Issues
Market trends remain quite positive, and I continue to recommend that you work to get more invested. According to our market timing indicators, the odds are still very good that months from now, the market will be higher.
Today’s recommendation is a well-known medical stock that’s temporarily a bargain, chosen for both diversification and the fact that the broad market, which has surged higher since Christmas, is due for a real correction.
Today’s recommendation is a well-known medical stock that’s temporarily a bargain, chosen for both diversification and the fact that the broad market, which has surged higher since Christmas, is due for a real correction.
Today I’m highlighting three different types of trading opportunities: buying stocks in the days leading up to earnings reports, buying stocks when they fall a silly amount on neutral or good news, and putting great stocks on watch as we await pullbacks. There are many changes in Buy recommendations today, reflecting both dramatic changes in year-to-date price action and significant earnings revisions as Wall Street contemplates final 2018 numbers and solidifies their 2019 earnings projections. I’m not trying to be fickle! I’m just trying to stay on top of the facts so that you can have a clear idea of where tomorrow’s profitable opportunities can be found.
Current Market OutlookIt’s been six weeks since the market bottomed, and the evidence since then has steadily improved—whether it was the blast off from the lows (2-to-1 Blastoff Indicator), the lack of any sustained selling since, the amazing upside breadth or the increasing number of setups and breakouts among growth stocks, it’s all been going the bulls’ way. Of course, now that the market has basically marched ahead for six weeks, things could easily get trickier; even some intermediate-term measures (84% of NYSE stocks above their 50-day lines) are stretched. That’s no reason to worry (longer-term, such power is probably a good sign), but we’d be looking to buy mostly on dips, though we’re still interested in the occasional earnings breakout, too. And, as things head higher, don’t forget to book some partial profits along the way. We’re bumping up our Market Monitor another notch tonight.
This week’s list is another diverse set of stocks that are acting well. Our Top Pick is Entegris (ENTG), where an upcoming merger (and a uptick in the chip group) has investors piling in.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Boeing (BA) | 432.22 | ||
| Cree, Inc. (CREE) | 67.96 | ||
| CyberArk (CYBR) | 111.74 | ||
| Elastic (ESTC) | 86.17 | ||
| Entegris (ENTG) | 48.08 | ||
| ServiceNow (NOW) | 341.86 | ||
| Smartsheet (SMAR) | 44.12 | ||
| Spirit Airlines (SAVE) | 57.03 | ||
| Woodward (WWD) | 111.91 | ||
| Zscaler (ZS) | 126.22 |
Today I am fulfilling your dreams and profiling a company that specializes in tax collection. Three cheers for taxes!
Seriously, nobody likes taxes. With the exception of state treasurers. Taxes are just one of those parts of life that you’d prefer to ignore. But if you’re a retailer you can’t do that. In fact, retailers across the U.S. - and the world for that matter – have to devote more and more attention to sales tax compliance.
That’s the big picture trend powering one company’s growth. All the details are inside this month’s Issue. And I promise, it’s going to be more interesting than you think!
Seriously, nobody likes taxes. With the exception of state treasurers. Taxes are just one of those parts of life that you’d prefer to ignore. But if you’re a retailer you can’t do that. In fact, retailers across the U.S. - and the world for that matter – have to devote more and more attention to sales tax compliance.
That’s the big picture trend powering one company’s growth. All the details are inside this month’s Issue. And I promise, it’s going to be more interesting than you think!
Investment management companies, which manage mutual funds and other investments on behalf of individuals, pensions and other clients, have fallen sharply out of favor. As contrarians, we think there is still good value in these companies.
In this issue, we cover eight managers whose weak shares offer attractive valuations and dividend yields.
In this issue, we cover eight managers whose weak shares offer attractive valuations and dividend yields.
The market has been acting in a near picture-perfect manner for the past few weeks, and we’ve responded by steadily adding to our exposure—we put 15% of our cash to work in early January, another 20% last week when our Cabot Tides turned positive, and tonight we’re adding one new (but familiar) name to the Model Portfolio, leaving us with around 35% on the sideline. There are still headwinds (like our Cabot Trend Lines being negative), so we’re not flooring the accelerator, but as the evidence has improved, we’ve grown more optimistic. Tonight’s issue goes over all our current stocks (including tonight’s new addition), and details a better way to “buy low” than most investors use.
