Issues
The bulls made it nine straight winning weeks, though the holiday-shortened four-day stretch (markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day) required a burst of earnings firepower to keep the streak alive. Dell Technologies (DELL) and Snowflake (SNOW) both posted blowout results, sparking sympathy rallies across AI-adjacent tech names and giving software stocks in particular a much-needed shot in the arm — the IGV, which we own, broke decisively above its 200-day moving average for the first time this year on Friday.
It’s been a great couple of months for the market and growth stocks, but despite the big run, the vast majority of evidence points to nicely higher prices down the road for the market, and for early-ish stage growth stocks. Near-term, though, it’s hard not to think things have gotten a bit giddy--that’s no reason to sell, but we are picking our spots on the buy side. We still have one-third in cash, but tonight we’ll stand pat and look to put that to work as some better entry points could arise in the next week or two.
As spring turns into summer, cannabis investors will increasingly focus on Department of Justice (DOJ) and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) hearings to consider whether they will reschedule recreational-use cannabis.
I expect cannabis stocks will rise as the June 29 hearing launch gets closer, due to elevated expectations that the rescheduling of medical cannabis creates momentum that will follow through to rec-use cannabis.
I expect cannabis stocks will rise as the June 29 hearing launch gets closer, due to elevated expectations that the rescheduling of medical cannabis creates momentum that will follow through to rec-use cannabis.
I’ll admit to having a bias in favor of precious metals miners. As both an analyst and an investor, I’ve been heavily involved with gold and silver for some 30 years when both metals were widely ignored and trading at multi-decade lows.
I was buying physical gold near its low in the $200s-per-ounce range circa 1997, which later proved to be one of my first successful long-term “turnaround” investment successes. Since that time, I’ve been hooked on the metal as an investment vehicle, not only because of its currency hedging capabilities, but because I view the current phase of the long-wave economic cycle as being quite favorable for the price appreciation potential in gold and other metals.
I was buying physical gold near its low in the $200s-per-ounce range circa 1997, which later proved to be one of my first successful long-term “turnaround” investment successes. Since that time, I’ve been hooked on the metal as an investment vehicle, not only because of its currency hedging capabilities, but because I view the current phase of the long-wave economic cycle as being quite favorable for the price appreciation potential in gold and other metals.
Last week saw the first pothole among most indexes and leading growth stocks, but the reaction to that has been about as bullish as one could hope, with the market in general and leaders in particular rebounding nicely late last week, and again on Tuesday.
Last week saw the first pothole among most indexes and leading growth stocks, but the reaction to that has been about as bullish as one could hope, with the market in general and leaders in particular rebounding nicely late last week, followed by this morning’s gap up. Of course, things are a bit giddy near term, with some indexes and a lot of leaders sticking straight up in the air, but intermediate term, there remain many green lights. We’ll return our Market Monitor to a level 8, but we still favor entering most stocks on minor weakness as moving averages catch up.
This week’s list is mostly growth-oriented, though it’s not all AI. Indeed, our Top Pick is a medical outfit that looks to be re-emerging after a tough early-year correction. Start small and consider adding more on a decisive breakout.
This week’s list is mostly growth-oriented, though it’s not all AI. Indeed, our Top Pick is a medical outfit that looks to be re-emerging after a tough early-year correction. Start small and consider adding more on a decisive breakout.
Stocks are back at new highs, shaking off a relatively short period of malaise. It’s clear that the AI boom is counteracting all the bad news coming out of the Middle East, the Federal Reserve, and elsewhere. The bull market is alive and well, and shows no signs of slowing, sending several of our stocks to new all-time highs this week. Having had our foot on the growth pedal for most of the last couple months, however, today we add a more conservative dividend payer that’s trading at a deep discount. It’s a new recommendation from Tom Hutchinson to his Cabot Dividend Investor audience.
Details inside.
Details inside.
The AI trade is hot again. And it’s spreading.
