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Current Market Outlook


Stocks had another great week, with the major indexes and most leading stocks levitating higher amidst a vacuum of selling pressure. There’s no question things are a bit bubbly here, with most things trading miles above support and moving averages, and as investor sentiment shifts toward greed. Still, more important to us are the intermediate-term trend (clearly up) and the fact that momentum like we’re seeing generally leads to higher prices down the road. Thus, overall, you should remain bullish, but (a) we still favor being choosy on the buy side, looking for pullbacks and shakeouts in stocks that have shown excellent strength and persistency, and (b) having a plan as we enter earnings season, including looking for new leadership that emerges.

This week’s list has something for everyone, from hot growth stocks to news-driven moves to some turnaround situations. Our Top Pick is Red Rock Resorts (RRR), which is part of the strong gaming group and has began to take a breather after a persistent advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)	15.37	18-19	16-16.8
Arch Coal (ARCH)	82.27	92-95	85.5-87.5
Express Scripts Holding Company (ESRX)	79.25	76.5-79.5	70-72
Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)	35.25	19.5-21	17.5-18.5
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	27.89	30.5-32	28-29
Nucor Corporation (NUE)	66.20	66-69	61.5-63
Red Rock Resorts (RRR)	34.70	32.5-34	30-31
Stifel Financial (SF)	56.32	63-66	58-59.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	188-198	167-175
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	42.5-44	39.5-40.5

Bruce Kaser, chief analyst of Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor and Cabot Turnaround Letter speaks about:
* Why bother with contrarian stocks when momentum stocks are working right now?
* How we find worthwhile contrarian stocks
* 2 contrarian stocks that we like

There remain some yellow flags in the market, but when you look at the big picture, there remains far more good than bad. It’s vital to remain flexible of course, as in 2020, things have changed on a dime a couple of times, but with most of the evidence still positive, we remain mostly bullish.

We are recommending shares of CNH Industrial (CNHI) as a new Buy. The company is a major producer of agriculture (80% of sales) and construction (20% of sales) equipment for customers around the world and is the #2 ag equipment producer in North America (behind Deere). It also provides related supplies, services and financing.

I previously gave you a heads up that new low-sulfur diesel regulations (IMO 2020) and a serious hog disease in China (African Swine Fever) are quite likely to increase inflation numbers in 2020 and beyond. Are you ready for the next sweeping industrywide change that will be hitting the credit markets?

Current Market Outlook


Bigger picture, nothing has changed with the market’s stance—the intermediate- and longer-term trends of the major indexes and most leading stocks look solid, sentiment (while heating up a bit) isn’t stretched and many background measures (like our 7.5% Rule) bode well for the months ahead. Short-term, though, things continue to look tricky, as earnings season combined with all the news/rumors out there surrounding the Fed, trade negotiations and even Iran is leading to daily wiggles and a ton of under-the-surface rotation. As we’ve been writing for a while, you shouldn’t get caught up in the day-to-day gyrations, but taking partial profits when offered and being choosy on the buy side (keeping positions small ahead of earnings, looking for good setups near support) makes sense as the myriad crosscurrents continue.

Reflecting the environment, this week’s list produced much more diverse than in recent weeks. Our Top Pick is ASML Inc. (ASML), a chip equipment maker that just broke out on earnings from a year-long base.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Ally Financial (ALLY)	30.44	32-33.5	29-30
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)	32.16	28-30	24-25
ASML Holding (ASML)	350.01	222-229	200-204
CrowdStrike (CRWD)	105.02	84-88	70-72.5
EPAM Systems (EPAM)	188.24	190-195	173-175
Generac Holdings (GNRC)	86.60	69.5-72	63-64.5
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)	304.69	185-190	172-174
Match (MTCH)	0.00	75-78	67.5-69
Proofpoint (PFPT)	113.79	122-127	112-114
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)	34.43	26-27.5	23-23.5

It’s been a painful April for stocks, with the S&P 500 down more than 5% and many growth and small-cap stocks down much further. But in the grand scheme, some selling was to be expected after five straight months of gains. It’s still a bull market, and it’s not likely to up and fizzle after five months. Eventually, selling pressures will ease, and the market will bounce back. Until then, we have to ride out the storm. Today, we do that in several ways: selling two more of our laggards, downgrading two once-red-hot stocks that are in the midst of steep corrections, and adding a new stock from perhaps the one strong sector at the moment: gold miners. It’s a new addition from Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities.

