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After a rough week last week small caps have bounced back over the last two sessions and have the potential to close at a three-week high today. I’d like to see the S&P 600 Index close back above 1230 (at 1224 now) before turning more bullish.

It has been called “Beijing’s missile fashion week” by news outlets, and it commanded a fair share of this week’s headlines. It’s also a reminder to investors why the defense sector is still in a leadership position from a relative strength standpoint, driven by ongoing military conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

With mortgage rates leveling off and housing prices still elevated, here’s everything you need to know to confidently buy a new home in less-than-ideal conditions.

This month we’re adding a high-growth biotech name that has just begun to commercialize a unique compound for fighting aggressive cancers and other diseases including, potentially, COVID-19.

The company just began booking revenue from its first cancer treatment. That launch significantly de-risks the stock and raises the potential for future approval of the same compound for other indications.



The stock has retreated lately because prescription sales were curbed during the COVID-19 outbreak. This should be a temporary dip as there are many potential stock-moving catalysts coming this year. We’re hoping to sneak in and buy the dip on this high-potential name.



All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

First and foremost, all of us at Cabot wish you a great long holiday weekend; our offices will be closed tomorrow but we’ll be back at it again on Monday.

As for the market, the story remains largely the same--there are some blemishes, but most of the evidence is positive, so we’re sticking with a heavily invested stance, albeit with some moves based on the action of individual stocks. Earlier this week, we trimmed a bit, leaving us with around 14% in cash.



In tonight’s issue, we write about one new liquid leader we’d love to own at the right price, along with all our latest thoughts on our stocks and the market.

The market correction continues, and we’re now seeing the selling pressures broaden, with many resilient growth stocks beginning to come under pressure. The longer-term evidence remains positive, so this is still an overall bull market, but our intermediate-term Cabot Tides are clearly negative, so we advise being cautious—cutting back on new buying, holding a chunk of cash and keeping losers and laggards on tight leashes.

Now is a good time to review what Mike Cintolo considers the #1 rule for growth stock investors--cutting losses short.

Today marks the first face-to-face talks between senior officials from America and China since July.

This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Vodafone (VOD). Next week, Kohl’s (KSS) reports, with Macy’s (M) and Duluth Holdings (DLTH) reporting on June 1.

The fact that the major indexes and, especially, a ton of growth stocks bounced sharply late last week is a bullish sign; it at least tells you buyers are still interested, especially when it comes to some fast-growing names that recently reported outstanding results. That said, we can’t conclude the market is off to the races again—all the major indexes (save the Nasdaq) are still below their 50-day lines, the number of stocks hitting new highs is still tiny, and much of the broad market has taken on lots of water. Some new buying is fine, as is holding your top performers, but be sure to hold some cash until the market confirms a new uptrend.

This week’s list has a bunch of stocks that are acting bullishly, including a few that recently gapped up on earnings. Our Top Pick is Michael Kors (KORS), a well-sponsored name that reported a blowout quarter last week. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Yelp (YELP)	41.30	86-92	75-76
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	133-138	124-125
USG Corp. (USG)	0.00	31-33	29.5-30
Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP)	0.00	95-99	89-90
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	63-65	57-58
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	91-96	83-84
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	62.5-65	54-55
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	102-107	89-90
Tableau Software (DATA)	126.42	84-88	78-80
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)	0.00	36.5-38.5	32-33

Current Market Outlook


After a very strong rally from the late-January lows, the major indexes are again in the midst of a pullback—during the past week and a half we’ve seen a few days of churning and distribution as worries over inflation (and a less-loose Federal Reserve) cause some profit taking, and today saw a big rotation out of growth stocks. Could this be the start of a “real” correction? It could be, as the intermediate-term advance is long in the tooth and sentiment remains giddy. That said, we never anticipate, and so far, we really haven’t seen much abnormal action yet—while a few stocks have fallen apart after earnings, most leaders are intact and even the weakest major index (Nasdaq) is near its 25-day line, which is acceptable. Given some of the yellow flags out there, our antennae are up, but with most of the evidence still positive, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has many recent earnings winners, including a few that are busting loose from good-sized bases (regular or post-IPO). Our Top Pick is Wix.com (WIX), which has a great story, accelerating growth and just staged a very powerful breakout.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
The AZEK Company (AZEK)	47	45-47.5	40.5-41.5
Deere & Company (DE)	338	318-328	288-294
DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)	60	59.5-62.5	52-53.5
Magna International Inc. (MGA)	87	81-85	73-75
Mohawk Industries (MHK)	174	162-168	146-149
MongoDB (MDB)	392	395-407	355-365
SelectQuote (SLQT)	30	27-29	24-25
Sonos (SONO)	38	34.5-36.5	29.5-30.5
Teck Resources Limited (TECK)	23	21-22	18.7-19.5
Wix.com (WIX)	335	333-346	295-305

Many major indexes have hit new highs in recent days, and all Cabot’s market timing indicators are currently positive. Conclusion: it’s a bull market and you need to be heavily invested.

But, as always, you need to manage your portfolio. In our own portfolio, eight of our stocks have hit new highs in the past week, which is great. But two of the others are being downgraded to hold because their prospects are less secure.

As for today’s new recommendation, it’s a young, fast-growing company in a high-risk/high-potential market sector. It’s certainly not for everyone, but for aggressive investors, it could be fun.

Expensify (EXFY) reported underwhelming Q1 2023 results after the bell yesterday. Our goal here was to get into what seems like a promising long-term opportunity with a small specialist (expense management and other financial tools for small and very small businesses) before the trends turned more positive.

The markets traded sideways through most of April. But since then, the choppiness has returned—along with worries about the uncertainty regarding the debt ceiling, the expiration of the immigration-limiting legislation, and ongoing debate about the possibility of a recession.

Yet, economically speaking, the trends are still healthy. Manufacturing has held up, employment continues to rise, and job openings are still underutilized (as you can tell if you’ve been in a restaurant lately!).

As we head into December, there are several major factors at work on the market, and most of them are negative: interest rates are rising, global trade is at risk of slowing, and the major trend of the market is now down. But not all factors are bleak. On the positive side, the deep correction has made stocks cheaper, and as stocks have fallen, investors have become more fearful, which eventually becomes a good thing.

So while caution is clearly warranted, it’s important not to stick your head in the sand.

The Model Portfolio is more than 90% invested and off to a good start this year. In tonight’s issue, we write about our newest addition and the excellent relative strength it’s shown in recent months; we think it’s a liquid leader of the new energy rally. We also write about some recent IPOs, other stocks we’re watching and, of course, dive into all of our recommended names.

Thursday’s massive rally in Intel (INTC), a Cabot Turnaround Letter portfolio holding, did more than just underline the just-announced $5 billion stake that Nvidia (NVDA) initiated in the company. It also highlighted the degree to which growing federal involvement in tech- and defense-related companies—particularly those used to enable AI and other “mission critical” applications—has been driving the seemingly endless rallies of many leading tech sector stocks.

In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Janus Henderson Group (JHG), Paramount Global (PARA), Starbucks (SBUX) and Teladoc Health (TDOC).

[Note: Due to the Christmas holiday, there will be no Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update next Friday. The next monthly issue of the newsletter will be published on December 31.]

The Fed has reversed a long-standing balance sheet tightening phase with its recent decision to expand its balance sheet—a move that has largely fallen under the news radar.