Issues
After weeks of straight-up action, leading stocks finally came under some selling pressure late last week, and it appears more selling is on the way, short-term. We’ve written that such a pullback is likely (you often see peaks and troughs near the 15th of the month of earnings season), so if you’re holding a couple of laggards, now’s the time to kick them out of your portfolio. Longer-term, however, we believe any retreat will result in buying opportunities – our OptiMo stock screening system continues to uncover a wide array of great-looking stocks with even greater-sounding stories. Thus, while you should expect some choppiness in the near-term, you should be putting money to work on weakness. Our favorite idea this week is Aecom Technology (ACM), part of the strong engineering and construction group. It’s a new issue, which helps, and looks like a good buy around here, or on a slight pullback.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ACM (ACM) | 0.00 | ||
| ANW (ANW) | 0.00 | ||
| CRM (CRM) | 0.00 | ||
| FLR (FLR) | 0.00 | ||
| GIGM (GIGM) | 0.00 | ||
| GOLD (GOLD) | 0.00 | ||
| HNSN (HNSN) | 0.00 | ||
| JASO (JASO) | 0.00 | ||
| LVS (LVS) | 0.00 | ||
| VIP (VIP) | 0.00 |
The market continues to perform well, with the market’s leading stocks outperforming the broad market indexes. These are good times, so enjoy them! But remember to guard against complacency; hundreds of earnings reports are about to flood Wall Street, and we’re sure that some leaders will fail, while others will soar. Thus, while the overall bull market shows no sign of ending, the next few weeks will be volatile. This week’s Top Ten contains another well-rounded batch of stocks, with a couple of biotech names highlighting the newfound strength in that sector. Another group that’s quietly improved has been the steel stocks, with Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) leading the way. The stock is in a mild pullback following a powerful breakout in recent weeks. We think it’s buyable around here.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| TKC (TKC) | 0.00 | ||
| ALNY (ALNY) | 0.00 | ||
| AUXL (AUXL) | 0.00 | ||
| CIEN (CIEN) | 0.00 | ||
| FSLR (FSLR) | 0.00 | ||
| HANS (HANS) | 0.00 | ||
| OVTI (OVTI) | 0.00 | ||
| QMAR (QMAR) | 0.00 | ||
| RIMM (RIMM) | 0.00 | ||
| SCHN (SCHN) | 0.00 |
If your portfolio is full of growth or materials stocks, you’re likely a happy camper, as these types of issues are being gobbled up by institutional investors these days. Indeed, we’re glad to see the Nasdaq – a good representation of growth stocks – outperforming the broader S&P 500, a sign that investors are growing more bullish. That’s a good sign for the market as a whole, but remember that with a new quarter underway, earnings season is about to begin, so be prepared for increased volatility (both upside and downside) going forward. This week’s Top Ten contains something for everyone, whether it’s China, oil, chips or even engineering and construction. Our favorite of the week is Focus Media (FMCN), a great growth company that just leaped out from a nice basing structure. It’s already reported earnings, and we think you can buy a little on weakness.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aecom Technology (ACM) | 0.00 | ||
| CMED (CMED) | 0.00 | ||
| Crocs (CROX) | 0.00 | ||
| New Oriental Education (EDU) | 113.97 | ||
| Focus Media Holdings (FMCN) | 0.00 | ||
| Flotek (FTK) | 0.00 | ||
| HANS (HANS) | 0.00 | ||
| OMTR (OMTR) | 0.00 | ||
| OmniVision (OVTI) | 0.00 | ||
| VeriFone Systems, Inc. (PAY) | 0.00 |
Updates
WHAT TO DO NOW: It’s not 2008 out there, but the market environment remains very challenging, especially for growth, where most indexes, funds and stocks are struggling. That said, we have started to see some growth names emerge on the upside, and our watch list is growing—if we can see more than a day or two of strength, we’d like to put some money to work. But until then, we’re content to stay close to shore and patiently wait for growth stocks to get moving. In the Model Portfolio, we’re placing Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) on Hold tonight; our cash position is still just above 50%.
It’s been an interesting week here in Rhode Island, where most people are finally dug out from the roughly three feet of snow that fell across the state Sunday night and into Monday.
Growing up in Vermont, major snowstorms were certainly disruptive. But more often than not, it was all about how we would get to the ski resort without going off the road.
Growing up in Vermont, major snowstorms were certainly disruptive. But more often than not, it was all about how we would get to the ski resort without going off the road.
Hello from sunny Florida!
I am on vacation with my family this week, taking a much-needed break from the harsh, snowy Vermont winter (and narrowly making it down here ahead of the latest blizzard to dump another foot or two of snow on the Northeast). But with so much going on in the market – tariffs rejected! GDP growth slowing! AI panic! – I wanted to provide an update on everything that’s going on with our stocks.
I am on vacation with my family this week, taking a much-needed break from the harsh, snowy Vermont winter (and narrowly making it down here ahead of the latest blizzard to dump another foot or two of snow on the Northeast). But with so much going on in the market – tariffs rejected! GDP growth slowing! AI panic! – I wanted to provide an update on everything that’s going on with our stocks.
It’s the same basic market story as it has been for the last four months. Technology is floundering while other sectors are killing it. But a couple of events occurring this week could potentially change the dynamic.
For value-focused investors, this year’s prologue has been a welcome change from the turmoil experienced in early 2025.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
The market rotation continues to be the main story out there this week, though rumblings of a potential strike on Iran, an update from the January FOMC meeting, and a slew of earnings reports and economic data releases have been giving investors plenty to think about.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
Happy Chinese New Year! The year of the horse is upon us.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
As U.S. investors have shifted from risk-on to risk-off mode in recent months, a clear disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” has materialized.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Cyclical stocks are soaring and technology is floundering in the transformed market.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
Strong fourth-quarter earnings are confirming what the market was already doing.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Like many coffee aficionados, I have something of a love/hate relationship with Starbucks (SBUX). My main gripe is that the company’s food and beverage offerings have always been pricey compared to the fare served in most fast-food restaurants and run-of-the-mill coffee houses.
The outperformance of small caps continues.
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Alerts
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.