The introduction features a few international trade issues, including disputes about international court systems within NAFTA and CETA, and a potential sunset clause in NAFTA. I’d go on to itemize which steel companies might benefit or be harmed by the latest round of steel tariffs, but I frankly believe that last week’s newest steel tariffs are simply a temporary negotiating ploy pertaining to NAFTA. Therefore, I thought it might be more useful to discuss what’s currently happening with NAFTA negotiations.

Current Market Outlook


While the action of most major indexes wasn’t overwhelmingly positive last week (the S&P 500 was up about 0.5%), there was a bunch of constructive action—the major indexes shook off three big worries (Italian and Spanish political uncertainties and new tariff threats) and some pushed above near-term resistance, with growth-oriented stocks leading the way. There are still many potential potholes out there, including divergences (and overhead) in the major indexes and investor sentiment that’s a bit complacent. However, the primary evidence (trends of the indexes and price/volume action of leading stocks) continues to improve. We’re bumping our Market Monitor up a couple of notches into bullish territory and, while you shouldn’t force it, you can look to take a more positive stance going forward.

This week’s list has a ton of growth-y stories, and even those that have more sturdy stories have recently staged excellent breakouts. Our Top Pick is GDS Holdings (GDS), a smaller Chinese firm with an excellent story. The recent pullback looks like a decent entry point.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	202-210	188-192
Align Technology (ALGN)	316.20	324-334	295-300
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS)	46.21	40-42	36.5-38
Cheniere Energy (LNG)	63.82	63-66	58-59.5
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	773.32	430-445	410-416
GDS Holdings Limited (GDS)	80.15	36.5-39.5	32-34
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)	97.20	58-60	54-55
Loxo Oncology (LOXO)	186.59	178-186	155-159
Novocure (NVCR)	0.00	28-30	25.5-26.5
Tiffany & Co. (TIF)	132.10	127-131	116-119

While thinking about how to frame this month’s small-cap opportunity I was hit by the memory of a Ted Talk I heard last winter. The talk features organizational psychologist Adam Grant describing what he calls “originals”—thinkers who dream up new ideas and then do what it takes to put them into action.

Emerging market stocks aren’t doing all that well, but Chinese ADRs are showing considerable strength. That’s the bad-news/good-news summary of today’s commentary. And the theme continues in today’s issue, where we’re adding a stock that has been on a breakout run since the middle of May. Our timing wasn’t right when we took our first position in the stock in late 2017, but the recent rally is offering us a second chance, if we can get the timing right. For the tantalizing details, read on!

The market has gotten “exciting” again, for better or worse. In today’s issue we’re making lemonade from lemons, adding a medical REIT to the high yield tier.

Over the past few weeks, the market has given us a bunch of presents—and now the market is trying to take some of our presents away. But this should come as no surprise. The only “surprise” is what excuse the media finds to pin the blame on, whether it’s China or Russia or Italy or interest rates or Trump or simply an economy that’s too good to last.
I’ll leave the finger-pointing to someone else. Instead, I’ll keep picking high-potential stocks and managing the portfolio to maximize gain and minimize risk.

Current Market Outlook


There’s been a bunch of news during the past few trading days, including this morning’s revelation that a likely autumn Italian election could threaten the euro, as well as continued China trade shenanigans, both of which attracted sellers. Today’s move did put a dent in a couple of indexes—the NYSE Composite’s intermediate-term green light went up in smoke, for instance—but the other indexes continue to hold most of their early May gains. Much more selling from here could put a fork in this rally, so our antennae are up. But right here, we are still leaning bullish though we are knocking our Market Monitor down a notch. Thus, continue to hold your resilient performers, but don’t forget to take some partial profits when you have them and hold some cash until the buyers truly take control.

This week’s list has an array of ideas from various corners of the market. Our Top Pick is Carpenter Technologies (CRS), a specialty metals firm with huge earnings estimates and whose stock is hitting new highs.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Carpenter Technology (CRS)	53.25	56.5-58.5	51-53
Foundation Medicine (FMI)	136.68	88-92	80-82
iQIYI (IQ)	0.00	21.5-22.5	19-19.5
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)	304.69	100-104	93-96
Macy’s, Inc. (M)	36.36	33-35	30-31
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)	43.31	59-62	52-54
PBF Energy (PBF)	38.93	42-45	38-39.5
Turtle Beach (HEAR)	26.70	14.5-17	11-12.5
WTW (WTW)	100.47	76.5-79.5	70-72
ZTO Express (ZTO)	28.84	19.5-21	17.5-18.2

Here is your summer issue of Cabot’s 10 Best Marijuana Stocks, with updates on the industry as a whole as well as all the important fundamental developments regarding the stocks in the portfolio.

