Search

While there have been some encouraging signs here and there, the market never could quite kick into gear during the past two months, which didn’t necessarily portend doom but is why we never turned very bullish in recent weeks—and now we’ve seen a sudden rug pull, as leaders have hit air pockets. Now, to this point, the selling has been mostly seen in the growth arena, so there are still many names that are handling themselves just fine. We’re open to this being the final shakeout to a two-month-long grinding period, but as always we’re taking the evidence as it comes: We’ll yank our Market Monitor down to a level 5, though a lot of it comes down to entry points and what stocks you own.

This week’s list is a hodgepodge of names, with some growth, some turnaround and a few others sprinkled in. Our Top Pick is a great short- and long-term growth story that acts well and could be ready to help lead if the market can turn back up.

The market had what amounted to a halfway decent eight-day rally, but the sellers pounced on that move, with most major indexes testing or reaching new correction lows today. From here, we’ll be watching to see how this short-term retest phase goes—given the very negative sentiment and obvious reason for the selling (tariffs), a super-powerful rally from here would be intriguing, especially if some resilient stocks (those that are holding well above their lows from a couple weeks ago) take flight. Over time, this decline will set the stage for a buoyant advance with lots of new leadership, but until that payoff arrives, continue to practice patience. As always, though, we just go with the here and now; we’ll yank our Market Monitor back down a notch to a level 3.

This week’s list is again very well rounded, though not surprisingly, there’s fewer go-go growth names, as more well-situated outfits are favored. Our Top Pick has both growth and defensive characteristics, and the stock is holding up very well.

It doesn’t take a proprietary timing system to know the trend is down—we’ve been cautious and defensive since late February when the market and leaders first went over the falls, and we remain so today. That said, we’re also students of the market, and there’s no question we’re in the midst of an outright panic, with some truly extreme readings (north of 1,000 new lows on the NYSE on Friday and today; 95% of the S&P 1500 below their 50-day lines, etc.) that have a history of showing up near some sort of market low. That’s not a reason to turn bullish—again, the trends are clearly down—but it’s best to keep your head up and stay alert should some actual “good news” hit the wires. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 3.

This week’s list is chock-full of defensive growth stocks—firms that have steadier growth stories that shouldn’t be affected by the tariff or economic headwinds. Our Top Pick is showing great relative strength and has a huge runway of growth ahead.

On the surface, the economic numbers still look pretty good. Although unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% last month, the number is still low. Jobless claims are down; jobs added, up. Manufacturing looks good, but housing continues to be weak, due to sticky prices and high interest rates.

But the good economic news is on pause, due to tariffs. Already, we’ve seen the 30-year mortgage rate rise to 6.85%, and economists are back to predicting a recession, based on rising business and consumer costs related to the tariffs—which are not yet reflected in the economic stats.

Last week had a few potential potholes for the market’s nascent rally, including some influential big-cap earnings releases and an inflation report before the long weekend—but despite some selling that popped up here and there, the market and fresh leaders handled themselves well. Stepping back, we’re definitely encouraged by the market’s snapback and the numerous upside moves in individual, growth-oriented stocks during the past month; we think the odds favor the next major, sustained move is up. That said, a lot of stocks have set up (but not broken out), old leaders (chip names in particular) look suspect and it’s a fact that defensive areas continue to ramp higher, which is a sign that big investors are hunting for some safety. Again, we’re encouraged overall, but continue to think going slow makes sense, especially now that some selling pressures are beginning to emerge, stickign with mostly small positions and keeping some cash on the sideline. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.

This week’s list is a bit of a hodgepodge, with some recent earnings winners, some fresh names and a few stodgier types. Our Top Pick is Rocket Cos. (RKT), which is basically a cyclical (mortgage lending) company that should be lean and mean after the multi-year dry period—meaning its earnings power should be big as rates head lower.

The overriding question coming into last week was whether, after the V-bottom and strong rally for much of August, the market could keep going or would it fall back into a longer bottom-building process. After last week, it’s looking like stocks need more time to set up, as big investors returned from the long weekend and sold stocks basically every day. Of course, today saw a bounce, and a strong-volume rally with fresh breakouts among potential leaders would be very bullish -- but until we see that, we have to assume the market correction that began in mid July is still ongoing. Long story short, we continue to play things relatively cautiously, sticking with small positions and a chunk of cash on the sideline as we wait for more stocks to emerge on the upside. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6.

