Search

Consumer cyclicals, perhaps more than any other sector, are at the nexus of what we look for in Cabot Value Investor these days: solid growth, but at value prices. And today we add a high-profile stock from one of the most resilient subsectors of an otherwise sluggish retail space. Its shares were overly beaten down in the weeks since underwhelming May retail sales prompted a flash mini-selloff in all things retail. But this remarkably reliable, steady-as-she-goes growth company didn’t deserve it, and shares are now trading at a rare discount.

Details inside.

In our last issue before the holiday shopping season hopefully kicks off the next leg of the bull market, today we subtract two underperforming overseas positions and add a mid-cap defense stock recommended by Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld. We also put a bow on Q3 earnings season (minus this week’s Nvidia report, of course), which was mostly a force for good among the stocks in our portfolio.

Details inside.

After spending most of the summer making a series of new highs, it’s been more of the same so far this fall.

The drawback is that the market is high-priced. Technology stocks, driven by the AI catalyst, have driven stocks higher. But certain sectors have not had a great year. Despite the impressive performance of the overall market over the last few years, there are still bargains to be found.

The real estate sector struggled during inflation and rising interest rates and has been the worst-performing sector over the last five years. Healthcare has floundered all year because of uncertainty regarding tariffs and new pricing policies from Washington. It has been the second-worst-performing market sector over the last year.

But things are turning around in both beleaguered sectors. The Fed started cutting the fed funds rate again in September and two more cuts are expected this year. The long-anticipated issues in the healthcare industry have revealed themselves. And it doesn’t seem nearly as bad as feared. As a result, healthcare stocks had the strongest weekly rally in more than 20 years.

In this issue, I highlight a REIT that specializes in healthcare properties. It has a stellar track record of performance and has among the fastest earnings growth among REITs. It also pays a strong dividend yield and will likely benefit in the months ahead from a rally in either sector.

Retail stocks are having a rough year.

The S&P SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) is down 3.8% year to date, and consumer discretionary as a whole has been the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. It makes sense. Tariffs threaten to hit U.S. retailers hardest, including the many companies that sell products like toys, child car seats, and sports apparel (such as our own Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)), most of which are made in places like China, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand – the places with the highest potential tariff rates. Combine that with escalating fears of a U.S. recession – also brought on by tariffs – and it could be a double whammy for retailers who don’t sell the essential everyday items that consumers buy regardless of the economic environment.

The New Year is shaping up to be different from recent years. And market leadership is already changing.

The economy is transforming.

The positive effects of tax cuts and deregulation are starting to take effect. There are also significantly cheaper oil prices, lower interest rates, and the absence of much of the tariff uncertainty from last year. The chances are good that 2026 will feature the strongest economy of the bull market so far.

Most cyclical businesses benefit from a stronger economy. In fact, cyclical stocks have been the best performing market sectors for the past few months. Bank stocks in particular are in a great position because of cheap valuations, rising earnings, and a likely steepening yield curve.

Banks took it on the chin during inflation and rising rates. Although bank stocks have recovered from the loss, they are still near the same price level they were four years ago. The recovery should have further to go. In this issue, I highlight one of the country’s largest regional banks. The bank has rapidly growing earnings and the stock price has momentum.

We’re adding a new 5.3% yielding stock to the High Yield Tier. Most of our other positions are rated Buy as well, and the market is strong, so if you’re underinvested, it’s time to put some money to work.

After a brief shakeout last Monday, supposedly on fears that Italy would leave the EU, the market reversed course and has been pushing higher and higher since, supposedly cheering on the continued strong performance of the U.S. economy.

I’m enjoying the ride, and I assume you are, too. But I must remind you that good news is prevalent at market tops, while bad news is what you wallow in at market bottoms. So keep your eyes on the exits—while continuing to hold the best stocks as long as the market supports them.

Today’s selection is one of the big, fast-growing Chinese companies (you might call it the Google of China), which has just pulled back to offer us a lower-risk entry point.

Today’s recommendation is a chain restaurant—a chain I’d never even heard of—but the company is growing fast and the chart is very constructive.

The good news is that four weeks of upside action has brought a new buy signal from Cabot’s intermediate-term market timing indicator. But this doesn’t mean you can jump in with both feet yet; there’s still reason for caution.

One way Cabot Stock of the Week exercises caution is by diversifying widely, not only among industries but also among investment strategies. Today’s recommendation, a big undervalued robotics company in Japan, is an excellent example.



As for the rest of the portfolio, it’s acting well and thus the only change today is a downgrade of one stock—which has got a bit high—from buy to hold.



Full details in the issue.

With so much weighing on markets these days, it pays to have quality dividend stocks in your portfolio. Here are 3 Sure Dividend recommends.

In December’s Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we look back at one of the strangest years in decades and discuss the seemingly counterintuitive strategy that drove huge portfolio gains.

Then we look at a fresh batch of names that seem ripe for the picking now and which could serve us well in the beginning of 2021. Our new stocks span clean energy, PC gaming, biotech, industrial supplies, and payment processing. As always, there should be something for everyone!

Calm has been restored to the stock market, at least for now. A week ago – when the VIX briefly spiked as high as 66(!) – it was the opposite of calm. So even if stocks don’t suddenly go straight back up again, this is a welcome return to pre-August form. With that in mind, we have no new sells or downgrades (several of our stocks are hitting new highs!), and we add a very normal-looking growth stock that’s been sailing along just fine despite the many headwinds of the last few weeks. It’s a recent recommendation from Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader.

Details inside.

In the April issue of Cabot Early Opportunities, we take a quick look at what to expect from portfolio positions set to report in the coming weeks and dive into fresh opportunities that are shaping up nicely now.

At the top of the buy list is a software name we just added to our Watch List last month. We also take a position in a cosmetics stock that looks superb, pull back the curtain on a rising biotech star, tour an enterprise software name based in Canada and revisit a MedTech stock that’s finally getting some respect from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

Enjoy!

My pick, by the way, is New Oriental Education (EDU), which is thriving by teaching English to Chinese students of all ages, and also teaching test preparation courses. I like it because I think the growth of China will continue at a rapid rate and because I value education highly. Also, the company is fast-growing and very profitable; in the third quarter, revenues grew 50% from the year before while the after-tax profit margin was 43.9% (there’s a strong seasonal component here). And finally, the chart looks good.

The S&P 500 (SPX) stock index rose to new all-time highs in July, commenced a pullback during the final week of that month, then traded between 2840-2940 in a very orderly pattern during August. For that, I am grateful.

The marijuana sector peaked in February, bottomed from late March to mid-April, and since then has been building a base, preparing for a resumption of the big advance.

Fundamentals in the industry remain terrific, and the trend toward legalization in the U.S. continues, so it’s only a matter of time before these stocks enjoy their next upwave—perhaps as second quarter reports begin to be released next week.



In the portfolio today the one small change is that we’ll sell half our position in TerrAscend (TRSSF) and move the proceeds into Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR).



Full details in the issue.