In general, I remain very bullish on the marijuana sector long-term. I’m impressed by both the creativity demonstrated by the management of these companies, and the appetite for investment in the sector, by both individual investors and private equity. The future is bright.

[Note: The Cabot Turnaround Letter weekly update won’t be published next Friday, June 19, due to the market being closed for the Juneteenth holiday.]

Before we get into the main topic for today’s newsletter update, a quick note on the portfolio is in order. I’m continuing our “spring cleaning” effort that we began last week by trimming a couple more of our holdings, but I’m also adding a new position to take the place of the recent deletions.

After two near-record-setting months, stocks are encountering their first real turbulence since March. It’s no surprise.

While stocks go up an average of 10% a year, they rarely do so in a straight line. And after the S&P 500 rallied nearly 20% in April and May and the Nasdaq shot up nearly 30%, a pullback of some kind – or possibly even a true correction – was to be expected. It seems it’s happening all at once.

Stocks look set to enter the summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed, volatility has ticked up, and there’s been renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and valuation concerns in some of the market’s biggest winners.

At the same time, the macro backdrop remains a mix of resilience and intermittent turbulence. While economic data continues to hold up, energy prices remain elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict – which has no end in sight – keeping upward pressure on inflation and yields.

Tech, commodity, AI, and Explorer stocks struggled this week as concern over capital expenditures increased. Mideast tensions intensified and inflation numbers came in yesterday at their highest rate in over three years, fueled by rising energy costs. The combination of anticipated higher interest rates and rising bond yields impacted the price of precious metals, with gold sliding below $4,200 an ounce and silver falling below $64 an ounce.

Stocks look to enter summer near all-time highs, but leadership has narrowed and volatility has ticked up thanks to renewed scrutiny on the AI trade and open-ended questions about valuations in some of the hottest areas of the market.

There’s also been more focus on the evolving macro landscape, which features a resilient U.S. economy but stubbornly high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran conflict, and somewhat elevated yields. We’re now looking at a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike, with the odds of a hike by December now well over 50%.

The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The overall market remains in good shape, though we are seeing some exuberance on the upside and also a few leaders begin to act sloppy. Near term, then, it’s still a coin flip as to what comes, but the vast majority of intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we took partial profits in Marvell (MRVL) earlier this week; tonight, we’re buying a half-sized position (5% of the account) in Bloom Energy (BE), which is extremely volatile but also strong and coming off a few weeks of rest. Our cash position will now be around 28%.

This market just keeps going higher.

Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.

Despite the negative headlines and volatility, stocks just keep going.

After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.

This week’s Memorial Day observance marked the traditional onset of the summer vacation season for millions of Americans. It’s a time of traveling, sightseeing, picnics and parties. It’s also the peak season for enjoying cold, carbonated beverages like soda pop and energy drinks.

With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.

On the heels of a miserable March and a euphoric April, I wrote several weeks ago in this space that I thought May would determine which direction the market is truly headed, at least in the intermediate term. We have our answer, and it’s a definitive “up.”

All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.

This stock reported first-quarter EPS that fell well short of expectations last night and the stock is trading 6% lower pre-market.

This vehicle reseller just opened its sixth location in Brazil. Its shares recently crossed their 50-day moving average, a bullish indicator.

Verizon (VZ) reported earnings that missed estimates this morning. U.S. Bancorp (USB), on the other hand, reported estimate-beating earnings.

The top five holdings in this fund are Oracle Corp (ORCL, 3.70% of assets); Tencent Holdings Ltd (TCTZF, 3.53%); United Technologies Corp (UTX, 3.22%); American International Group Inc (AIG, 3.19%); and Citigroup Inc (C, 2.98%).

This financial company beat earnings estimates by $0.03 in the last quarter, and two analysts have recently increased their forecasts for this year and next.

This healthcare company beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.07 last quarter, and is on target for double-digit growth in the next five years.

This home builder beat analysts’ earnings estimates by $0.07 last quarter, and its shares were recently upgraded by RBC Capital Mkts to ‘Outperform’.

The stock market weakened in recent days, with many industries spiking downward. The only industry that anybody’s been asking me about is steel, so let’s get right to that.

The Chinese internet company beat earnings estimates by $0.19 last quarter and Barclay’s recently upgraded its shares to ‘Overweight’.

This technology company’s shares were just initiated at Macquarie with an ‘Outperform’ rating.

In addition to Barron’s, JP Morgan analysts have ranked this solar company’s stock ‘Outperform’.

We still believe the odds favor the next big move being up, but near-term, the outlook is up in the air. Thus, we’re holding our resilient performers, but we’re also holding some cash and getting rid of stocks that break support.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.