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Regional banks are having a moment in the sun, as the larger U.S. financial institutons continue to make headlines for their failures and missteps. Regional banks make neither headlines nor trades—they just make loans, interest and money. Today’s Spotlight Stock is a bank chain based in Georgia, serving Florida, the...

“Few investors pay much attention to insurance companies because they are hard to understand—and they seem to take on awfully big risks. But I’ve learned over my career that many of the best investors always focus their portfolios on insurance stocks. Consider Warren Buffett, the greatest investor who has ever...

VIDEO: The talk of the trading world right now is the huge move higher in the VIX. I have three theories on why the VIX has surged 50% in recent days.

Small-cap investing is a chance to profit from smaller companies. Because they have so much room still to grow, small-cap stocks present an opportunity for enormous profits.

One of our portfolio stocks reported this morning and will host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. I’m including a quick overview now and will detail any learnings from the conference call later.

The major indexes finished deep in the red again today, with growth stocks taking another pounding. Our Cabot Tides are now firmly negative, and we’ve been raising cash steadily during the past week. We have two more sales tonight raising our cash position to 52%.

One of our stocks is down 12% this morning after reporting another mixed-but-good quarter yesterday afternoon.

Current Market Outlook


First, the good news: By last week’s end, the major indexes had extended their bounce, with many recouping about 45% or more of their December 29-January 20 meltdowns. And this bounce probably has further to run, especially as earnings season has helped a few stocks show excellent strength. All of that said, the onus remains on the bulls to prove this bounce can morph into a sustained rally—the intermediate- and longer-term trends are still pointed down for all indexes and the vast majority of stocks, and to this point, most of the “action” has been in defensive and interest rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs, tobacco, etc.). That can always change, and we hope it does, but right now it’s best to remain defensive and allow the market to prove itself on the upside.

This week’s list contains some turnaround situations, but we’re encouraged to see some real growth stocks as well. And the Top Pick this week is the flag-bearer for all growth stocks—Facebook (FB) is well owned, but remains one of the best stories around, and last week’s earnings report revealed accelerating growth.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TAL Education (XRS)	0.00	45-47	41-42
Under Armour (UA)	0.00	80-83	74-76
T-Mobile US (TMUS)	0.00	38-40	35-36
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	27-29	24-24.5
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	110-115	102-103
Diamondback Energy (FANG)	0.00	70-74	63-64
Dollar Tree (DLTR)	0.00	78-81	72-73
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	33-35	30-30.5
Align Technology (ALGN)	316.20	64-67	61-61.5
Barrick Gold (ABX)	0.00	9.5-10	8-8.5

In the month since the broad market began to weaken, the losers have been interest-rate sensitive securities; investors clearly fear that rates will rise further. But who are the winners? Interestingly, there is no one strong sector resisting the decline. Rather, numerous strong stocks in a variety of industries are being supported by investors. But more and more, these stocks are failing to hit new highs, so the big picture is one of growing weakness overall, and this is reflected in the less bullish status of our Market Monitor. You can still make money in this market, but more than ever, skillful stock-picking, combined with proper entry timing, is critical. So we urge you to study numerous individual stocks carefully. Try to buy on normal pullbacks. And above all, keep losses small if a stock doesn’t do what you hired it to do.

Our Editor’s Choice today, Lions Gate Entertainment, is a lower-risk selection with a good long-term growth story, and a timely entry could work out very well.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Trulia (TRLA)	0.00	42-45	37-38
Sealed Air (SEE)	0.00	29-30	25-26
Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR)	0.00	60-63	56-57
Pandora Media Inc. (P)	0.00	18-20	15-16
LightInTheBox Holding Co., Ltd. (LITB)	0.00	18-20	15-16
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF)	0.00	32-33.5	28-29
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP)	34.94	43-45	39-40
Cornerstone OnDemand (CSOD)	51.01	49-51	45-46
Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX)	0.00	19-20	16-17
Baidu (BIDU)	0.00	130-135	118-120

Stocks are starting the week back in business after last week’s dip over the credit downgrade. The credit downgrade doesn’t appear to be having much effect on the market at this point. Unless that changes, the market appears poised to continue to forge higher, at least for the time being.

Meanwhile, it’s still earnings season and the past couple of weeks have been busy for the portfolio. Earnings had been very kind to the portfolio two weeks ago with Digital Realty (DLR), AbbVie (ABBV), and Intel (INTC) all getting sizable boosts with better-than-expected results. But the season soured on the portfolio last week as both Qualcomm (QCOM) and Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) laid eggs.

Earnings season is about over. And the end of the summer is upon us.

This is a weird time of year for the market. Investors tend to pay less attention because many of them are focused on trying to squeeze in the last bit of summer fun and laxness before it slips away. The market tends to do whatever it was doing before people stopped paying attention.

It was going sideways, and that is what it will likely continue to do for the next several weeks. Of course, a major headline could certainly change that. But most often these waning days of summer tend to be less eventful.

Even the temporarily averted government shutdown can’t do much for this market. The S&P 500 is now down more than 7% from the 52-week high and may be headed to correction territory, down 10% or more.

The main problem is high interest rates. The benchmark ten-year Treasury rate continues to rise and just hit a new 16-year high near 4.7%. The Fed’s recent statement that interest rates will remain higher for longer continues to demoralize investors.

The market had a great November. But the rally petered out.

Wall Street always overdoes it. It took the good news about peak interest rates to another level and started pricing in Fed rate cuts early next year. The market pulled back on Monday because the Fed dismissed that notion.

The final numbers are in. And they’re impressive.

After a bear market in 2022, the market indexes came back sharply in 2023. That’s not unusual. Prior to last year, there had been nine years of negative S&P 500 returns since 1980. Seven of those down years were followed by up years, and four of those seven up years posted returns of 20% or higher. The market doesn’t usually stay beaten down for long.

The rally that began in November is slowing down, but not dying.

Things are still good. Inflation is falling, the Fed is probably done hiking rates, longer-term rates have peaked, and the economy is still strong. But it’s that time of year. The holidays have a way of taking investor focus away from the market. Stocks tend to do whatever they were doing when investors stopped paying attention, which in this case is edging higher ever so slowly.

The market is rallying this month as the “Goldilocks” scenario gets renewed traction.

The economy is still solid. There are no signs of recession. At the same time, the Fed is making noises like it may be done hiking rates because of the higher longer-term rates. A good earnings season may also buoy stocks.

A look at the charts shows the stock market has been extremely volatile since March 2009.