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Issues
Last week, our issue was titled “Decision Time,” and after the Federal Reserve’s disappointing report, the market made the decision to go down with force—not only have the major indexes broken their intermediate-term trend lines, but tons of stocks have been nailed as the selling pressures intensify. Yes, there are still many decent-looking names out there, but the market is the elephant in the room at this point; it’s best to hold plenty of cash and do little new buying until stocks find their footing.

The good news from a stock picker’s standpoint is that it’s easiest to spot strength in a weak market; if a stock is holding up well in this environment, it deserves some extra attention. This week’s list has many stocks that fill that bill; our favorite is Infoblox (BLOX), a young, rapidly-growing networking firm. Just be sure to keep any positions small if you decide to buy.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Yelp (YELP) 41.3028-3026-27
The ExOne Company (XONE) 0.0048-5042-43
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 818.8793-10385-88
SodaStream (SODA) 142.9165-6960-61
Charles Schwab (SCHW) 0.0019.5-20.518-18.5
RH Inc. (RH) 252.9367-7160-62
Colfax (CFX) 0.0048-5046-47
Infoblox Inc. (BLOX) 0.0027-2823-24
ANGI Homeservices Inc. (ANGI) 14.8125-2623-24
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) 47.8416-17.513.5-14

It’s been nearly four weeks since the market’s correction and consolidation began, and overall, the damage hasn’t been that great—interest rate-sensitive names have been hammered, but many growth stocks remain in good shape. Now the question is whether buying power will return; holding up is all well and good, but we want to see evidence that institutional investors are adding shares of resilient stocks, even buying them as they reach new high ground. If we see that, we’ll switch the Market Monitor back into the green. But right now, we advise holding some cash and keeping new positions small.

Once again, we’re pleased to see many enticing names in this week’s list. Our favorite is one of the first stocks to hit new-high ground—Oasis Petroleum (OAS) is emerging from a gigantic base, and if the market gets going on the upside, it looks like a new leader.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Tenneco (TEN) 0.0044-4738-40
Shutterfly (SFLY) 94.7150-5244-46
Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 12.5739-4236-37
Northrop Grumman (NOC) 0.0081-8377-78
Morgan Stanley (MS) 0.0025-2622.5-23.5
3D Systems (DDD) 0.0045-4641-42
Delta Air Lines (DAL) 54.2818-1916.5-17
Carter’s (CRI) 0.0070-7266-67
Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) 0.0014.5-15.512-13
CBOE Holdings (CBOE) 0.0041-4237-38

There’s no question that last Thursday’s and Friday’s show of support in the major indexes and many stocks (especially growth-oriented stocks) was a positive sign—it tells you big investors are still interested in buying on weakness at or near support levels. (Many stocks found support near their 50-day lines.) That continues to bode well for the intermediate- and longer-term uptrend. That said, there are still question marks in the short-term—there’s been lots of distribution since mid-May, especially in many defensive and interest rate-sensitive areas, and sentiment remains a bit complacent. By all means, you should hold onto your top performers, but for now, we continue to advise caution when it comes to new buying (keep positions small) and holding some cash.

Perhaps the most impressive thing we saw this weekend were our own screens—this week’s list has a ton of great-looking charts despite the market’s recent sloppiness. Our favorite of the week is Parexel (PRXL), which remains in a tight, controlled uptrend and has great growth prospects.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP) 0.0059-6152-54
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 0.00139-144129-131
Parexel Corp. (PRXL) 0.0044-4641-42
OmniVision (OVTI) 0.0018-1916.5-17
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) 980.83113-118103-105
EQT Corporation (EQT) 0.0078-8274-75
Electronic Arts (EA) 0.0021.5-22.519.5-20.5
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP) 34.9430-32.527-28
Conn’s Inc. (CONN) 0.0051-5346-47
TD Ameritrade (AMTD) 0.0022.5-23.520.5-21

Ever since the market suffered a wave of nasty distribution two weeks ago, it’s been tough to make much money; strength has attracted sellers, interest rate-sensitive groups have been crushed, the broad market has weakened and, today, growth stocks were battered. Now, the long-term trend is still up, and many stocks remain in uptrends, but the market has changed character. Thus, we’re moving our Market Monitor into neutral territory—maybe this retreat will find support soon, and if it does, we’ll be happy to quickly switch back to an aggressive stance. But for now, we believe it’s best to play things a little cautiously and hold some cash.

