Issues
The latest issue of Cabot Marijuana Investor is now available, with my current advice on the sixteen stocks in the portfolio.
The gains so far this year, in both the sector and the portfolio, have been absolutely spectacular, but they won’t continue. Already I detect signs of a rolling correction and there’s the possibility that short-term, it could get worse. So in this issue, I have some sell recommendations, for investors who are working to develop maximum gains.
For longer-term, more patient investors, however, doing nothing is fine. The long-term prospects for both the industry and the sector remain bright.
The gains so far this year, in both the sector and the portfolio, have been absolutely spectacular, but they won’t continue. Already I detect signs of a rolling correction and there’s the possibility that short-term, it could get worse. So in this issue, I have some sell recommendations, for investors who are working to develop maximum gains.
For longer-term, more patient investors, however, doing nothing is fine. The long-term prospects for both the industry and the sector remain bright.
The market has slowed down just a touch in recent days, with the major indexes hesitating near some resistance. But the trends remain strongly up (our Cabot Trend Lines has joined the bull camp) and individual stocks are acting well, including many reacting well to earnings. Of course, pullbacks are definitely possible, so now’s not a time to jump in with both feet. But we continue to be bullish and to put money steadily to work.
In tonight’s issue, we discuss all our stocks, and take a peek at one of the market’s leading themes, which looks like it could go far as the bull market picks up speed.
In tonight’s issue, we discuss all our stocks, and take a peek at one of the market’s leading themes, which looks like it could go far as the bull market picks up speed.
In this issue, I identify the bluest of blue chip energy infrastructure stocks at a dirt cheap price with a 6% yield. Business is booming and it is only a matter of time until the market starts rewarding the stock.
All Cabot’s market timing indicators have now flashed green lights, so I continue to recommend that you work to get more invested.
With today’s recommendation, we return to the U.S. with a medical technology stock that addresses a mass market and is growing fast—though it’s not booking profits yet.
With today’s recommendation, we return to the U.S. with a medical technology stock that addresses a mass market and is growing fast—though it’s not booking profits yet.
Current Market OutlookLast week made it nine weeks in a row for most major indexes, and also brought another bullish “blastoff” signal (90% of NYSE stocks rose above their 50-day line), which portends nicely higher prices three to nine months down the road. As for the question on everyone’s mind (when will we get a pullback?), there is a growing chance of a short-term dip, partially due to lots of good news hitting the wires (such as today’s tariff delay). That said, pinpointing short-term moves is a tough game and rarely helps you make good money over time—the key is sticking with the major trend (up) and focusing on leading stocks and proper setups. Overall, we remain open to anything, but just going with the evidence, you should be mostly bullish.
This week’s list has a mix of stocks and sectors, from retail to medical to Internet. A bunch of the names look good, but for our Top Pick, we’ll go with Trade Desk (TTD), which looks like a real leading glamour stock. Try to buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalara (AVLR) | 102.00 | ||
| Boot Barn (BOOT) | 43.24 | ||
| Dine Brands (DIN) | 93.05 | ||
| Invitae (NVTA) | 32.06 | ||
| iRhythm Technologies (IRTC) | 51.15 | ||
| Match (MTCH) | 0.00 | ||
| SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. (SSNC) | 63.56 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| Wayfair (W) | 167.03 | ||
| Yeti Holdings (YETI) | 42.80 |
We’ve had an up and down week for emerging markets with a big day yesterday followed by weakness today. Our EEM signal stays positive so we are adding a half position today and moving one stock from buy to hold.
With today’s recommendation, I leave the U.S. to return to the fast-growing giant that China has become, with a company that will join Tesla in the fast-growing electric car industry. It’s a low-priced stock, so it’s not for everyone, but it does have enormous growth potential.
Current Market OutlookThe overall action from the major indexes and leading stocks remains about as good as you could hope for considering we’re two months off a major bottom—we’re nudging up our Market Monitor another notch (to 8) in this issue to respect the continued improvement in the overall evidence. That said, after a strong eight-week run, we’re starting to see a bit of greed set in, as well as a bit of rotation, with some left-behind areas (like energy and regional banks) perking up. To be clear, such action is not negative—if anything, it’s probably a good thing—but it could lead to some ups and downs among individual stocks and sectors, especially those that have had good runs. Overall, though, you should continue to put money to work as opportunities arise.
This week’s list is still heavy on growth, though with a couple of new areas popping up, too. Our Top Pick is Chart Industries (GTLS), a little-known name that looks like a great way to play the booming LNG infrastructure area.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chart Industries (GTLS) | 72.05 | ||
| Chegg (CHGG) | 74.21 | ||
| CyberArk (CYBR) | 111.74 | ||
| Guardant Health (GH) | 88.34 | ||
| Incyte Corporation (INCY) | 76.98 | ||
| iRobot (IRBT) | 103.17 | ||
| Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) | 423.92 | ||
| Okta, Inc. (OKTA) | 148.41 | ||
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 468.02 | ||
| TransDigm (TDG) | 599.41 |
Updates
While flashier, more star-studded teams like Lionel Messi’s Argentina, Kylian Mbappe’s France and Erling Haaland’s Norway garnered most of the headlines at the just-completed World Cup, Spain was the best team. There was nothing flashy about Spain: no mega-stars, not a ton of goals, no relentless attack. Instead, they dominated the tournament with precision passing, immaculate ball control and near-impenetrable (just one goal allowed all tournament!) defense.
