Issues
With the MSCI Emerging Markets Index headed steeply down since June 13, we have been moving quickly to cut our exposure and kick losers out of our portfolio. It’s not pleasant, but it’s the only way to stay profitable in a volatile sector like emerging market stocks. Today’s bounce in the markets was a welcome relief from the selling pressure, but we will discount the good news until the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer gives us the all-clear.
The market rolled over this week, but it’s too early to say if it’s the start of another correction or just some turbulence. Either way, we’re well prepared, with exposure to a broad range of sectors, including some benefiting from the uncertainty.
As to this week’s stock, once again I’m trying to buy low, with a recommendation of Crista Huff that should soon see improved earnings thanks to last year’s huge merger.
Current Market OutlookMay and June were generally great for leading stocks, but some yellow flags began to appear during the past couple of weeks—the major indexes were showing widening divergences, sentiment reached giddy levels and some stocks (like many recent IPOs) went vertical. Some sort of retreat was likely, but the severity of the selling in recent days looks abnormal; many stocks are pulling back after big runs, but a bunch of others are cracking, and the lagging indexes look sick—the NYSE Composite is below its 200-day line! We don’t advise hitting the panic button, as most indexes and stocks are still above intermediate-term support, so you can hold your strong, profitable stocks. But given the evidence, it’s smart to pare back—honor your stops and loss limits, and on the buy side, keep new positions small until support appears.
This week’s list has stocks that have been yanked down recently, but the action looks normal after strong prior advances. Our Top Pick is Carvana (CVNA), which is early stage and holding up well after a big run. Again, keep new positions small and try to buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana (CVNA) | 82.90 | ||
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | 63.82 | ||
| Darden Restaurants (DRI) | 106.63 | ||
| Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) | 35.25 | ||
| Illumina Inc. (ILMN) | 289.74 | ||
| Spotify (SPOT) | 272.82 | ||
| Stitch Fix (SFIX) | 36.79 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| Turtle Beach (HEAR) | 26.70 | ||
| Wix.com (WIX) | 302.53 |
The market’s evidence remains mostly bullish, so we do, too, but it’s a selective advance—most indexes are doing just OK, but growth-oriented stocks and sectors have put on a great show. In the near-term, there are signs of exuberance, and while that doesn’t mean you should sell your strong stocks, it is a sign to keep your feet on the ground.
In the Model Portfolio, most of our stocks are performing well, but we’re standing pat for the moment, holding about 20% in cash as we look for solid entry points in fresh leading stocks.
In tonight’s issue, we review the market, all of our stocks and even write about one growth sector that’s showing extreme power of late—we already own two of the leaders in the group, but many look great. We also touch on the sentiment backdrop, while highlighting a few potential new buys if things settle down a bit.
In the Model Portfolio, most of our stocks are performing well, but we’re standing pat for the moment, holding about 20% in cash as we look for solid entry points in fresh leading stocks.
In tonight’s issue, we review the market, all of our stocks and even write about one growth sector that’s showing extreme power of late—we already own two of the leaders in the group, but many look great. We also touch on the sentiment backdrop, while highlighting a few potential new buys if things settle down a bit.
We were having a pretty good month on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, until the trade tariffs issue raised its ugly head again. That consternation has driven the markets back to their month-ago trading levels—after a 1,000 point or so gain. While short-term trading is volatile again, most market insiders remain very bullish, as you’ll see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer and in our Market View.
Calling market tops is impossible, but leaning against the wind is something you learn after a while, if you pay attention. So today, with many of our stocks once again hitting or near new highs, I’m leaning into the wind by selling one and downgrading another to hold.
As for new buying, today’s recommendation comes straight from Cabot Top Ten Trader. It’s an underappreciated retail stock that surged higher on a great earnings report two weeks ago and has since pulled back to what I think is a great entry point.
As for new buying, today’s recommendation comes straight from Cabot Top Ten Trader. It’s an underappreciated retail stock that surged higher on a great earnings report two weeks ago and has since pulled back to what I think is a great entry point.