Initially, it primarily benefited the technology creators, including semiconductor and infrastructure companies. But like any game-changing technology, the benefits spread to other companies.
The next phase of the AI trade is likely in companies that enable and service the technology. This new phase is already evident in the stronger performance of previously lackluster utilities as they accommodate the huge electricity demand increase from AI data centers. AI profits are spreading toward companies that service the equipment and massive data management needs of AI.
In this issue, I highlight a REIT that is experiencing massive demand growth servicing the equipment and records generated by the burgeoning technology. It is making an already reliable income-generating security a growth investment as well. The AI trade isn’t dead. It’s shifting. And this security is in the new sweet spot.
Initially, it primarily benefited the technology creators, including semiconductor and infrastructure companies. But like any game-changing technology, the benefits spread to other companies.
The next phase of the AI trade is likely in companies that enable and service the technology. This new phase is already evident in the stronger performance of previously lackluster utilities as they accommodate the huge electricity demand increase from AI data centers. AI profits are spreading toward companies that service the equipment and massive data management needs of AI.
In this issue, I highlight a REIT that is experiencing massive demand growth servicing the equipment and records generated by the burgeoning technology. It is making an already reliable income-generating security a growth investment as well. The AI trade isn’t dead. It’s shifting. And this security is in the new sweet spot.
As a reminder, this Week in Review is focused on our existing positions as I took the holiday weekend to spend some extra time with the family. Here’s what’s happening with all our trades.
As a reminder, this Week in Review is focused on our existing positions as I took the holiday weekend to spend some extra time with the family. Here’s what’s happening with all our trades.
As a reminder, this Week in Review is focused on our existing positions as I took the holiday weekend to spend some extra time with the family. Here’s what’s happening with all our trades.
Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings yesterday, with $82 billion of quarterly revenue, confirmed the semiconductor supercycle. Another blockbuster quarter and rosy forecasts don’t seem to be pushing the stock upward today. Perhaps there are just too many new AI stories out there capturing the headlines. Overseas, Samsung and other chipmakers are booming, and Samsung now accounts for 25% of South Korea’s annual exports.
Updates
The market’s record run is starting to show signs of fatigue. After powering higher since the March 30 lows, momentum has stalled and breadth has narrowed as a combination of rising yields, higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty begins to weigh on sentiment.
The 10‑year Treasury yield has climbed from roughly 4.23% in mid‑April to 4.48% as of mid-morning today (matching the March high, and highest level since last July), meaning that financing costs are going up just as inflation concerns resurface. April’s CPI and PPI inflation reports both came in hotter than expected.
The 10‑year Treasury yield has climbed from roughly 4.23% in mid‑April to 4.48% as of mid-morning today (matching the March high, and highest level since last July), meaning that financing costs are going up just as inflation concerns resurface. April’s CPI and PPI inflation reports both came in hotter than expected.
The market hit another new high this week. But earnings season is mostly over, and the war just won’t go away.
While there is still headline risk, investors are looking beyond the war. The earnings season has been great. According to FactSet, the average S&P 500 earnings growth rate, with 89% of companies having reported, is 27.7%.
While there is still headline risk, investors are looking beyond the war. The earnings season has been great. According to FactSet, the average S&P 500 earnings growth rate, with 89% of companies having reported, is 27.7%.
If you have the feeling that this year’s boom in the tech sector—and the corresponding record highs in the major averages—isn’t being felt on a market-wide basis, you’re not imagining it.
As it turns out, the record lift in the Nasdaq and S&P is being driven by a troublingly small number of stocks. The result of this narrowing market is that value-focused investors like us have been forced to exercise patience while waiting for the boom to visit our corner of the market (more on that in a minute).
As it turns out, the record lift in the Nasdaq and S&P is being driven by a troublingly small number of stocks. The result of this narrowing market is that value-focused investors like us have been forced to exercise patience while waiting for the boom to visit our corner of the market (more on that in a minute).
