Like the broad market, many of the stocks in the portfolio have had a rough time over the past month, as investors have been spooked by fears of inflation and trade wars. But as the end of the year approaches, so does the incentive to take losses for tax purposes, and my optimistic reading is that most of the marijuana stocks have bottomed—though it may take a while for uptrends to be reestablished

The way the markets have been acting, it won’t be a chore to say goodbye to 2018. We’ve avoided the worst of the declines of the second half of the year, but the bears have definitely had the upper hand for months. That’s why I’m featuring an unaccustomed defensive stock in today’s issue.

This volatility is out of sync with the strong economy. Job openings are up, housing starts and building permits are still healthy, and retail sales are enjoying a good holiday romp. But it seems to be politics (as usual) that is driving the market’s gyrations, including the ‘wall’, with Trump threatening to shut the government down due to lack of funding, China’s continued exposure as an international hacker and spy, and the continuing investigation into our leader’s affairs, especially as regards to Russia.

Nevertheless, while short-term sentiment has turned more bearish, long-term, market mavens continue to be bullish, yet expect the volatility to continue.

While there are an endless number of things being talked about and analyzed, keeping it simple is usually better. And with the trends of the major indexes and most stocks pointed down, we remain in a defensive posture—in fact, we’ve had at least 70% cash on the sideline for the past two months.

That said, we’re ready and waiting for the next upturn. In tonight’s issue we continue to massage our watch list, review our three holdings, write about two names that are leaders of new growth “theme” and review a couple of secondary market timing indicators. When the next sustained upmove comes, there will be lots to sink our teeth into, but until then, stay patient.

Last but not least: If you celebrate, have a very Merry Christmas!

I launched Cabot Dividend Investor five years ago to help investors like you build a balanced portfolio of reliable dividend-paying stocks. It’s been a great journey, and I hope you’ve learned a lot and have made some money.
Cabot Dividend Investor isn’t going anywhere, but it’s time for me to move on. I’m excited to pursue new opportunities in the New Year, and I’ll be leaving you in great hands. Tom Hutchinson, the new Chief Analyst of Cabot Dividend Investor, will introduce himself in this month’s issue, with his take on the market and an exciting new stock pick.
But before I turn everything over to Tom, I’m going to wrap up a few loose ends in the portfolio—some things have unraveled a bit over the past month.

One of the things I want you to remember, as the market falls lower and lower and bad news about politics and the economy multiplies, is this: Market tops occur when the news is best, and market bottoms occur when the news is worst. Thus, somewhere ahead is an absolutely terrible news day that will mark the market bottom—but I don’t know where.

What I do know is that it will come, and that the bull market that follows it will be very rewarding, particularly for investors who are prepared for the bull—and I hope that’s you.

Current Market Outlook


The downtrend continues, with the major indexes extending their latest leg lower, with most reaching new lows this morning and some (like the S&P 600 SmallCap) falling more than 20% from their all-time peaks. We continue to keep a very open mind, especially given the horrific sentiment environment that’s emerged—various measures tell us investors are beginning to throw in the towel, which, combined with the fact that we still see many resilient growth stocks means it wouldn’t shock us to see another rally attempt unfold. But that’s speculation at this point—with the trends pointed down for the market and most stocks and sectors, you should remain in a defensive stance, with most of your portfolio in cash and, if you buy, buying just small positions.

This week’s list is another that’s full of stocks we think can do very well if the market can get going. Our Top Pick is Tableau Software (DATA), one of the strongest growth stocks in the market today as big investors buy into its transition to the cloud.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ciena (CIEN)	44.25	32-33.5	29-30.5
Cree, Inc. (CREE)	67.96	42-44	39-40
CyberArk (CYBR)	111.74	68-71	63-64.5
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	125.51	69.5-72	63-64
MarketAxess (MKTX)	439.96	213-218	200-204
PayPal (PYPL)	147.00	82.5-85	77-78
Pinduoduo (PDD)	87.53	21-22.5	17.5-19
Tableau Software (DATA)	126.42	116.5-121	107-109
Twilio (TWLO)	183.39	85-89	75-77
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	32-34	29-30.5

On the one hand, emerging market stocks are extending their bottom-building structure. On the other hand, there aren’t many stocks making huge, “buy me!” runs. But on balance, the news is hopeful, as the October low for EM stocks is proving durable despite continuing trade-war talks and Brexit suspense. There are plenty of hopeful signs, but they haven’t revealed a change of heart on investors part. Read on for some good news and the return of an old friend to the portfolio.

While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.

The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.

The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.

The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.

It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.

With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.

And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.

Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.

For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.

WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.

After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.

Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.

Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.

The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.

The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.

The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.

It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.

Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.

The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.

That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.

After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.

This restaurant company is seeing double-digit revenue and earnings increases, and is growing rapidly via acquisition.

Here are earnings updates on two of our stocks.

This aero-structure company’s EPS forecasts were increased by 13 analysts in the past 30 days.

Here are earnings updates on three of our stocks, and there’s drama at another.

This optic company beat earnings estimates, posting earnings of $1.54 per share, compared to the estimate of $1.32, but shares fell when the company’s third quarter guidance fell short of analysts’ forecasts.

Three stocks move to Hold, one stock moves to the Growth & Income Portfolio, and one stock moves to Strong Buy.

A huge milestone payment added to the winning results for this biotech in its last quarter, and a healthy pipeline and new president promises to keep the company in a fast-growth mode.

The merger has been delayed for a review by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Relations; analysts believe the deal will still occur, which may give time for the stock to rise for a sweeter buyout.

Three of our stocks reported June quarter-end earnings results. Two beat all analysts’ estimates for the quarter, and one boosted full-year revenue expectations.

The top three sectors in this international fund are Technology (23.6% of assets); Financial Services (18.51%) and Healthcare, 15.89%).

Four of our stocks reported earnings, plus a new Buy, a Sell and a rating change.

Stronger than expected results have caused my Min Sell Price for August to rise, so hold your shares until the stock price rises to the new Min Sell Price.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.