This week’s list has a lot of familiar names that are (or are close to) offering decent entry points. Our Top Pick is a consistent grower with a big story that’s trying to emerge from a three-plus-month rest.

After a very sharp dip for most major indexes and especially the Nasdaq, a bounce is underway. When looking at individual stocks, we’re fairly encouraged with what we see, which is a good sign that there will be leadership to sink our teeth into once this correction finishes up. But, at this point, we can’t conclude the correction is over, with most major indexes and key measures still buried under resistance (such as 50-day lines) and with formerly strong areas (chips, etc.) still looking suspect. We’re not opposed to a nibble here or there, but we continue to think remaining patient will pay off. We’ll move our Market Monitor up to a level 5, but still think keeping plenty of cash on the sideline makes sense.

This week’s list is chock-full of names that are acting great, most of which have recently shown big-volume strength after earnings, though we prefer to aim for dips in many cases. Our Top Pick is a familiar name that staged a classic earnings-induced breakout last week.

The market had yet another mostly quiet, mostly positive week, and the vast majority of the top-down evidence is still in good or great shape. That said, there’s no doubt things are a bit extended in time and that more stocks and sectors are beginning to lag, which is one reason we’re not flooring the accelerator. Another is the fact that earnings season really picks up this week—35%-plus of the S&P 500, along with more growth leaders, are reporting, which will obviously be key. Don’t get us wrong, we’re overall bullish, but near term we’re picking our spots. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has a wide variety of names, with many types of names and setups. This week’s Top Pick has earnings this week, but after a huge-volume ramp, shares have dipped on low volume to the 25-day line—we’re OK with a small buy here or on dips with a loose stop.

The big-cap indexes remain in an uptrend, but it’s still a tricky and narrow environment, with just about every other index making no progress (net-net) for the past few weeks while they test their key 50-day moving averages. That means the intermediate-term trend is on the fence, which is obviously something that bears watching. On the positive side of the ledger, though, we’re still encouraged by what we’re seeing during earnings season, with many signs of strength from growth-y titles. All in all, we’re sticking with the stance we’ve been in—our Market Monitor remains at a level 7.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with strength seen in a variety of sectors. Our Top Pick just broke out of a beautiful launching pad after earnings, with some others in the general group also doing well.

Complacency is creeping back into the market, but we remain vigilant as the earnings season cranks up into full gear. That said, the broad backdrop is still in good shape as evidenced by some of our favorite indicators. We’ve also done some pruning recently (mostly among laggards) as the market’s multi-month run is becoming a bit extended. But we still see opportunities, especially in areas investors have overlooked. All told, near-term wobbles are possible, but we remain bullish as the odds favor the new uptrend bringing us higher over time. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7, but we’ll stay nimble as earnings come in.

This week’s list contains some formerly out-of-favor stocks that are now in much better shape as industry trends improve. Our Top Pick is an engineering firm that shows all the classic signs of being under strong institutional accumulation. We’re OK using dips to enter.

Although the S&P is currently down around 2% from a week ago, new highs on both exchanges have been encouraging lately. This underscores that a broad array of industries have held firm despite softness in the tech space. Understandably, in this mixed environment, cyclical names are outperforming as traders hedge against possible AI sector weakness, with utilities, consumer staples and healthcare names acting well, but there has also been solid participation from highly economically sensitive areas of the market like transport, discretionary retail and hotel/lodging stocks. Not surprisingly, many of the names in this issue are scattered across these categories. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 6, but we’re still fine nabbing some shares in some of the stronger names out there.

This week’s list contains a nice mix of names across several of the stronger industries—including both defensive and cyclical. Our Top Pick is a water transport name benefiting from a robust start to the annual cruise season.