This week’s list does have a good crop of candidates if you want to nibble on weakness, including a few bigger-cap issues that have great stories. Our favorite is one of those bigger names—Boeing (BA), which, despite its image as a slow-moving behemoth, has a history of sustained moves when the aerospace industry turns up, as it has today.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) 0.0086-8978-80
SunPower (SPWR) 12.2617-1914.5-15
Sohu.com (SOHU) 0.0061-6452-54
SodaStream (SODA) 142.9165-6755-57
Ocwen Financial (OCN) 0.0041-43.536-37
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 0.0065-67.559-60
Illumina Inc. (ILMN) 289.7468-7163-64
Chart Industries (GTLS) 72.0594-9784-95
General Motors Company (GM) 0.0033-3431-32
Boeing (BA) 432.2297-10090-91

Overall, the main trends of most stocks, sectors and indexes remain firmly up; that’s why we’re leaving our Market Monitor in bullish territory. That said, we’re confident in saying that the next month will be more challenging than the straight-up action of the past month—more names are showing wide-and-loose action, which isn’t always abnormal but does make it harder to be patient and find low-risk entries. Remain bullish, but also stick to your plan and don’t be afraid to throw some losers or laggards overboard.

Once again, we’re pleased to see so many attractive, growth-oriented stocks in this week’s list, a sign that the buyers haven’t left the building. Our favorite of the week is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which is part of the strong biotech sector and has enjoyed an orderly pullback of late.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) 0.0059-6354-55
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 818.8795-10083-85
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 512.96245-260220-225
Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 0.0042-4436-37
Pandora Media Inc. (P) 0.0015.5-1713.5-14
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) 221.9142-4339-40
Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) 0.0050-5346-47
First Solar (FSLR) 83.7448-5243-44
3D Systems (DDD) 0.0044-4740-41
American Axle (AXL) 0.0015-16.513-14

Whenever the market acts extraordinarily (either on the upside or downside), investors tend to forget their discipline and act instead on emotion. But the best thing to do is to stick with your plan and keep it simple. In this environment, doing that has allowed us to ride many winners higher as the bull market has strengthened, as well as jump into plenty of names during temporary weakness. Overall, the market’s trend remains strongly up so we’re keeping our Market Monitor in bullish territory. While now likely isn’t a great time to buy a ton of extended stocks, there remain a good number of opportunities as the market continues to rotate into and out of various stocks and sectors.

This week’s list has stocks that are part of many of the recent leading themes—Japan, housing, young software firms, 3D printing and medical. Our favorite of the week is Realogy Holdings (RLGY), an interesting way to play the housing upturn. We’re intrigued with the volume expansion in the stock, as well as the company’s huge earnings estimates going forward.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
The ExOne Company (XONE) 0.0040-4234-36
Workday (WDAY) 194.8865.5-6962-64
TripAdvisor (TRIP) 55.1458-6054-55
Toyota Motor (TM) 0.00122-127105-110
Splunk (SPLK) 207.6743.5-4541-42
Santarus (SNTS) 0.0020.5-2219-20
Realogy Holdings (RLGY) 0.0052-53.546-48
PulteGroup (PHM) 45.9322-23.520-21
Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 0.0031-3429-30
DIRECTV (DTV) 0.0062-6456-58

The market continues to act excellently, and we’re pleased to see more and more growth-oriented stocks flex their muscles, while many defensive sectors take a breather. Of course, part and parcel of that is that we’re seeing a little froth; investor sentiment is getting a bit giddy as some names explode higher. That doesn’t mean a top is imminent—our Market Monitor is solidly in the bullish camp—but it does mean you should be prepared for some news-driven potholes. Overall, you should be holding your best performers and putting more money to work at good entry points, but be sure not to get carried away after a good few months.

