latest news for eight companies. Max Buy and Min Sell Prices are the recent price targets appearing in the Cabot Enterprising Model Issue 277E, for which you received the link on August 10.
Remain cautious on the buy side, but continue to hold your top performers. Our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator are both negative, which tells us to hold some cash and cut back on new buying. At the same time, many growth stocks (including a few we own) continue to act well, so we’re also sitting tight with our strong, profitable stocks.
The market deteriorated further this week, so dividend investors should continue to act cautiously. While the major indexes staged a nice comeback yesterday, it isn’t enough to erase the damage done at the end of last week.
Last week, Jim Cramer did a TV segment on “broken companies” vs. “broken stocks.” His point bears repeating.
Despite the weakness in the broad market, most of our stocks have held up well. Over that past week, not one of our remaining stocks fell, and only Primo Water (PRMW) failed to move at all. Our average gain of 3.4% this week was almost 4% better than the S&P 600 Small Cap Index.
Stock market action will likely moderate as investors, looking for bargains, will step in and buy stocks, although once-a-week tumbles could reappear on a regular basis. Hold conservative and defensive stocks to avoid large losses.
The iShares EM Fund has been jumpy, but is still well above its 50-day moving averages, keeping our Buy signal in place, if a little bruised.
The stock market has begun to recover from last week’s war of words-induced selloff, and I’m moving one stock back to Buy today. However, it’s not time for the all-clear yet; last week’s selloff was preceded by significant deterioration under the surface of the market, so we’ll need to see more proof that the bulls are back before jumping back in the water.
Alerts
This auto parts supplier beat analysts’ estimates by a whopping $1.53 per share last quarter.
The top five institutional holders of our first idea, a technology fund, are: Yakira Capital Management, Inc., 0.91% of shares; Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc., 0.58%; Royal Bank of Canada, 0.55%; Herzfeld (Thomas J.) Advisors, Inc, 0.52%; and INTL FCSTONE INC., 0.39%.
Our second recommendation today is a sale of a previous holding.
Looking at the revenues of the 14 companies in our Marijuana Portfolio, the average growth rate in the latest quarter, relative to the previous year, was 409%. The median, for you statistical fans, was 255%. This is one fast-growing sector!
Crista has several portfolio updates and changes today.
This Chinese financial company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.37 last quarter, and four analysts have recently raised their EPS forecasts for the company.
This software company is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 21.47% over the next 5 years.
The top five holdings of this Morningstar three-star-rated fund are: BioTelemetry Inc (BEAT, 4.78% of assets); Vericel Corp (VCEL, 4.64%); CareDx Inc (CDNA, 4.43%); Fluidigm Corp (FLDM, 4.14%); and AtriCure Inc (ATRC, 4.08%).
This e-commerce company beat estimates by $0.12 last quarter.
Five analysts have raised their EPS estimates for this flight simulator company’s stock (also traded as CAE.TO on the Toronto exchange) in the past 30 days.
The broad stock market remains healthy, with all indexes at or near highs, with the exception of small-cap stocks, which are lagging. A rising tide lifts all boats.
This health management company beat analysts’ estimates by $.07 last quarter, and Wall Street expects the company to grow at an annual rate of 15.07% over the next five years.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.