This year has been about as choppy and tricky as we can remember, so nothing the market would throw at us from here would come as a surprise. That said, there’s no question the snapback of the past couple of weeks has been very encouraging—the major indexes have rebounded beautifully, with many regaining their 50-day lines, and individual stocks (especially growth stocks) have done great, with more and more moving back to (or out above) their prior highs. We also like that the bounce has been broad, with the on-again, off-again, rotational action taking a backseat to outright buying. Obviously, the market isn’t totally out of the woods, as most indexes are still range-bound and earnings season is upon us, which will often change the trajectory of things. But we always go with what we see, and the odds are increasing that the September/early October correction is over. We’re moving our Market Monitor back up to a level 7, and could go higher than that if the good vibes continues.

This week’s list represents the broad advance of late, with stocks of all different spots and stripes making the cut. Our Top Pick is Zscaler (ZS), which has lifted to new price and relative performance highs after a six-week pullback.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Atlassian (TEAM)	415	392-405	360-365
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)	26	25-27	21.5-22.5
Continental Resources (CLR)	52	49-51	42.5-43.5
Datadog (DDOG)	157	152-158	135-138
MGM Resorts (MGM)	48	47-48.5	42.5-43.5
Range Resources (RRC)	24	21.5-23	18.5-19
Snowflake (SNOW)	338	322-333	286-292
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	870	845-865	760-770
XENE (XENE)	31	29.5-31.5	25-26
Zscaler (ZS)	301	292-302	262-268

Current Market Outlook


After last Monday’s plunge, the initial rebound was very encouraging, and the fact that the major indexes are still doing their best to hang in there is a plus. But, while many individual stocks are in decent shape, the wild rotation that has been a hallmark of 2021 has returned, with money racing into cyclical areas and out of growth stocks the past couple of days. We’re still sticking with a stock-by-stock approach, and most names, despite their wobbles, remain in fine shape, simply pulling in after big runs; others, however, look worse and should be pared back or sold. To be fair, such action isn’t totally surprising—big breaks like last Monday’s usually have some reverberations, so we wouldn’t say the action is negative as much as it’s a sign we’re still in the tricky, choppy environment that has existed for some time. We’re going to leave the Market Monitor at a level 5 and see how things play out in the days ahead.

The good news is that this week’s list is full of names that have enjoyed outsized accumulation of late. Our Top Pick is Devon Energy (DVN), which looks like a leader of a fresh breakout in energy stocks (and cyclical stocks more broadly). We suggest aiming for dips as these names usually pull in after powerful rallies.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Apache (APA)	23	22-23.5	19.5-20
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding (BHVN)	133	130-134	116-119
Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS)	109	102-106	93-95
Cimarex Energy (XEC)	88	82-85	72.5-74.5
Devon Energy (DVN)	35	32-34	28.5-29.5
DoorDash (DASH)	217	206-212	185-189
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. (SEAS)	58	56.5-58.5	51.5-52.5
Signet Jewelers (SIG)	84	82-85	73-75
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	80	78-81	69-71
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	674	655-675	600-610

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We hope you enjoy reading the May 2021 issue.

The stock market, so far in May, hasn’t continued the robust momentum of the first four months. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comment about the possible need to boost interest rates to ward off inflation seems to be the catalyst. The market and the broad economy will likely respond differently if rates increase. We briefly outline on our asset allocation philosophy, which helps guide us when the market is edgy, in our economic comments.



Earning and proxy voting are in full swing. We’re updating the earnings as they come in.



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Jacob Mintz, Chief Analyst of Cabot Options Trader, Cabot Options Trader Pro, and Cabot Profit Booster talks about Options Trading.
Among the topics he covers:
* Why options should be part of every investor’s toolkit
* How easy, and profitable, it is to do options trades
* How options can be used to enhance the return on trades you are already making
* 2 options trades you can make right now

Top Stocks to Make You Money Now, Regardless of Investing Style | Nancy Zambell, Chief Analyst of Wall Street’s Best Investments and Wall Street’s Best Dividend Stocks, talked about where to make money, no matter what your investing style is. PLUS she shared the best top Growth, Value, and Income picks so far this year!

Many things have changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, and how your portfolio is balanced is one of them. Watch Nancy Zambell, Chief Analyst of Wall Street’s Best Investments and she will tell you what you need to do. In this FREE webinar recording she talks about how the flip from a bull market to a bear market affects what you should be holding, depending on your long-term and short-term goals. She also names a couple of stocks that are good to add to your portfolio, to keep it growing.