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In the August Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we continue to lean into the market rally, be it bear market rally or new bull. We step up to the plate with a partial position in a biotech stock I’ve been eying, jump into a rapid-growth security software name and also a fintech company in a recovering industry. Two more conservative growth ideas are added to our Watch List and may fit the bill down the road should the market soften.
Enjoy!

Current Market Outlook


Greece continues to dominate the headlines, and this weekend’s “No” vote hit the market and most stocks, though nothing as dramatic as what we saw last week. That said, you shouldn’t overreact to today’s action, just as it wasn’t smart to overreact to last Monday’s drubbing. Overall, we’re still neutral, as the main trend remains sideways, and we expect further volatility based on the news of the day. Our biggest piece of advice is to take things on a stock-by-stock basis—many stocks are acting well, and you should hold onto those, but don’t hesitate to dump shares of stocks if they break key support.

Encouragingly, this week’s list contains a lot of resilient, growth-oriented stocks … just the kind of potential leadership we like to see setting up. Our Top Pick is Horizon Pharmaceuticals (HZNP), which is acting like it wants to get going should the market hold together.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Wayfair (W)	167.03	35-37	32-33
Valero Energy (VLO)	97.40	63-65	58-59
Receptos (RCPT)	0.00	186-195	165-170
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	94-97	87-88
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP)	49.89	33.5-35	30-31
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY)	70.70	30-32	27.5-28
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)	0.00	64-67	61-62
Celanese (CE)	0.00	70-73	66-67
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)	0.00	137-139	122-124
Acuity Brands (AYI)	0.00	183-188	175-176

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes continue to whip around, with last Monday’s dip followed by a strong recovery, and now a renewed drop. By our measures, the intermediate-term uptrend is on the fence, and it’s clear that large chunks of the broad market are falling apart (gold, silver and oil shares are especially weak). And, at the very least, it’s obvious the environment remains very choppy and making big money is difficult. Of course, we’ve seen repeated shakeouts followed by recoveries, but the evidence tells us to pull in our horns; we’re shifting the Market Monitor back toward neutral while we wait for the buyers to return.

When doing buying, the key is to focus on what’s working and this week’s list has a good batch to consider. Our Top Pick is Parexel (PRXL), a steady grower in the medical testing field that is just getting going after a couple of big corrections during the past year.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
XPO Logistics (XPO)	0.00	36-38	33.5-34.5
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	0.00	23-24.5	21.5-22
Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP)	0.00	155-160	144-146
Charles Schwab (SCHW)	0.00	29-30	27.5-28
Parexel Corp. (PRXL)	0.00	59-61	55-56
Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH)	0.00	35.5-37	33.5-34
Gilead Sciences (GILD)	75.10	101-105	94-96
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)	0.00	35.5-37	32.5-33
Spansion (CODE)	0.00	22-23	20.5-21
Archer Daniels (ADM)	0.00	50-51	47-48

Current Market Outlook


The breakdown of the Greek debt negotiations hit the markets this morning before some support appeared (partially on news that Greek talks were back on). Our main advice right now: Keep your eyes on the action of the market, not on the headlines. So far, the major indexes remain in a sideways range, while a few stocks are still in choppy uptrends. Thus, despite the news, not much has changed, and so we’re keeping our Market Monitor in neutral territory and sticking with the game plan of holding some cash and being choosy on the buy side, while honoring stops and booking partial profits on the way up.

This week’s list has some names that haven’t appeared in months (if ever) as some new leadership attempts to firm up. Our Top Pick, though, is a familiar name—Gilead Sciences (GILD) is cheap, flush with cash and just emerging after a long rest.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Charles Schwab (SCHW)	0.00	32-33	30-30.5
Signature Bank (SBNY)	0.00	140-145	133-135
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	635-660	570-580
Men’s Wearhouse (MW)	0.00	60-62	56-57
Mobileye N.V. (MBLY)	0.00	47.5-50.5	44.5-45
JD.com (JD)	39.58	35.5-37.5	33.5-34
The IMAX Corporation (IMAX)	0.00	41-43	37-38
Illumina Inc. (ILMN)	289.74	209-216	198-199
Gilead Sciences (GILD)	75.10	115-119	106-107
FireEye (FEYE)	0.00	50-52.5	45-46

Current Market Outlook


There’s little question the overall market environment remains bullish—the intermediate- and longer-term trends are up, most stocks and sectors are in the same boat and we’re spotting more set-ups (either pullbacks or longer bases) out there. Short-term, though, nothing would surprise us—most major indexes haven’t made any progress since mid-December, we’re entering the thick of earnings season and some sentiment measures have gotten extended, indicating investor complacency. We’re not advising any drastic change in stance; our Market Monitor remains in bullish territory at a level 8 out of 10, and we’re looking to latch on to any new leadership that lifts off. But just be sure to have your plan in place, both on the buy side and sell side, as earnings season revs up.

This week’s list is a mixed bag and includes a few stocks that are reporting earnings within a couple of weeks. Our Top Pick is Coherent (COHR), a little-known laser company that’s benefiting from an uptick in OLED demand and from a major acquisition that’s just closed. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alaska Air Group (ALK)	0.00	90.5-93.5	84-85.5
Charles Schwab (SCHW)	0.00	39.5-41	36.5-37.5
Coherent, Inc. (COHR)	0.00	138-145	128-130
Glaukos Corp. (GKOS)	67.84	37.5-39.5	35-36
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY)	70.70	45-48	40-42
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	112.5-118	102-104
MSC Industrial (MSM)	0.00	95-98	91-89
Rio Tinto plc (RIO)	57.05	40-42	37-38
Tesaro (TSRO)	0.00	148-153	134-137
Univar (UNVR)	0.00	27-28.5	25-26

Last week was another constructive week, with the major indexes surviving some early volatility to finish the week higher—and with more leading (and potential leading) stocks perking up as they round out multi-week launching pads. It’s pretty obvious the intermediate-term evidence has improved during the past couple of weeks, though we wouldn’t say it’s all clear out there, as the major indexes and growth measures are moving into the thick of resistance, and this week brings an avalanche of earnings reports from key stocks, so it’s still very much a day-by-day process here. Even so, we always go with what’s in front of us—we’ll nudge our Market Monitor up to a level 7 and could go higher if more individual names kick into gear.

