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Issues
Global fossil fuel uncertainty is shining the spotlight back on renewables as the best way for most economies to be energy independent. This issue we feature one of America’s largest renewable generation portfolios, which offers an exceptional 4%-plus dividend yield. We also look at a young renewables-focused business finding its legs in wind, solar and infrastructure.

As always, we also highlight three technically strong ESG stocks to consider and give updates on our Greentech Timer and Real Money and Excelsior portfolios. Read on!


Today, I’m adding the world’s largest publicly traded uranium company Cameco (CCJ), which has held up spectacularly throughout this market meltdown. Though of note, this stock is volatile and we are going to play it super defensively, with an in-the-money call.
The situation remains the same as it has for the past week or so. When it comes to selling pressures, we’re seeing some signs that they’re starting to ease, but, on the buying side, there isn’t much evidence to suggest the bulls are flexing their muscles, as most indexes, sectors and growth funds are still in downtrends while rallies into resistance (whether for an index or stock) almost always attracts quick selling. Yes, there are still many old world stocks that are acting well (though we’ll see how today’s commodity-related selloff goes), so we’re not opposed to nibbling on these sorts of pullbacks. But overall, we think watchful waiting is the right course.



This week’s list is intriguing as there are a good number of fresh breakouts here, some from very long ranges. Our Top Pick is one of those, with the company’s massive step-up in earnings last year expected to persist for at least the next couple of years.

With the market still in a downtrend, defense continues to be important.
Cash is the simplest defensive asset, but low-risk stocks, undervalued stocks, dividend-paying stocks and stocks in sectors bucking the downtrend are all worth considering.



My recommendation this week is a well-known automaker with great prospects in the electric vehicle space whose stock is trading 38% off its recent high.



Details inside.



The market has spent the past six weeks etching a volatile, tedious bottom, with numerous secondary measures offering encouragement, the biggest of which is an ongoing positive divergence in the number of stocks hitting new lows, which tells us fewer stocks are participating in the downside. That’s good to see, but what we really need to see now is real, sustained buying pressure--so far, that hasn’t been the case, so we’re remaining generally defensive.

Value is back.
After nearly a decade of extreme underperformance versus growth stocks, overdue value stocks are flipping the script.


The dominance of growth stocks over the last eight years has been about as lopsided as the relative performance has been over the last 100 years.


But things are changing. Inflation is back. And rising interest rates are sure to follow. This economic recovery is shaping up to a lot different that the last one. This recovery is shaping up to be much better for value stocks. In fact, the role reversal is already underway. Value stocks are already outperforming growth stocks by about 15% so far this year. And it is likely just the beginning.


In this issue, I highlight one of the most dominant technology companies in the world. It is one that has stumbled lately and given way to the competition. But the stock is cheap, wallowing near the four-year low, with limited downside. It is also poised ahead of a likely renewed growth phase. The timing could be just right.


Today, I’m recommending an app developer that I previously recommended (we exited for a 114% gain last year). The business is growing like crazy yet trades at a dirt-cheap valuation.
Other key points:


  • High insider ownership (19% of the company).
  • 25%+ revenue growth this year.
  • 34% of its market cap in cash and no debt.

All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!


The world has clearly changed in the past two weeks. We see an exceptionally wide range of possible outcomes, which makes predictions about the future (already a low success rate endeavor) basically futile. We offer our timeless investing advice that can be readily applied in such situations.

In the letter, we also provide updates on all of our Recommended Stocks.



The iconic phrase above was uttered by James Cagney in the movie White Heat just before his character blew up in a spectacular explosion. The metaphor is a timely one for the broad metals market as prices across the board are skyrocketing to heights not seen in years, or even decades!

But streaking metals prices can quickly reverse based on a dramatic shift in the prevailing geopolitical narrative. For that reason, I recommend tightening up stop-losses and proceeding with caution rather than getting carried away with excessive optimism.



In the portfolio, we just added a new position in a dual steel and aluminum play that looks set to pop.

For the past several weeks, we have bought oils and commodity stocks. Today, I’m going to diversify our portfolio a bit, adding American semiconductor supplier, Onsemi (ON).
The situation with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added a fresh bout of volatility to the markets.