This week’s list has an impressive array of stocks that are showing extremely powerful accumulation. Our favorite of the week is SodaStream (SODA), which is very volatile but just broke out on earnings last week on very big volume.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Uni-Pixel (UNXL) 0.0033-3529-30
SodaStream (SODA) 142.9155-5852-53
Spirit Airlines (SAVE) 57.0327-28.525.5-26
Oceaneering International (OII) 0.0070-7367-68
Ocwen Financial (OCN) 0.0041-42.537.5-38
Meritage Homes (MTH) 102.2048.5-5245-46
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) 980.83110-11798-100
Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) 81.0238-4035-36
Electronic Arts (EA) 0.0020.5-2219-20
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP) 34.9427-28.523-24

The title says it all—overall, the trend remains up for the major indexes and most stocks and sectors, and so our Market Monitor remains in bullish territory. But there’s also no question that the environment is whippy; big moves happen almost daily, and earnings season continues to bring a bunch of big moves in both directions. None of this is bad, per se, but it does mean you have to be more discerning with your buys and make sure your timing is right and your stops aren’t too tight.

This week’s list has yet another impressive crop of stocks with good stories and charts that have shown large recent buying power (usually on earnings). Our favorite is Yelp (YELP), a relatively recent IPO that has a great, sustainable story, rapid sales growth and a stock that just exploded higher on earnings.

Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Yelp (YELP) 41.3029-31.526-27
Trulia (TRLA) 0.0033-3529.5-30.5
Seagate Technology (STX) 0.0039.5-41.536-37
Parexel Corp. (PRXL) 0.0042-4439-40
IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE) 0.00165-170156-158
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ) 0.0023-24.521-22
Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) 0.0049-50.544-45
Guidewire (GWRE) 90.6039.5-4135-36
Gilead Sciences (GILD) 75.1051-5447-48
EQT Corporation (EQT) 0.0073-7567-69

Just as it appeared the sellers were taking control, the market bounced back in impressive fashion last week, and encouragingly, we saw more than a few growth stocks pop on earnings. Is it a major new buy signal for the market? We can’t go that far, at least not yet—plenty of stocks are still stuck in the mud, and the market remains volatile as earnings season continues. Even so, we’ve seen enough strength to move our Market Monitor back to the bullish camp, so you can look to extend your line as opportunities arise.
More important these days than the market’s daily gyrations is the consistent stream of enticing ideas being produced by our screens. This week’s list has another batch of high-potential names (with no defensive-type stocks at all). Our favorite being ARM Holdings (ARMH), which roared back to life after a two-month rest thanks to a great quarterly report.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Toyota Motor (TM) 0.00113-115103-104
Ryland (RYL) 0.0043-4538-39
RockTenn (RKT) 0.0095-9790-92.5
Pandora Media Inc. (P) 0.0013-14.512-12.5
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 423.92210-220188-192
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) 0.0054-5650-52
Fifth & Pacific (FNP) 0.0020-2118-18.5
D. R. Horton (DHI) 66.5525-26.522.5-23
ARM Holdings (ARMH) 0.0044.5-45.540-41
ANGI Homeservices Inc. (ANGI) 14.8122.5-2420-21

With most major indexes still within 2% or 3% or their recent peaks, we can’t say the market is a horror show. But the evidence pointing toward a fatigued market continues to pile up, with last week’s waves of distribution (on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday) telling us sellers are gaining strength. We’re not predicting anything, but right now, making lots of money is very difficult; even the strong defensive sectors are choppy, and if you buy a stock at the wrong time, forget about it. Thus, we’re leaving our Market Monitor in neutral territory, and advise you to play things cautiously—keep positions small, keep your laggards on tight leashes and hold some cash.

