Issues
The general trend in emerging market stocks has gone from bad to worse, and we have responded by moving heavily into cash. And although this isn’t as much fun as picking out the big winners from among a stampeding herd of strong stocks, it’s the price we have to pay to play profitably in a volatile market. Today we’re featuring a relatively conservative stock that sports strong fundamentals and a tidy dividend.
The market’s main trends remain up, and thus I remain bullish, while continuing to remind you that a balanced portfolio with attention to risk management is always smart.
Current Market OutlookAfter what was basically a straight-up move for the major indexes and many leading stocks during the past three weeks (including a few names that got out of trend on the upside), big investors came back from the beach today and took some profits. And short-term, further retrenchment is possible, so don’t be surprised to see a few potholes or rotation show up. But bigger picture, the trends of the indexes are pointed up, leading stocks are acting well and we’re pleased to see buying pressures broadening (more new highs) and selling pressure fading (relatively few new lows). It’s still a good idea to pick your spots and take a partial profit or two on the way up, but we remain bullish and see the odds favoring higher prices in the weeks ahead.
This week’s list has a wide mix of stocks and sectors, reflecting the broadening of the market’s advance. Our Top Pick is Semtech (SMTC), a smaller chip maker with a pretty chart and excellent growth.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Allison Transmission (ALSN) | 51.79 | ||
| Ciena (CIEN) | 44.25 | ||
| DSW Inc. (DSW) | 31.82 | ||
| Exact Sciences (EXAS) | 116.91 | ||
| HCA Healthcare (HCA) | 137.60 | ||
| iRobot (IRBT) | 103.17 | ||
| NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) | 242.42 | ||
| Semtech (SMTC) | 51.09 | ||
| Veeva Systems (VEEV) | 180.23 | ||
| Wayfair (W) | 167.03 |
We’re up to 31 stocks in the portfolios, and that’s too many! I’m hoping for a surge in the broader market so that half a dozen of our stocks reach their target prices, and I can then pare back the portfolios a bit.
As marijuana stocks have blasted off over the past couple of weeks, it’s become clear that institutional money is entering the sector—and this is good. We like having institutions confirm our early judgment that the cannabis industry is a great place to invest, probably the greatest growth sector of our time.
The most bullish thing a market can do is hit new highs, and that’s what we’ve seen from this market in recent days, with most indexes and stocks participating on the upside. And with interest rates remaining tame, our dividend stocks have been doing well, too.
All of this is good, though it makes this month’s choice of a featured stock a bit more difficult, as many names are a bit extended to the upside. In the end, I went with a strong stock that gives us leverage to the strong U.S. economy—both the stock and dividend payment are likely to head higher over time.
All of this is good, though it makes this month’s choice of a featured stock a bit more difficult, as many names are a bit extended to the upside. In the end, I went with a strong stock that gives us leverage to the strong U.S. economy—both the stock and dividend payment are likely to head higher over time.
The market overall and growth stocks in particular have shown great improvement during the past two to three weeks, with the major indexes hitting new highs and selling pressure drying up.
Granted, it’s late August, so we’ll see what big investors do when they come back from the beach next week, but given the evidence we’re continuing to put money to work. Tonight, we’re adding one new name, leaving us with around 17% in cash.
Granted, it’s late August, so we’ll see what big investors do when they come back from the beach next week, but given the evidence we’re continuing to put money to work. Tonight, we’re adding one new name, leaving us with around 17% in cash.
The market’s main trends remain up, and thus I remain bullish, while continuing to remind you that a balanced portfolio with attention to risk management is always smart.
Current Market OutlookEver since the mini-blowoff we saw in growth stocks in mid June, the market has been choppy, narrow and tough to maneuver, with many individual stocks going nowhere and a handful of leaders flashing abnormal intermediate-term action. But the character of the market seems to have changed during the past couple of weeks—the day-to-day rotation is gone, leading growth stocks have generally resumed their advances and the major indexes have moved to new highs. It’s still not 1999 out there, of course, and a big factor will be how the market reacts once big investors return from the beach next week. But there’s no question the evidence continues to improve, so we’re bumping up our Market Monitor to a level 8 (out of 10).
This week’s list has a bunch of good setups and great breakouts from growth-oriented stocks. Our Top Pick is Pure Storage (PSTG), which looks like it has recovered from the choppy action of the past few quarters.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Autodesk (ADSK) | 229.00 | ||
| DocuSign (DOCU) | 107.98 | ||
| Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) | 49.89 | ||
| Nordstrom Inc (JWN) | 60.72 | ||
| Novocure (NVCR) | 0.00 | ||
| PetIQ (PETQ) | 30.82 | ||
| Pure Storage (PSTG) | 25.64 | ||
| SailPoint Technologies (SAIL) | 31.60 | ||
| Splunk (SPLK) | 207.67 | ||
| Williams-Sonoma (WSM) | 64.96 |
Updates
What a difference a month can make! What an April! The S&P rose 9.6% in April, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of some skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings. And for good reasons.
The results are in for the month of April. It was fabulous. The S&P rose 9.6%, making it the best single month for the market in six years. It hit an all-time high on Friday.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Sure, the war isn’t over. But the market doesn’t really seem to regard it as a war anymore, more like a blockade situation with the possibility of minor skirmishes. While there is still headline risk, investors have moved beyond this war and are focusing on earnings.