This week’s list has a bunch of recent earnings winners, some of which are out to new highs, while others are setting up. Our Top Pick is one of the former that has a great near- and longer-term outlook in the aerospace and defense area.

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For the past two months, the market has been positive by most top-down indicators, but it’s gotten a lot trickier as time has gone on, with many growth areas cracking intermediate-term support, with repeated bouts of rotation and with upward progress slowing down. The good news is that even after today’s broad selling, the intermediate-term trend remains pointed up and many Top Ten stocks are holding their own, but just going with what we’ve seen, it’s getting tougher to make (and keep) much money. Right here, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7, but we think holding some cash and taking some profits on the way up remains a good strategy.

Despite the rotation, we did see some earnings winners last week among growth stocks, and this week’s list has a few alongside names from other areas of the market. Our Top Pick is a smaller name that broke out powerfully last month and has a solid story—shares are a bit thinly traded, so start small and aim for dips.

Current Market Outlook


Our thoughts on the overall environment remain the same—growth stocks continue to slowly repair the damage, though most stocks aren’t out of the woods yet (many have moved right into some tough resistance), and there remains lots of selling on strength and rotation on a daily basis (cyclical stocks look iffy), so it’s tough to make much progress. All in all, we’re going to keep our Market Monitor at a level 6—we’re close to raising it, but the lack of upside breakouts and the continued chop keep us in a “trust but verify” mode. There are things to like, but we need to see more.

Interestingly, this week’s list is heavy on growth stocks, though finding buy points is tricky. Our Top Pick is DocuSign (DOCU), which has shown excellent accumulation since earnings, though we favor keeping it small and/or trying to get in on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Align Technology (ALGN)	606	590-610	550-560
Arista Networks (ANET)	365	349-359	320-325
CareDx (CDNA)	90	87-91	78-80
Cloudflare (NET)	96	90-93	80-82
Continental Resources (CLR)	35	33.5-35	29.5-30.5
DocuSign (DOCU)	257	249-259	221-226
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO)	12	11.8-12.5	10.5-10.9
Lightspeed POS Inc. (LSPD)	76	73.5-76.5	65-67
Signet Jewelers (SIG)	76	72.5-75	63-65
United States Steel Corporation (X)	27	26-27.5	23-24

Current Market Outlook


The market’s gradual improvement since mid-August continued last week, with the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes turning back up and individual stocks (including both leading growth stocks, as well as many sectors bouncing strongly off prolonged corrections) acting well. We’ve even seen an impressive rebound in the broad market, with the number of stocks hitting new lows drying up drastically. We can’t say the major indexes are incredibly powerful, as many are at or just above their prior highs, but overall, the most bullish thing a market can do is go up, and that’s what we’re seeing. We’ll push our Market Monitor up another notch this week to a level 8 (out of 10) and will continue to put money to work as the evidence improves.

This week’s list has a bunch of strong charts from a variety of industries, including three chip names as that sector reasserts itself. For our Top Pick, we’ll keep it simple and go with one of the market’s liquid leaders—Nvidia (NVDA) has exploded out of a tight base on big volume over the past two days. You could start a position here or on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Adient (ADNT)	0.00	76-79	71-73
Allegheny Technologies (ATI)	27.78	21.5-22.5	19-19.5
Bitauto Holdings (BITA)	0.00	42-45	36.5-38.5
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	139-143	131-133
Lear Corp. (LEA)	0.00	160-166	149-152
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)	43.31	33-35	30.5-31.5
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)	242.42	177-188	164-170
ON Semiconductor (ON)	24.07	16.7-17.4	15.2-16.
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	27-28.5	24.5-25.5
Terex (TEX)	0.00	41.5-43.5	37.5-39

Each day brings something new. Some days every stock falls, other days they all surge, and some days, like Monday, undervalued stocks in the industrial, consumer and financial sectors jump (the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1%) while the Nasdaq slipped 2.4% - an enormous and historically unusual 3.4 percentage point gap, particularly as the indices went in opposite directions. Since February 12th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lifted by 1.1% while the Nasdaq has plunged by 10.5%, entering what the media call a correction.

It has felt like a horrible week, but the reality is that, despite both the Nasdaq and the Dow both falling into correction territory, all but two of our stocks have held above their previous lows.

Last Tuesday’s hot inflation report, along with Thursday evening’s earnings warning from FedEx, led to a terrible week for stocks, which keeps the negative top-down evidence in place: Both the intermediate- and longer-term trends of the market, as well as most stocks and sectors, remains pointed south. On the positive side, we still see many stocks doing a solid job of holding their own, and sentiment is firmly on the bearish side of the fence, and both of those represent dry tinder—if something goes right in the world (what a concept!), we think there’s a chance of a really solid rally. But bear markets are all about patience; we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 4.


This week’s list has another batch of resilient stocks, and our Top Pick has been bottoming out for months, and a decisive push higher should be buyable.

In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Janus Henderson Group (JHG) and Polaris (PII). Our note also includes the monthly Catalyst Report and a summary of the February edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday.

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