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For many of your value stocks on the recommended list, the New Year’s rebound continues. Most of these shares were heavily over-sold late last year. Almost given up for dead, shares of Organon (OGN) have surged 38% since hitting an all-time low in mid-October. Similarly, shares of Barrick Gold (GOLD) are up over 43% since their nadir in November.

With this month’s new addition, I decided to go in a different direction then we have with previous recommendations. Instead of featuring another rapid-growth medical device or software stock, I’ve selected a consumer defensive stock in a very specialized industry and with a more modest growth profile. It’s the perfect summertime stock for a period in which many growth stocks are acting a little schizophrenic—especially for those investors who like getting out of the house for a bite to eat and a good beer or glass of wine.

It is with mixed emotions that I am writing my last Cabot Value Investor issue. My nearly four years as part of the Cabot team have been exceptionally rewarding. I have had the opportunity to work with an exceptional research team – who bring talent, dedication and investment results that readily match and likely exceed most Wall Street sell-side and buy-side analysts. Our Cabot analysts, despite their very different investing styles, have helped me become a better investor.

If it feels like value stocks are missing the bull market party this year, take comfort in knowing they’re not alone.

Thanks to the Magnificent Seven and a few other mega-cap tech stocks and red-hot artificial intelligence plays, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have posted very strong returns through the first half of 2024, up 17.6% and 24.8%, respectively. But most other indexes and funds have had very average years. The Dow is up a mere 4.2%. The Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) is up 0.8%. And the Equal Weight S&P 500 index is up 3.7% and is well off its late-March peak.

The dark clouds of persistent inflation and high interest rates continue to hover over the market. But with a record amount of capital on the sidelines and little to no movement in most stocks over the last two-plus years, I’m optimistic that better days are ahead, assuming the inflation/Fed clouds eventually part. Thus, I continue to seek out companies that are essentially growth stocks at value prices. And today, we add another one to our portfolio in the form of a big-name company that’s benefitting greatly from a return to normalcy in a post-Covid world … but whose shares are trading at barely half their pre-pandemic peak.

Enjoy!

According to credit rating agency Moody’s, debt obligations of the United States federal government are “judged to be of the highest quality, subject to the lowest level of credit risk” and thus are worthy of a “AAA” credit rating.

The other two major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, disagree. These firms place an “AA+” rating on federal debt. For its part, Moody’s is not fully convinced of its AAA rating, as it recently added a “negative” label, implying that the rating is no longer “stable.”

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the September 2023 issue.

We do a deep-dive into what ails Citigroup (C) shares and remain steadfast in our conviction.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.

I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

Early last week was fairly quiet as stocks went mostly nowhere until anxiety ramped higher on Friday on tensions rising in the Middle East. By week’s end the S&P 500 had fallen 0.4%, the Dow had lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.6%.

The news cycle moves fast these days, as does the market’s reaction.

Last week, the big news was the 90-day ceasefire in the U.S. vs. China trade war. This week, it’s the passing of the reconciliation bill in the House and concerns over the deficit (the two are not unrelated).

The S&P 600 Small Cap Index popped right back up this week after selling off and landing on its intersecting 50- and 25-day moving average lines last Friday.

Despite the holiday-shortened week, it feels like a lot has happened at the macro level since last Thursday’s update.

Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.

The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.

Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.

The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.

Few industries have been hit harder by COVID-19 than restaurants. But some of them remained open, and these restaurant stocks are benefitting as a result.

High-quality stocks with low PEG ratios have outperformed the stock market indexes in both advancing and declining markets.

Cabot Investors Conference attendee Vivian Francher reviews the conference for CEO Traveler.

Despite a late-week sell-off, stocks finished the week with a mixed but telling tape. Federal Reserve policymakers delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis-point rate cut mid-week — reinforcing easier policy expectations — while fresh highs in cyclicals and small caps early in the week signaled strong breadth, only to be met by renewed AI valuation angst into Friday. Rotation out of mega-cap tech and into value names helped buoy the Dow and Russell 2000 which gained 1% and 0.5%, respectively, even as the tech-heavier S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.6% and 1.6%.

Despite a quiet tone for much of last week, markets ended on a modestly upbeat note as interest rate-cut optimism firmed. Tech and growth names helped push the market higher on hopes the Federal Reserve will ease soon, while small caps and cyclicals got a lift on improving sentiment.

Despite a quiet tone for much of last week, markets ended on a modestly upbeat note as interest rate-cut optimism firmed. Tech and growth names helped push the market higher on hopes the Federal Reserve will ease soon, while small caps and cyclicals got a lift on improving sentiment.

Please note this is an update focused solely on our open positions as I am away from my home office and stuck in travel limbo having been impacted by the snow/ice storm this past weekend. I HOPE to be back at the desk this evening, but that is in question. However, while I’m away from my desk, I am still able to monitor our positions if we need to make moves.