The past month has been very profitable for investors in the sector, as stocks rallied off their December lows and climbed strongly through January, with several hitting new highs as I write. In general, I recommend that you enjoy the trend; the long-term prospects remain bright.
But short-term, there are opportunities for fine-tuning and risk reduction, and thus I have a few recommended changes in today’s issue, as well as one new addition, a company thriving in the booming CBD market.
But short-term, there are opportunities for fine-tuning and risk reduction, and thus I have a few recommended changes in today’s issue, as well as one new addition, a company thriving in the booming CBD market.
In this issue I identify a fast-growing biopharmaceutical company that will benefit as the changing population demands better healthcare than ever before. It is well established with a high dividend yield and poised in front of the wave at the cutting edge of medical innovation.
Market trends remain quite positive, and I continue to recommend that you work to get more invested. Months from now, the market will be higher.
As for today’s recommendation, it’s a dirt-cheap dividend-payer in the energy industry that may not get going right away, but downside risk looks minimal and all the fundamentals argue that it will eventually be higher.
As for today’s recommendation, it’s a dirt-cheap dividend-payer in the energy industry that may not get going right away, but downside risk looks minimal and all the fundamentals argue that it will eventually be higher.
Current Market OutlookToday’s news centered around earnings duds from a couple of big names (Caterpillar and Nvidia), causing the major indexes to take some hits. But stepping back a bit, we’re not seeing anything abnormal—since the start of last week, the major indexes have slipped 1.5% (ballpark) and most leading stocks are acting just fine. Of course, further dips in the short-term are certainly possible given that the Nasdaq ran 1,000 points from its Christmas Eve low, earnings season is revving up and most stocks have plenty of overhead to battle. Even so, the intermediate-term trend remains pointed up and, in general, the market and leading stocks continue to act how they “should” if the sellers have run out of ammo. We remain optimistic, and think many names will be good buys if we do see some more retrenchment.
Tonight’s list has a great batch of mostly growth stocks, albeit from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is Lululemon (LULU), which, after a great six-month run and fourth-quarter correction, is showing terrific strength. Try to buy on dips.
| Stock Name | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciena (CIEN) | 44.25 | ||
| EPAM Systems (EPAM) | 188.24 | ||
| Exact Sciences (EXAS) | 116.91 | ||
| Lululemon Athletica (LULU) | 304.69 | ||
| Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) | 104.98 | ||
| ServiceNow (NOW) | 341.86 | ||
| Shopify (SHOP) | 585.00 | ||
| Splunk (SPLK) | 207.67 | ||
| Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) | 18.41 | ||
| Xilinx (XLNX) | 134.50 |
Updates
For value-focused investors, this year’s prologue has been a welcome change from the turmoil experienced in early 2025.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
In just the past few weeks, some of last year’s most ignored or underappreciated laggards have posted outsized gains, with rallies that have made even momentum-driven tech stock traders envious. Even more remarkable is the fact that much of that strength has been concentrated in ultra-defensive areas of the market like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare.
The market rotation continues to be the main story out there this week, though rumblings of a potential strike on Iran, an update from the January FOMC meeting, and a slew of earnings reports and economic data releases have been giving investors plenty to think about.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
In terms of the rotation, the equal‑weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is up 5.5% so far this year, illustrating that leadership is broadening beyond the narrow group of mega‑cap stocks that drove much of last year’s performance.
Year to date, the S&P 600 SmallCap Index is up 8.3% and the S&P 400 Mid‑Cap Index is up 7.9%. Both are comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 0.1%, and the Nasdaq, which is down 2.1%.
Happy Chinese New Year! The year of the horse is upon us.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
China is expecting an incredible 9.5 billion trips to be made during the 40-day Lunar New Year travel period. Chinese automakers are also on the move as the country’s numerous brands sold nearly 200,000 vehicles in Britain last year, doubling their market share to almost 10%.