But U.S. markets, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), have not plunged far. The SPY fell to an intraday low of 410.64 on February 24 before rallying to finish the session with a gain.



The truth is: Stocks were already toying with a correction prior to the Ukrainian situation heating up.


The story remains mostly the same: When it comes to rubber-meets-the-road evidence, nothing has changed—the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes remains down, and growth funds and individual stocks are in the same boat. Until some of that changes, it’s telling you the bulls are swimming upstream, so it’s best to be defensive. However, we also don’t want to ignore many secondary measures that are showing some encouraging action, including the indexes holding above their recent lows and increasingly negative sentiment. The pieces are in place for some sort of turnaround, but we’ll have to see it happen before taking action.


This week’s list is again heavy in commodity-type names, though a few other areas popped up as well. For our Top Pick, we’re going with a growth-y name that’s holding well—it’s probably the best-looking non-commodity stock in the market today.

Updates
Remain defensive, but stay tuned. Despite many crosscurrents and news-driven moves this week, we’re just playing it by the book—our Cabot Tides are close to a buy signal, and if that happens, we’ll take a step back into the market.
As we move closer to the end of another week, investors continue to focus on the potential timeline to open parts of the economy. New York has just said the lockdown for non-essential businesses remains in effect for at least another month, but clearly there are many areas that haven’t been so badly affected.
The market is forward looking. It senses an end to this pandemic crisis and a reopening of the economy sooner rather than later. That’s good news. And I agree. The end-of-the-world pessimism that caused the market crash is being tempered. It’s a very good thing.
Yesterday, while reviewing my entire Buy List, I noticed that the insurance/annuity and investment stocks appear ready to begin new run-ups, after resting for a few days.
Clearly the fundamentals of the U.S. and global economy look awful right now. But the market is looking past the first half of 2020 and into the second half of the year and 2021.
Most positions are up 5%-6% for the week, with a couple of exceptions.
I expect to be adding and removing stocks from these portfolios in 2020, more frequently than usual. That’s because when a stock market recovers from a big drop, stocks tend to get stuck in trading ranges, advancing in fits and starts.
Remain defensive. There are good and bad aspects to the market’s short-term action; overall, we’re optimistic a bottom-building process is underway, but we’ll see how it goes.
After falling over 30% in record time, the market has had a nice rebound. In less than a week the market jumped 15% from the lows. It has since stabilized somewhat with less volatility. While the worst may be over, I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.
The past week has seen the market rocket higher on hopes for a massive $2 trillion economic stimulus plan that would try to help consumers and businesses get through the tunnel of productivity and financial devastation that this pandemic has created.
In such an environment it’s easy to assume the worst and miss the flipside of the equation – great companies trading at prices that just a month ago we would have considered incredible. Market volatility and uncertainty are creating great opportunities.
The market doesn’t know how long this will last. And that’s why it hasn’t been able to find a bottom. But there has been some very encouraging news in the past week.
Alerts
Last quarter, this industrial machinery company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.03.
COVID-19 has beaten this REIT stock down, but it has a long track record of success, and while you wait for appreciation, you can enjoy the 5.38% dividend yield, paid quarterly.
The coronavirus has hit this stock hard, but analysts see the company growing 12.6% next year.
The good news is that leading marijuana stocks have seen some heavy buying in recent days—so much, in fact, that the four leading U.S. marijuana stocks have all broken out above their May or June highs.
The market had a very rough day yesterday, with the Dow closing up 10 points (there was some rotation into lagging areas) but the Nasdaq reversed from huge gains to finish down 227 points.
Piper Sandler also likes this energy stock and just shifted its rating to ‘Overweight’.
This medical device company has been hit by COVID-19, so looks very buyable here for the long-term, and it pays a 1.45% dividend.
This midstream energy company has been clobbered by low oil prices.
The shares of this semiconductor company are about even with their recommended price in January, but our contributor is no longer sold on the stock.
The pandemic has hit this entertainment company hard, so it is no longer on the Buy list for our contributor.
This lab company’s stock was hit hard by an SEC investigation into its COVID product, but our contributor (as you’ll see below) remains very positive about the stock.
Our contributor is taking some major profits on his 2020 Top Pick—triple digits!
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.