Current Market OutlookWe have a few main thoughts when it comes to the market. First, of course, the intermediate-term trend remains up, and most stocks are acting well, thus we continue to advise a bullish stance. Second, though, divergent action is still in evidence, with small caps and growth stocks racing up the charts, while many sectors and indexes (the NYSE Composite is down 1% this year!) are stuck in the mud. And third, we’ve seen a bit of froth emerge, with some IPOs and other growth names going vertical, whether it’s on news or not. Like we said, we remain bullish—it’s hard not to be when the leading indexes (Nasdaq, S&P 600 SmallCap) and stocks are acting well. That said, given some of the froth we see out there, be sure to keep your feet on the ground, looking for decent entry points and taking some partial profits on the way up.
This week’s list is chock-full of rapidly growing companies with super-strong charts. Our Top Pick is Nutanix (NTNX), which blasted off in March and, after months of up-and-down action, looks to be resuming its uptrend here.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) | 46.21 | ||
| Dropbox (DBX) | 31.80 | ||
| Etsy (ETSY) | 112.97 | ||
| Exact Sciences (EXAS) | 116.91 | ||
| HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) | 70.70 | ||
| HubSpot (HUBS) | 582.89 | ||
| Inogen (INGN) | 210.84 | ||
| Nutanix (NTNX) | 55.91 | ||
| RH Inc. (RH) | 252.93 | ||
| Twilio (TWLO) | 183.39 |
Updates
For value-focused investors, this year’s prologue has been a welcome change from the turmoil experienced in early 2025.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
The market rotation continues to be the main story out there this week, though rumblings of a potential strike on Iran, an update from the January FOMC meeting, and a slew of earnings reports and economic data releases have been giving investors plenty to think about.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
Happy Chinese New Year! The year of the horse is upon us.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
As U.S. investors have shifted from risk-on to risk-off mode in recent months, a clear disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” has materialized.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Cyclical stocks are soaring and technology is floundering in the transformed market.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
Strong fourth-quarter earnings are confirming what the market was already doing.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Like many coffee aficionados, I have something of a love/hate relationship with Starbucks (SBUX). My main gripe is that the company’s food and beverage offerings have always been pricey compared to the fare served in most fast-food restaurants and run-of-the-mill coffee houses.
The outperformance of small caps continues.
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Let’s talk about the power of staying invested.
Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.
Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.
NOTE: We’re sending this a day early as I’m soon to embark on a trip with the kiddos over the next week. I will be working a good amount from the road, though, and will have updates if need be. Also, next week’s issue will be published as scheduled.
==
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.
==
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.
Today could be a big day for cannabis stocks.
The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.
Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.
The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.
Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.
I’m excited to share a couple of enhancements to Cabot Early Opportunities —improvements designed to sharpen our focus and better help you stay on top of the stocks we own.
Alerts
Still growing at double-digit rates, this tech giant’s earnings forecasts for this year were increased by two analysts.
Wall Street expects this pharma company to grow by double-digits over the next five years. The shares recently crossed over their 50-day moving average, a bullish indicator.
This medical device maker just received FDA approval for its INSPIRIS RESILIA aortic valve, the first in a new class of resilient heart valves.
This biotech stock is rated ‘Buy’ by Zacks, based on excellent cash flow and momentum.
Although still in its turnaround phase, this footwear maker beat analysts’ earnings estimates by eight cents last quarter.
Earnings recently drove this Top Pick’s price down, so we are selling the stock and taking our profits.
Growth stocks were pummeled today, reversing yesterday’s rebound and driving the Nasdaq to its 50-day line. At day’s end, the Dow lost 168 points and the Nasdaq closed down 90 points.
As expected, the Federal Reserve reported on the capital plans of 34 U.S. banks yesterday, following the annual stress test. Of the dozen banks that I reviewed, here are the best stocks to buy today:
This mega-tech company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.34 last quarter. But since the shares have risen in the double-digits, the stock is now a ‘hold’.
A new dividend payment makes our Top Pick very attractive, and our contributor has added a new Mid-Year Top Pick.
A new dividend payment makes our Top Pick very attractive, and our contributor has added a new Mid-Year Top Pick.
Based on new data and improved prospects, I have raised my Min Sell Price for Gilead Sciences to 79.79 from 71.83.
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.