The market rolls sideways amidst a slew of conflicting forces.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The S&P 500 has bounced around and is at the same level it was in the middle of May. The primary culprit is technology. That sector has been in a funk. The S&P 500 is hard-pressed to generate any lasting traction while this massive sector, accounting for over 40% of the index, flounders.
The market has gone sideways since May. It seems to be deciding what to do.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
It’s encouraging that the resumption of hostilities with Iran has not sent the market lower. It’s also positive that oil prices aren’t rising back to the $100 level earlier in the war, although prices have risen. It’s also another earnings season and analysts expect a big one.
With war being one of the most dominant themes of the last four years, it stands to reason that investors should position their portfolios to account for this conspicuous (and unwelcome) trend.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
And lest one be tempted to think that the warfare theme will diminish anytime soon, last week’s article by NPR deflates that illusion: It revealed that global military conflicts are at their highest level since WWII.
Price targets are standard practice on Wall Street. But sometimes, they can act as an artificial ceiling.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
For example, say Truist sets a price target on an up-and-coming growth stock that’s 25% higher than its current share price. For a growth stock, a 25% return isn’t much. But then again, the stock could be a total flop, which is the natural boom-or-bust tradeoff growth investors must endure in trading off increased risk for massive upside. So, a price target on a growth stock seems almost like an unnecessary cap on a stock that has the potential to go through the roof.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to trim your sails. In the Model Portfolio, we’ve been getting closer and closer to shore as growth funds and indexes are under pressure and AI stocks cascade lower. Tonight we’re going to further trim Marvell (MRVL) given its ugly action, selling a third of what we have left. That will leave the portfolio with a big 58% cash position. We could put some of that to work if growth names find support, but we want to see key growth measures firm up before buying.
After a brief pause last week, small caps are once again leading the pack.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up roughly 21% year to date, compared to gains of about 15% for the S&P 400 MidCap Index, 17% for the Nasdaq and 11% for the S&P 500.
Its earnings season again! That’s a good thing. Earnings just might save the day in an otherwise confusing and uncertain market.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The market is causing whiplash. The Iran peace deal changed things. Stocks held back by high oil prices, and the resulting higher inflation and interest rates, reignited as oil prices came back down after the peace deal. But hostilities with Iran have resumed.
The peace deal may be on hold again. But stocks are hanging in there so far.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
The ceasefire with Iran is over and hostilities have resumed. That sounds like a bigger bummer than it’s been in the market so far. Falling oil prices enabled previously beleaguered stocks to soar higher again as the prognosis for inflation and interest rates simultaneously improved. But that rally is over if oil prices spike higher again.
It’s no surprise that summer often brings lower market volatility levels as Wall Street heads to the Hamptons and participation rates diminish.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
Indeed, what we’re seeing right now has all the classic symptoms of a low-participation environment, with investor sentiment being remarkably muted. This can be seen across a number of sentiment indicators for several different markets, most of which are flashing decisively “neutral” signals.
The divide between value and growth stocks is widening, as the Nasdaq is now more than 5% off its highs after peaking in early June while the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) is hovering near its late-June apex and is up 3% in the last month.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
That can flip in an instant, of course, as we saw in April and May. But the bottom line is that value stocks have risen 15% year to date, compared to an 11% gain in the Nasdaq and a 9.5% boost in the S&P 500.
After a very strong run from the March lows, the market appears to be going through an uncomfortable but healthy rotation. Many of the biggest winners from the AI and semiconductor trade have come under pressure, while value stocks, equal-weight indexes and other areas that had lagged earlier in the year have held up much better.
Alerts
Here’s an update on a few of our stocks.
Wall Street analysts are expecting 50% annual growth over the next five years for this IoT company.
Loop Capital and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey just upgraded the shares of this mega-tech company to ‘Buy’.
Today brought a wave of selling that took the major market indexes (and most of the stock in our portfolio) down a peg or two. Despite the selloff, most of our stocks remain in their recent trading ranges and look like they will do just fine unless the market takes another leap off the end of the dock tomorrow.
The market and especially leading growth stocks were trounced today. In response, we’re selling half our shares in two stocks.
Shares of one of our stocks have been under pressure since Friday due to a short attack from a Seeking Alpha author. His article was published this morning, but I suspect a group of investors knew about it on Friday and got the action going early.
This tech stock’s relative strength was just upgraded by IBD. The company beat analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.04 in its latest quarter.
This healthcare stock beat analysts’ estimates by six cents last quarter, and analysts are forecasting double-digit growth for the company for the next five years.
Trade suggestion for Chevron (CVX) shareholders, and additional news and price changes on six other stocks.
This solar company was just upgraded to ‘Buy’ by Cabot and by Deutsche Bank, and Deutsche raised its price target for the stock to $65 per share (from $50).
This energy company’s shares just crossed above their 50-day moving average, a bullish sign.
Here’s the update on one of our stocks. The company’s earnings outlook changed after I recommended it.
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.