WHAT TO DO NOW: Big picture, the market and most leaders look great, and our market timing indicators are in fine shape. Near-term, though, there’s little doubt things have gotten a bit giddy, with many names and indexes extended to the upside. Tonight, we’re placing Cava (CAVA) on Hold as that stock has been caught up in some group weakness; we’ll hold our 45% cash position for now, but stay tuned, as we’d like to add some new names (or add to existing names) in the near future.
What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Alerts
New Ratings for DigitalOcean (DOCN), Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) and FTAI Aviation (FTAI)
Microsoft (MSFT), FTAI Aviation (FTAI), Weatherford (WFRD) and Alamos Gold (AGI) Deliver
The Trump administration today rescheduled cannabis, at least halfway.
* Medical cannabis was rescheduled immediately by a formal order from the Justice Department (DOJ) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).
* Medical cannabis was rescheduled immediately by a formal order from the Justice Department (DOJ) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).
WHAT TO DO NOW: Today we’re going to make one move in the Model Portfolio—selling the rest of our small-ish position in GE Aerospace (GE), but we’ll be looking to put some money to work in the days ahead. Our cash position will be around 53% after the moves. Details below.
Today, a whopping eight Profit Booster positions will expire. Most are “slam-dunk,” full-profit trades, while others will go down to the wire.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
The big takeaway, before we dive in, is we are going to let the situation play itself out, and come Monday/Tuesday of next week we will revisit our profits, as well as how we will manage the remaining positions.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market continues to rush higher, with a lot of good news released today helping the major indexes, though many growth stocks are resting while economically-sensitive names ramp. A short-term wobble is possibly after the last three weeks, and earnings season will surely throw us a few curveballs, but with the evidence turning very strong, we’re putting a bit more money to work today -- we’ll buy a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) today and add a 3% position to our ProShares S&P Fund (SSO), leaving us with 48% in cash. Details below.
Sell Atmus Filtration (ATMU); Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) Moves to Hold
WHAT TO DO NOW: Do some more buying. The evidence has continued to improve, with our Cabot Tides now positive, joining the Aggression Index last week. Of course, this is still a news-driven environment and with many names extended to the upside, there’s risk of an upcoming wobble. But we always go with the evidence, and with more green lights, we’re going to add to our stakes in three names we already own, buying 3% additional stakes in Marvell (MRVL), Dell (DELL) and Macom Tech (MTSI). That will leave us with around 56% in cash, though we’ll likely put more money to work soon if the bulls remain in control.
IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) Delivers Landmark Phase 3 Data
Portfolios
Strategy
Our entire selling philosophy, especially when it comes to growth stocks, revolves around a concept we call “Tight to Loose.” We’re also big fans of a few key chart-based sell signals that tell you a stock is coming under distribution by deep-pocketed investors.
I’ve heard from a few subscribers recently who want to know if it’s time to sell their big winners, like Wynn Reports (WYNN), which is up 48% since I recommended it in April of last year.
Some stocks in the Model Portfolio and others we’ve recommended have had great runs during 2017 but have come under pressure recently. And that’s naturally led to a lot of questions about how exactly to handle big winners, so that’s what we’ll dive into today.
Here are some of the sources that I have found most useful, reliable and unique. One of them may be able to give you a new perspective on some of the stocks you own.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
This report explains my buy, hold and sell opinions for the Standard & Poor’s 11 sectors. In summary, seven sectors should fare quite well during the remainder of 2017, but other sectors will likely perform poorly in the months ahead.
Writing covered calls is a great way to boost your yield on stocks you already own, and involves a lot less risk than most investors think.
Dividend reinvestment is one of the most powerful weapons in the income investor’s toolbox.
The Cabot Emerging Markets Timer measures the intermediate-term trend of emerging markets-related stocks.
If you like the idea of buying low and calmly hanging on...this is the right advisory for you.
Here’s a list of the attributes I seek for any stock I consider for inclusion in Cabot Dividend Investor.
SNaC is the method chief analyst Paul Goodwin uses to choose stocks for the Cabot Emerging Markets Investor