Growth stocks remain dead in the water, with the sellers still focusing their efforts on the high valuation names that led the market higher during the past eight months. But now we’re beginning to see the weakness is that niche spread—broader indexes like the S&P 500 are feeling the heat, and while few cyclical-type stocks have broken down, most are starting to look ragged as big investors head toward defensive names. All told, it’s not 2008 all over again, but now is the time to hold plenty of cash, build a watch list and, if you buy, keep position sizes small and make sure you have your stops in place.

This week’s list is heavy with still-resilient cyclical stocks with great projected growth during the next couple of years. Our Top Pick is Devon Energy (DVN), a big company with a solid turnaround story and a stock that’s just getting going after a few down years.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)	64.96	62-64	58-59
Ultra Petroleum (UPL)	0.00	26.5-28	25-25.5
Schlumberger (SLB)	0.00	95-97	91-92
RH Inc. (RH)	252.93	68-70	63-64
Southwest Airlines (LUV)	0.00	23-24	21.5-22
GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT)	0.00	15.5-17	14-14.5
Electronic Arts (EA)	0.00	27.5-29	25.5-26.5
Devon Energy (DVN)	0.00	66.5-68.5	62.5-63.5
CARBO Ceramics (CRR)	0.00	130-135	120-121
AerCap (AER)	0.00	38-40	34-35

Current Market Outlook


Last week’s rally was very encouraging. Some major indexes and a handful of leading growth stocks hit new highs, and many others set up well. Coming after a six-week consolidation, it’s enough to put some sidelined cash to work, and we’re bumping our Market Monitor up a notch in response. That said, be sure to keep your feet on the ground and pick your spots, as the rally has come on extremely light volume (not the end of the world, but it does show a lack of conviction), the Nasdaq is still shy of new highs, and earnings season, which is now underway, is sure to have a big impact on individual stocks into early August.

This week’s list has a broad array of stocks from various sectors that attracted buyers as soon as the pressure came off the market. Our Top Pick is Western Digital (WDC), which lifted to new highs on good volume last week and has already preannounced solid results.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)	0.00	79-83	73-75
CoStar Group (CSGP)	589.55	265-271	245-248
Dana Holding (DAN)	0.00	22.5-23.5	21-21.5
E*Trade Financial (ETFC)	0.00	37.5-40	35-36
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	156-160	147-151
IPG Photonics (IPGP)	0.00	148-153	137-140
Kite Pharma (KITE)	0.00	99-104	87-90
New Relic (NEWR)	103.70	45.5-47.5	41.5-43
Ryanair DAC (RYAAY)	0.00	111-1151	102-104
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)	0.00	92-95	84-86

Current Market Outlook


The Nasdaq and leading growth stocks were whacked again last week, extending the correction in that group to just over three weeks. At this point, the major trend is still up, but intermediate-term, the onus is on the bulls, as many stocks (and the Nasdaq itself) have fallen toward key support—a couple of big selloffs from here would be a red flag, especially for names that have had big runs during the past year, though a strong sign of support could arrest the decline. Right now, we remain mostly bullish because many stocks are still in good shape, especially early-stage growth stocks that are trading resiliently and new leadership is emerging as money rotates into other areas.

This week’s list is a mix of both categories. Our Top Pick this week is Citigroup (C), which, despite its huge size, has great potential thanks to industry trends and recent news flow. The stock was the first big bank to leap to new highs recently, too.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	18-20	15-16.5
Citigroup Inc. (C)	0.00	66-68	63-64
Exelixis (EXEL)	27.35	23.5-25	21-21.5
iRhythm Technologies (IRTC)	51.15	41-43	37-38
Nintendo Co., Ltd. (NTDOY)	0.00	39.5-41.5	36-37
Packaging Corp (PKG)	0.00	108-111	101-103
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	22-23.5	20-21
Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC)	127.95	32.5-34	29.5-31
Wayfair (W)	167.03	72-75	65-67
Winnebago (WGO)	48.56	34-35.5	31-32

