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It’s been an outstanding recovery week for the market, with the major indexes all up very nicely, led by the Nasdaq (up around 5%), though most things are up in the 2.5% to 3.5% area coming into today.

The market’s nascent downturn remains in effect, with the short-term trend of most indexes and sectors pointed down and with growth stocks bringing up the rear (though today was a good first step to reverse that). Even so, the pullback from a top-down perspective continues to look normal, so we’re not hiding in our storm cellar, either—we’re hanging onto our resilient, profitable stocks while nibbling here or there on high-odds opportunities. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.

One of the more encouraging things of the past three weeks is that we’re not having trouble finding good-potential names with solid charts, and this week’s list is no different. Our Top Pick is a great growth story and now, after a couple of bad years, all of the firm’s metrics are pointed in the right direction.

It’s fair to say the evidence has taken a small step back in recent days because the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is essentially on the fence, because the broad market has also faded somewhat, and because we’re finally seeing some earnings-induced dents in strong stocks. Of course, the election has finally (almost) arrived, which could easily cause some hecticness in the days ahead—but also remove some uncertainty. Put it all together and we’re still bullish, but we did pull in our Market Monitor to a level 7 and will take it as it comes in the days ahead.

This week’s list has a pretty solid growth component to it, which we do find encouraging. For our Top Pick, we’ll go with a zinger that has a great story and a powerful chart that we think can go far.

It remains about as mixed an environment as we can remember, which does mean the risk of some sort of convulsion (a correction, a re-rotation into laggards, etc.) is elevated. That said, as opposed to the on-again, off-again action from certain areas in January, we have seen the winners persist of late, so that’s where we’re focusing—while also holding some cash and raising stops along the way given what’s going on. For the moment, we’ll stick with a level 6 on the Market Monitor, but again, we’re OK taking swings at strong stocks.

This week’s list is very heavy on the cyclical side of things, with many names perking up and out of long ranges. Our Top Pick has a solid growth profile and has emerged on the upside after a six-month choppy phase.

Our main Cabot Cannabis Investor portfolio has vastly outperformed this year, with a 38% gain as of the March 26 close. That was 15 percentage points better than the 22.8% gain for the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index. We’ve done 31 percentage points better than the 7.1% gains this year in the S&P 500.

Our Cabot Cannabis Plus Insider Portfolio is up 42.6% since I launched it on March 29 last year. That’s more than twice the 16.8% gain in the Russell 2000 index over the same time.

Today’s portfolio changes include one stock joining us with strong earnings growth and a stronger price chart than most stocks during this market correction, and another leaving the portfolio due to frequent downward revisions in earnings estimates.

The stock market will not likely bounce back quickly to its February highs. I’d be completely shocked if any such rebound occurred this month, or even in April. Instead, I expect a significant amount of volatility in the coming days, as buyers and sellers take turns embracing and dumping stocks. Despite the occasional up day in the market, there are many stocks that have not finished falling yet. Most such stocks are companies that will likely be harmed by a pullback in this year’s expected economic growth. After all, when people are quarantined – or just plain staying home and canceling travel and outings – many businesses suffer, not the least of which are travel, restaurant and retail companies.



I know that you will hear some friends or stock market pundits imply that the market will rebound quickly. Please, I beg you not to fall for that rosy prognosis. The market fell nearly 13%. That’s a BIG DROP. It’s going to take quite a few months to recover, and the recovery will most likely be precipitated by news that global economies are recovering from the coronavirus-induced lapse in economic output.



That’s not to say that there won’t be buying opportunities. I will continue to point out growth stocks that have somewhat bullish or tradeable price charts. These will be the ones with which you’ll want to “buy low.”

Lastly, take your time investing your cash. Many stocks will be in trading ranges, so watch for opportunities to buy low and sell high within those ranges

Despite more grumblings out there about how “we are due for a pullback,” stocks continue to hold up. In fact, many growth stocks have done far better than that and are jumping higher on almost a daily basis.

Just because you can’t do the same research a large investment management firm can, that doesn’t mean you can’t make the same trades.

The S&P 500 has become overbought as measured by the 5 day RSI (arrow). This can be some sort of top, but it can also be a sign of strength. Stay tuned. and there was concern about Q1 earnings...

Oil prices have rebounded nicely from historic lows. As energy stocks rise, these three oil ETFs are an efficient way to play the rally.

Supply chain headaches introduced most of us to the importance of retail technology. With the sector slated to continue growing here are a few retail tech stocks and sectors to watch.