Just as important, though, you should also keep your eyes open for a resumption of the uptrend. This week’s list has a few potential shooting stars, though there’s also a flavor of safety to some of the names. Our favorite of the week is First Solar (FSLR), which is dancing to its own drummer after a bullish near- and long-term earnings forecast a couple of weeks ago.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Santarus (SNTS) 0.0017.5-18.515-16
Shutterfly (SFLY) 94.7142.5-44.539-40
ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) 0.0095-9987-88
ServiceNow (NOW) 341.8636-3933-34
NetSuite, Inc. (N) 0.0077-7973-74
Medicines Company (MDCO) 56.9833-3429-30
Cheniere Energy (LNG) 63.8225-2622-23
Home Depot (HD) 0.0073-74.570-71
First Solar (FSLR) 83.7436-37.532-34
Actavis (ACT) 0.0095-9790-91

The market isn’t in awful shape, but it’s not in as good shape as the major indexes would have you believe—the advance has been narrowing for a while now, and last week, as the Dow and S&P leapt to new highs, many stocks and sectors lagged behind. It’s not the end of the world and there’s nothing that says the market can’t chop around for a bit, get its act together and march higher; we’re certainly not advising you to sell everything. But given the evidence, and the fact that earnings season picks up this week, we think it’s best to keep our Market Monitor in neutral territory and see what comes.

Backing up that thought is this week’s list—there are a few very enticing ideas, but it’s not exactly chock-full of young whipper-snappers. Our favorite of the week is GameStop (GME), a stock that’s strong because of industry-specific factors that should boost earnings later this year.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Yahoo (YHOO) 0.0023-2421.5-22
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 818.8740-4235-36
Toyota Motor (TM) 0.00105-11098-100
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 512.96195-205180-185
Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) 0.0030.5-31.528.5-29
International Paper Company (IP) 0.0045-4642-43
GameStop (GME) 0.0029.5-3127-28
Avis Budget Group (CAR) 0.0026-2824-25
BlackRock (BLK) 0.00250-260240-245
BE Aerospace (BEAV) 0.0058-6055-56

The internal condition of the market began to weaken in mid-March, as defensive-type stocks and sectors led the way higher, while everything else stagnated or worse. And last week we saw some real selling pressures emerging; it’s not the end of the world, but it’s certainly a change in character for a market that’s been chugging relentlessly higher since the start of the year. We’re moving our Market Monitor to neutral and will be watching carefully—it’s possible this will be just another brief shakeout, with earnings season rescuing the bulls. But, as always, it’s best to go with the evidence, and right now, that means raising some cash, limiting new buying and building a watch list for when the bulls re-take control.

On the plus side, we’ve been pleased with the solid growth stories we’ve seen in our screens the past few weeks, despite the market. Our favorite this week is Fifth & Pacific (FNP), a turnaround and special situation play in the retail sector that’s set to ride one super-powerful brand.
Stock NamePriceBuy RangeLoss Limit
Zillow (Z) 76.6450-5244-46
ValueClick (VCLK) 0.0027-2925-26
Safeway (SWY) 0.0024-2522-22.5
Splunk (SPLK) 207.6739.5-4136.5-37
Sony Corp. (SNE) 0.0016-1715-15.5
SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) 0.0053.5-5550-51
Parexel Corp. (PRXL) 0.0038-3936-36.5
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) 0.0053-5546-47.5
Gilead Sciences (GILD) 75.1045-4741-42
Fifth & Pacific (FNP) 0.0019.5-2117.5-18

Updates
Has there ever been anything as overvalued as SpaceX (SPCX)?

Elon Musk’s rocket and space-based internet company reported $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. That’s less than half the revenue declining electronics store chain Best Buy (BBY, $41.7 billion) generated last year, less than International Paper Company (IP, $23.6 billion), and barely more than Casey’s General Stores (CASY, $17.6 billion). Those three companies have a combined market cap of roughly $67 billion. As of this writing, SpaceX has a market cap of $2.7 trillion. That’s more than the combined market cap of Walmart (WMT), JPMorgan (JPM) and Visa (V). Together, those three companies generated $847 billion in revenue last year.
Small caps continue to hold up well. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is up modestly since last Thursday and is trading just below the fresh all-time highs it hit earlier this week. The group’s resilience stands out, especially against a backdrop of narrowing leadership and ongoing rotation beneath the market’s surface.