Now before you call me crazy concerning today’s newsletter headline, hear me out.
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
Even though large-cap names have garnered more than a fair share of attention among investors this year, I think a case can be made that companies with big capitalizations have a lot more room to run higher before they can be truly regarded as “overbought” or “played out.”
The market is digesting the push and pull of higher oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve, prospects for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and fading momentum from the AI trade that helped push markets to all‑time highs earlier this month.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Despite the crosscurrents, the overall tone still tilts bullish, supported by investor comfort (for the time being) with the geopolitical tension, resilience in the U.S. economy, and improving visibility into earnings growth over the coming quarters.
Yesterday, four tech giants, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing 22% of the S&P 500’s market value, reported strong quarterly earnings that highlighted the importance of AI.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
You might think the above companies and their AI brethren are “asset light” companies but you would be very wrong.
It’s been a glorious April following a miserable March for the market. What happens in May may determine which direction stocks are headed for the rest of the year.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
That’s probably overstating things a bit, but May should be crucial for the reasons we discussed last week: namely, the fate of the Iran war, but also the bulk of first-quarter earnings season and the introduction of a new Fed chair.
What war? This market is moving on. We may not be out of the woods yet, but investors are looking beyond the Iran war.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
Stocks have already made up all losses from a rough March and then some. The S&P 500 had fallen 7.7% in the month of March by the 30th. Since then, the index has rallied over 13%. The S&P is now at a higher level than before the war began and is hitting new all-time highs.
The other day I was paid a visit by a roving ISP salesman who was pitching his company’s fledgling internet service over the local monopoly’s. We struck up a conversation and he asked what I did for a living. When I told him, his eyes lit up and he asked, “Got any good stocks you can recommend?”
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Without thinking I blurted out, “Anything AI-related. You can’t go wrong.” The advice was only semi-facetious, for there’s undeniably a degree of truth behind it. My instinctive response to that question also prompted me to consider the question: just how long can the broad market continue its “all things AI” run without broader sector participation
Note: I’m out of town this week, so I’ll be a bit briefer on the update today—but I’m still checking my laptop a couple of times a day if you have any questions or comments. I’ll be back at my desk come Monday. Cheers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic. The market and some leaders have hesitated, but all of our market timing indicators are bullish, and most stocks we own or are watching are working. Last Friday, we bought a half-sized stake in Nebius (NBIS) and added a 3% additional stake in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO); earlier this week, we sold our small remaining position in GE Aerospace (GE); and tonight, we’ll buy a half-sized position (5% of the portfolio ) in Cava (CAVA). We’ll still have 46% in cash or so after these moves.
Despite all the headline noise lately we’re marching deeper into first‑quarter earnings season with the market’s path of least resistance still pointing higher.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
Optimism around the extension of the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced geopolitical anxiety to a seemingly manageable level. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, and the corporate earnings outlook points toward meaningful growth in the coming quarters and years.
The old saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is an apt one for the stock market these last two years.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
In early 2025, the S&P 500 raced to new all-time highs before peaking in late January/early February, only to get dragged down in March and April by a geopolitical crisis (tariffs/Liberation Day), before rallying in a V-shaped pattern as the severity of the crisis abated.
The market turned on the afterburners. The S&P 500 made up all the March losses and catapulted to a brand new high in a remarkably short time. It’s a market that sure looks like it wants to go higher. But stocks are being held back this week by more war uncertainty.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
The current ceasefire with Iran expires on Wenesday night. Talks may not happen, and war talk is growing. The resumption of the war will almost certainly prompt a decline in the market. Aside from that near-term threat, investors are clearly looking past this war. Hopefully, it won’t last much longer.
Alerts
This ETF focuses on medium-sized growth companies in the cyber security space—a fast-growing arena.
The stronger global economies are allowing central banks to abandon economic stimulus efforts and attempt to return to more normal interest rates. The turnaround overseas has caused the U.S. dollar to fall, which will likely continue during the next couple of years.
We have a few portfolio stocks that warrant attention this week, amid an ongoing sector rotation. Money is flowing out of overvalued tech stocks into quite a variety of undervalued industries.
Still growing at double-digit rates, this tech giant’s earnings forecasts for this year were increased by two analysts.
Wall Street expects this pharma company to grow by double-digits over the next five years. The shares recently crossed over their 50-day moving average, a bullish indicator.
This medical device maker just received FDA approval for its INSPIRIS RESILIA aortic valve, the first in a new class of resilient heart valves.
This biotech stock is rated ‘Buy’ by Zacks, based on excellent cash flow and momentum.
Although still in its turnaround phase, this footwear maker beat analysts’ earnings estimates by eight cents last quarter.
Earnings recently drove this Top Pick’s price down, so we are selling the stock and taking our profits.
Growth stocks were pummeled today, reversing yesterday’s rebound and driving the Nasdaq to its 50-day line. At day’s end, the Dow lost 168 points and the Nasdaq closed down 90 points.
As expected, the Federal Reserve reported on the capital plans of 34 U.S. banks yesterday, following the annual stress test. Of the dozen banks that I reviewed, here are the best stocks to buy today:
This mega-tech company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.34 last quarter. But since the shares have risen in the double-digits, the stock is now a ‘hold’.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.