Current Market Outlook


Last week’s rally was very encouraging. Some major indexes and a handful of leading growth stocks hit new highs, and many others set up well. Coming after a six-week consolidation, it’s enough to put some sidelined cash to work, and we’re bumping our Market Monitor up a notch in response. That said, be sure to keep your feet on the ground and pick your spots, as the rally has come on extremely light volume (not the end of the world, but it does show a lack of conviction), the Nasdaq is still shy of new highs, and earnings season, which is now underway, is sure to have a big impact on individual stocks into early August.

This week’s list has a broad array of stocks from various sectors that attracted buyers as soon as the pressure came off the market. Our Top Pick is Western Digital (WDC), which lifted to new highs on good volume last week and has already preannounced solid results.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)	0.00	79-83	73-75
CoStar Group (CSGP)	589.55	265-271	245-248
Dana Holding (DAN)	0.00	22.5-23.5	21-21.5
E*Trade Financial (ETFC)	0.00	37.5-40	35-36
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	156-160	147-151
IPG Photonics (IPGP)	0.00	148-153	137-140
Kite Pharma (KITE)	0.00	99-104	87-90
New Relic (NEWR)	103.70	45.5-47.5	41.5-43
Ryanair DAC (RYAAY)	0.00	111-1151	102-104
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)	0.00	92-95	84-86

From July 7 through July 17, we saw a harrowing decline among individual stocks and many major indexes. There was enough damage to suggest selling off a couple of your weaker holdings and possibly taking partial profits in a couple of winners. However, the market found some support last Friday, few stocks have broken down and the indexes have generally held support (though small-cap indexes look sick). Because of that, we remain overall bullish—you shouldn’t push the envelope here, but holding your best performers and keeping your eyes open for new leaders (possibly via earnings gaps) makes sense.

This week’s list surprised us (in a good way) by including a bunch of top-notch growth stories. Our Top Pick this week is Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS), a turnaround in the chip sector with huge projected growth. The stock just enjoyed a huge-volume, earnings-induced surge.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Weatherford International plc (WFT)	0.00	22-23	20.5-21
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)	230.36	92-96	87-89
Vipshop Holdings (VIPS)	14.25	190-200	175-180
Newfield Exploration (NFX)	0.00	42-44	39-40
Cheniere Energy (LNG)	63.82	70-72	65-66
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	117-122	110-112
Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS)	0.00	16-17	14.5-15
Blackstone Group (BX)	49.12	34-36	31-32
Applied Materials (AMAT)	0.00	22-23	20-21.5
Akorn (AKRX)	0.00	31-33	29-30

There are a decent number of warts on this market, including some lackluster action from the broad market, the fact that big-cap indexes have been chopping up and down for the past few weeks, and that small-cap indexes look sick. However, the major trends of the indexes remain up, and most leading stocks, while not tearing up the charts, are still in decent shape. (The many earnings reports last week brought a mixed bag of gaps up and down.) We have our antennae up, especially as more earnings reports push stocks this way and that, but right here the evidence continues to tell us to lean bullish and give our top performers a chance to keep rising.

This week’s list has a bunch of recent earnings winners; if the market is going to continue trending higher, most of these names should do well. Our Top Pick is Steel Dynamics (STLD). We’re usually not big fans of highly-cyclical steel stocks, but STLD just had a big quarter and an even bigger acquisition, with huge earnings forecasts for the next 18 months.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Under Armour (UA)	0.00	65-70	59-60
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	0.00	20.5-22	18.5-19
Silver Wheaton (SLW)	0.00	25-26	23-24
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)	0.00	59-62	55-56
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN)	0.00	36-37	33-34
Polaris Industries (PII)	0.00	143-147	136-137
HCA Healthcare (HCA)	137.60	61-63	56-57
Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)	0.00	190-195	178-180
Cameron (CAM)	0.00	71-73	66-67
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	95-98	89-90

Current Market Outlook


After nine strong up weeks, the past two have seen most of the market hesitate (at first) and then pull back (the S&P 500 fell all five days last week), resulting in a few stocks hitting potholes along the way. In the short-term, we think some further consolidation could easily come, shaking out some weak hands. But bigger picture, the recent action looks normal to us—none of the major indexes and very few leading stocks cracked any meaningful intermediate-term support, and today’s sharp rally is a good sign that buyers are still lurking. Be sure to watch your stops and loss limits, and it’s a good idea to be discerning on the buy side, focusing on strong stocks that have pulled back to solid entry points. Market-wise, though, we remain bullish and are keeping our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has stocks from all corners of the market, which we see as an encouraging sign. Our Top Pick is RingCentral (RNG), a leader in a new cloud communications field with a stock that’s acting great.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	48-51	41.5-43.5
EPAM Systems (EPAM)	188.24	155-160	142-145
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)	97.20	81-85	73.5-75.5
Lending Tree (TREE)	411.51	307-322	278-288
Omnicell (OMCL)	81.03	80-84	73-75
Planet Fitness (PLNT)	0.00	62-64	57-58
Rapid7 (RPD)	63.52	45-47.5	40-41.5
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	100-105	91-94
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	22-24	18-19.5
Tandem Diabetes (TNDM)	74.77	61-65	52-55