The main macro development this week was the Fed’s June meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, which confirmed a shift in policy direction.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s bounce has been a good one, and the intermediate-term outlook remains bright. That said, near term, there are still some crosscurrents (rotation into the broad market, Dow outperforming the Nasdaq) that tell us growth stocks could throw us another curveball in the coming week or two. Overall, then, we’re mostly standing pat, but we’re going to add a half-sized stake in Guardant Health (GH) here, leaving us with a still-good-sized cash position of 37% or so. Details below.
Stocks started this week with a huge rally as the Iran ceasefire deal appears to be the real thing.

Of course, it’s been months of supposed peace deals falling apart. It’s hard to believe. I’m sure that fact is holding the market back somewhat. But this one is different for a couple of reasons.
Stocks are starting off this week with a huge rally as the U.S. and Iran have reached a ceasefire deal.

We’ve been here before. These peace deals have fallen apart several times. I’m sure that fact is holding the market back somewhat. But this one is different for a couple of reasons. First, it’s the furthest a peace deal has gotten with both sides agreeing and independent verification from Pakistan. Second, this is what a peace deal would look like at this point if it’s real and lasting.
[Note: The Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update won’t be published next Friday, June 19, due to the market being closed for the Juneteenth holiday.]

Before we get into the main topic for today’s newsletter update, a quick note on the portfolio is in order. I’m continuing our “spring cleaning” effort that we began last week by trimming a couple more of our holdings, but I’m also adding a new position to take the place of the recent deletions.
After two near-record-setting months, stocks are encountering their first real turbulence since March. It’s no surprise.

While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.
Stocks look set to enter the summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed, volatility has ticked up, and there’s been renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and valuation concerns in some of the market’s biggest winners.

At the same time, the macro backdrop remains a mix of resilience and intermittent turbulence. While economic data continues to hold up, energy prices remain elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict – which has no end in sight – keeping upward pressure on inflation and yields.
Tech, commodity, AI, and Explorer stocks struggled this week as concern over capital expenditures increased. Mideast tensions intensified and inflation numbers came in yesterday at their highest rate in over three years, fueled by rising energy costs. The combination of anticipated higher interest rates and rising bond yields impacted the price of precious metals, with gold sliding below $4,200 an ounce and silver falling below $64 an ounce.
Stocks look to enter summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed and volatility has ticked up thanks to renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and open-ended questions about valuations in some of the hottest areas of the market.

There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.
The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.
A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.
Alerts
Institutions have increased their shares in this semiconductor company by 0.39%; the company trimmed losses by a penny—better than analysts expected; and this analyst is calling for an almost-double in the stock price.
China’s currency woes have discounted this automobile company’s shares, providing an undervalued buying opportunity. Kandi Technologies Group Inc. (KNDI) from Top Stocks under $10 Kandi Technologies Group Inc. (KNDI) reported a 46% rise in second-quarter revenue as the Taiwan-based company continues to bring its electric cars to more vehicle-share programs in...
This contributor has two global ideas today—a more speculative country ETF and an international pharma company, still selling at a reasonable valuation.

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI)
from Positive Patterns

I think WisdomTree Trust - WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) has good upside potential over the next 5 years and maybe longer, although...
This money center bank beat estimates by eleven cents, posting earnings of $1.51 per share for last quarter. Six analysts have increased their estimates in the past 30 days.

Citigroup (C)

from AlphaProfit Sector Investors’ Newsletter


Citigroup (C) beat analysts’ second quarter EPS forecast by 12% to help our May recommendation exit with...
Despite an earnings miss, the shares of this railroad car equipment manufacturer gained momentum, yet remain undervalued. TheStreet.com rates the company a buy, based on “robust revenue growth, reasonable debt, notable return on equity, attractive valuation levels and impressive record of earnings per share growth.”

Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)
from The Lancz...
Portfolios
Strategy
A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.
A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.
Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.
Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.