As U.S. investors have shifted from risk-on to risk-off mode in recent months, a clear disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” has materialized.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Let’s start with the “have-nots.” Financials have fared the worst so far this year (-4.7%), followed by technology (-3.1%), communication services and consumer discretionary (-2.8% each). The downturn in the two tech-related sectors in particular is a stark departure from recent years, when technology led the charge of the current bull market.
Cyclical stocks are soaring and technology is floundering in the transformed market.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
The bull market is turned upside down. For most of the first three years, technology, and particularly AI stocks, soared while most other stocks did very little. Now, previously meandering stocks are killing it while technology sinks.
Strong fourth-quarter earnings are confirming what the market was already doing.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Current estimates based on earnings reported so far are for 13.2% overall S&P earnings growth for the quarter. It’s a solid quarter and the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In terms of sector performance, cyclical companies are killing it, and technology is floundering, just like before earnings.
Like many coffee aficionados, I have something of a love/hate relationship with Starbucks (SBUX). My main gripe is that the company’s food and beverage offerings have always been pricey compared to the fare served in most fast-food restaurants and run-of-the-mill coffee houses.
The outperformance of small caps continues.
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Through Tuesday’s close, the S&P 600 is up 10% year to date versus just 1.6% for the S&P 500.
All but three small-cap sectors are outperforming their large-cap counterpart. The strongest small-cap sectors are materials (+20%), energy (+23%), industrials (+17%), and tech (+11.4%).
Let’s talk about the power of staying invested.
Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.
Sure, when the market turns south – and I’m not even sure last week’s mini-dip qualifies – it makes sense to pare back on your weakest stocks and put a larger portion of your portfolio in cash. But taking your ball and going home – selling out of all of your stocks when times are tough – is not a winning strategy. Here’s why.
NOTE: We’re sending this a day early as I’m soon to embark on a trip with the kiddos over the next week. I will be working a good amount from the road, though, and will have updates if need be. Also, next week’s issue will be published as scheduled.
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WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.
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WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains very mixed, with growth measures still generally pointed sideways to down, while the broad market remains in solid shape. What’s interesting, though, is that we’re seeing more growth stocks kick into gear, along with some huge buying action in a few “cyclical growth” names. Tonight we’re making one move—adding a half-sized stake in Macom Tech (MTSI)—but are keeping our eyes open for a broader character change among growth stocks. Our cash position will be around 53%.
Today could be a big day for cannabis stocks.
The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.
Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.
The reason: We may get an important update on the rescheduling timeline.
Cannabis investors will be watching closely today to see whether Attorney General Pam Bondi offers a rescheduling update when she appears before the House Judiciary Committee. Upbeat comments could spark a sharp cannabis sector rally. The hearing starts at 10 a.m. EST.
I’m excited to share a couple of enhancements to Cabot Early Opportunities —improvements designed to sharpen our focus and better help you stay on top of the stocks we own.
Alerts
This homebuilder is enjoying a busy housing market, and beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.07 last quarter
Our first idea, a specialty retailer, beat analysts’ EPS estimates by five cents a share last quarter, and 16 analysts have increased their earnings forecasts in the past 30 days.
Our second recommendation is partial profit-taking.
Analysts are expecting this healthcare tech company to grow by 16.53% annually for the next five years.
This health insurer beat Wall Street’s estimates by $0.11 last quarter.
While not yet profitable, this Chinese data center business is growing exponentially.
With recent U.S. anti-dumping investigations against China, particularly for aluminum sheets, as well as China’s clampdown on illegal and polluting facilities that could reduce production, things might be looking up for U.S. aluminum producers.
The top five sectors of this emerging markets fund are: Technology (29.77% of assets); Financial Services (18.52%), Consumer Cyclical (15.94%), Consumer Defensive (9.35%) and Industrials (7.40%).
The top five holdings of this conservative income fund are Tmcc Mstr 1wkl+35 12/06/17 P/P(1.33% of assets); Sumitomo Mitsui Bkg FRN (1.07%); Australia & New Zeala Bkg FRN (1.00%); Bk Amer FRN (0.94%) and Ing Bk Nv 144A FRN (0.93%).
There was significant share price action in two of out stocks today.
Six analysts have increased their earnings forecast for this energy company in the past 30 days.
Portfolios
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.