Current Market Outlook


Just a few days ago, the intermediate-term trend was looking iffy, but the past few days have shown very encouraging action—every major index has tagged new high ground, and we’re seeing more and more stocks react well to earnings and follow through to the upside afterwards. There are still a couple of yellow lights from some secondary measures (short-term sentiment is a bit complacent; small caps continue to lag), so near-term pullbacks wouldn’t be surprising. But there’s no question the trend of the market and most stocks is up, with many areas resuming their post-election advances. We’ll nudge up our Market Monitor to a level 8 (out of 10) to reflect the improved evidence.

This week’s list has a bunch of stocks that are showing excellent power in recent weeks; many have just gotten going after long sideways phases. Our Top Pick is Lumentum (LITE), a mid-sized player in the optical networking field that’s exploded out of a four-month base. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Box Inc. (BOX)	0.00	16.7-17.7	15-15.7
CDW Corporation (CDW)	0.00	55.5-58	51-52.5
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)	0.00	11-12	9.7-10.3
Lam Research (LRCX)	268.47	112-116	106-108
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)	0.00	21.5-22.5	20-20.5
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	45-48	41-43
Medicines Company (MDCO)	56.98	46-49	42-43.5
Morgan Stanley (MS)	0.00	44-46	41.5-42.5
Sanmina (SANM)	0.00	38-40	35-36
Weibo (WB)	98.16	51-54	48-49

Two weeks ago we saw a tremendous number of stocks hit new highs, which usually indicates some short-term euphoria. Sure enough, the major indexes have generally hesitated in recent days, and under the market’s hood, some previously strong sectors (especially metals and transportation stocks) have come under pressure while a few growth stocks perk up. You should always watch your stops, especially if you have losses, but to this point, we’ve seen little in the way of abnormal action—a few stocks look ugly, but most are still holding key support, and many pullbacks are likely setting up solid entry points. Bottom line, while the short-term is likely to bring some bumps in the road, the odds continue to favor higher prices ahead for the market, so we’re OK putting some money to work in strong stocks during the current retreat.

This week’s list is heavy on the old world stocks that have been leading the rally, though there are a few growth names here, too. Our Top Pick is Berry Plastics (BERY)—it doesn’t have the most thrilling story, but the numbers are excellent and shares are in a solid uptrend.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Berry Global (BERY)	64.22	49.5-51.5	45.5-47
Chemours Company (CC)	0.00	23-24.5	21-22
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	98-103	91-93
KLX Inc. (KLXI)	0.00	43-45	38.5-40
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)	66.65	36.5-38.5	33.5-34.5
MRC Global (MRC)	0.00	19.5-20.5	17.5-18
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	122-126	114-116
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	13.5-14.5	12-13
Thor Industries (THO)	104.76	99-104	90-92.5
Zions Bancorporation (ZION)	0.00	40-42	37-38

Current Market Outlook


The market has put on a good show during the past three weeks, with the major indexes pushing to two-month highs, turning the intermediate-term trend positive. And many sectors (including the most beaten-down sectors like commodity, industrial and transport stocks) have bounced extremely well. All of that is encouraging … but the question is what comes next. Some indexes are starting to butt up against major overhead resistance (the 2,000 to 2,100 area on the S&P 500 has been a thorn in the market’s side for more than a year), and all indexes are still stuck below their longer-term 200-day lines. Overall, we remain neutral—if you see a good set-up, by all means take it, but we would hold off on flooring the accelerator until we see more breakouts and a longer-term uptrend in the general market.

This week’s list has a mix of stocks and sectors—some new, some old, some growth-oriented while others are turning around. Our Top Pick this week is Lumentum (LITE), which is enjoying a round of analyst upgrades on double-digit earnings growth.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zoës Kitchen (ZOES)	0.00	35-37	31.5-32.5
Wayfair (W)	167.03	42-44	39-40
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)	137.10	98-102	88-89
Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR)	0.00	70-73	62-65
MaxLinear (MXL)	0.00	16-17.5	14-15
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)	0.00	41-43	37-38
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	23-24	20-21
Kate Spade & Company (KATE)	0.00	21.5-23	19-19.5
Credicorp (BAP)	0.00	120-125	110-115
Broadcom Limited (AVGO)	266.26	142-146	127-131