Current Market Outlook


The big-cap indexes are looking better and better, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rocketing above their 200-day lines last week on the back of some bullish earnings reports. That said, not all is hunky dory—mid- and small-cap indexes continue to languish, the number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows is actually picking up and many stocks near their highs are still just biding their time. All in all, we’re still cautiously optimistic but we’re also sticking with our relatively neutral stance—it’s fine to take a shot at a few good set-ups, but honor your stops and keep some cash on the sideline until we see more leadership emerge, possibly on earnings during the next couple of weeks.

This week’s list has a wide array of stocks and sectors, including a few recent earnings winners. For our Top Pick, we’re going to go where the strength is—Delta Air (DAL) isn’t changing the world, but earnings are huge and the sector is acting very well.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Netgear Inc (NTGR)	0.00	38.5-41	35-36
Lennox International (LII)	270.56	124-128	113-114
General Motors Company (GM)	0.00	33.5-35	31.5-32
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	98-103	91-92
Euronet Worldwide (EEFT)	142.83	77-80	73-74
Delta Air Lines (DAL)	54.28	48-51	44.5-45
Cavium (CAVM)	0.00	69.5-72	63-64
Acuity Brands (AYI)	0.00	200-209	188-190
Athenahealth (ATHN)	0.00	145-153	135-137
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)	79.05	27-28.5	25-26

Current Market Outlook


Just a few days ago, the intermediate-term trend was looking iffy, but the past few days have shown very encouraging action—every major index has tagged new high ground, and we’re seeing more and more stocks react well to earnings and follow through to the upside afterwards. There are still a couple of yellow lights from some secondary measures (short-term sentiment is a bit complacent; small caps continue to lag), so near-term pullbacks wouldn’t be surprising. But there’s no question the trend of the market and most stocks is up, with many areas resuming their post-election advances. We’ll nudge up our Market Monitor to a level 8 (out of 10) to reflect the improved evidence.

This week’s list has a bunch of stocks that are showing excellent power in recent weeks; many have just gotten going after long sideways phases. Our Top Pick is Lumentum (LITE), a mid-sized player in the optical networking field that’s exploded out of a four-month base. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Box Inc. (BOX)	0.00	16.7-17.7	15-15.7
CDW Corporation (CDW)	0.00	55.5-58	51-52.5
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)	0.00	11-12	9.7-10.3
Lam Research (LRCX)	268.47	112-116	106-108
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)	0.00	21.5-22.5	20-20.5
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	45-48	41-43
Medicines Company (MDCO)	56.98	46-49	42-43.5
Morgan Stanley (MS)	0.00	44-46	41.5-42.5
Sanmina (SANM)	0.00	38-40	35-36
Weibo (WB)	98.16	51-54	48-49

Jerome Powell went full Grinch last week, sparking a brief market selloff after saying the Fed would cut rates at a slower pace than expected in 2025. Prior to that, there were some obvious cracks beneath the market’s surface, so Powell’s downer of a press conference served more to expand the selling than cause it. But the nice rebound in the last two trading days shows the bulls are still mostly in charge, which means it’s a good time to add a mid-cap water stock that Tyler Laundon just introduced to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience.

Details inside. Happy Holidays!

Stocks are already at all-time highs, and now it appears the Fed is (finally) prepared to give them an extra nudge in the form of interest rate cuts this week. When that happens, it’s typically bullish for stocks, even if there are some bumps along the way. So today, we continue to try and capitalize on a growth-friendly market by adding a fast-expanding biotech play to the Stock of the Week portfolio. It’s a new recommendation from Mike Cintolo in his momentum-based Cabot Top Ten Trader newsletter. And it’s been on a tear for the last month.

Details inside.

In 2022 new management took the helm of a small, deli-focused food company that was underperforming its potential. Fast forward a couple of years and management is executing an ambitious growth plan, while consumers are flocking to the deli section like never before.

This month’s Issue tells the story of a micro-cap company that’s hitting its stride a century after the woman it’s named after completed the journey from Italy to Brooklyn, NY.